CoinGecko Report Points to Q3 Market Contraction

The Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), the regulatory body which oversees the digital assets market within the emirate of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has taken corrective action against seven unlicensed crypto entities. Fines issuedAccording to an enforcement notice, published to the VARA website on October 8, the agency issued fines relative to a number of firms that it found were engaging in unlicensed virtual asset-related trading activity. The fines ranged from between 50,000 to 100,000 UAE dirhams (AED), equivalent to between $13,600 and $27,200 in U.S. dollars. The agency outlined that it was taking this corrective action in order to continue its enforcement efforts so as to safeguard Dubai’s virtual asset ecosystem. In its enforcement notice, the regulator did not disclose the names of the entities that have been sanctioned. The agency said that its investigations are ongoing, in partnership with local law enforcement.  A statement from the Regulatory Affairs and Enforcement division within VARA was provided, stating: “VARA will not tolerate any attempts to operate without appropriate licenses, nor will we allow unauthorized marketing of virtual asset activities. Our marketing regulations further emphasize Dubai’s commitment to ensuring transparency and always protecting stakeholder interests.”Photo by Alex Block on UnsplashCease and desist ordersIn addition to fines, VARA also issued the seven firms with cease and desist orders for breaching marketing regulations. Marketing by crypto firms is an area the regulator has been focusing on recently. Last month, VARA published a press release, outlining that it had updated its crypto regulations to specifically deal with marketing-related matters. Alongside that update, it issued a guidance document, clarifying the responsibilities of virtual asset service providers (VASPs) relative to marketing practices. A schedule of fines was provided in the case of a breach of the regulations, while the update set out a need for a mandatory disclaimer on marketing material to indicate that virtual assets are volatile and may lose their value, fully or partially. The Dubai regulator is not the first to home in on the marketing activities of crypto businesses. In the UK, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) enforced additional rules related to crypto marketing in late 2023. Some crypto businesses found the requirements too arduous and left the UK market as a direct consequence. Public warningIn its enforcement notice, the Dubai regulator also had a message for the trading and investing public, stating: “This public warning is VARA’s market notice to all to avoid engaging with any unlicensed firms.” The regulator added that interacting with unlicensed entities exposes both individual investors and institutions to both financial and reputational risk.  Furthermore, it warned of “potential legal consequences” for regulatory violations. “Only firms licensed by VARA are authorised to provide virtual asset services in/from Dubai, and the Authority remains steadfast in its commitment to protect consumers and investors, and to preserve market integrity,” the regulator further asserted. 

Analysts expect crypto market cap to triple or more next yearThe Korbit Research Center, affiliated with South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Korbit, published a report last Friday that provides projections for the crypto market in 2024.The paper includes contributions from its team, notably head of research Peter Chung, as well as research analysts Choy Yoon-young, Kang Dong-hyun and Kim Min-seung.Peter Chung predicts that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies could soar to $5 trillion, more than three times greater than its current level of $1.6 trillion. He attributes this potential growth to three key factors: the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve easing its monetary policy, the potential approval of spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the anticipated Bitcoin halving event expected in April 2024.Photo by Pierre Borthiry — Peiobty on UnsplashFactors driving crypto market growth in 2024Peter Chung suggests that the growth of the crypto market will be driven by the expanding utility of virtual assets. He believes that once ETFs for bitcoin and ether are approved, these cryptocurrencies will become more versatile as investment options. This, in turn, is expected to enhance their reputation and foster wider adoption, having a significant influence on the broader crypto ecosystem beyond the two most dominant cryptocurrencies.Real-world assets and financial firmsChoy anticipates that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve spot bitcoin and ether ETFs by the first half of next year. On a different note, Kang focuses on the importance of blockchain technology, particularly emphasizing real-world assets (RWAs) and roll-up solutions. Kang highlights that since RWAs are closely linked with traditional financial institutions, an influx of capital from these entities is likely to boost the RWA market. This interaction between traditional finance and blockchain technology could be a key driver of growth in the sector.Regulatory changes and landscape shiftKim Min-seung, another analyst from the team, forecasts that upcoming regulatory developments could alter the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. A notable development in this regard is the forthcoming implementation of the Virtual Asset User Protection Act in South Korea, set for July next year. According to Kim, these changes might result in a scenario where only competitive cryptocurrencies survive.Kim elaborates that the perception of virtual assets is poised for a shift. Currently, crypto investors tend to base their decisions on expectations of arbitrary cryptocurrency inflation. However, once new regulations are implemented, investors are likely to start assessing the actual value of virtual assets more critically. This shift in approach could lead to a more value-driven and stable cryptocurrency market, as speculative tendencies might decrease and a focus on intrinsic value increases.According to local news outlet website The Asia Business Daily, Peter Chung anticipates further growth in the cryptocurrency market next year, following its rebound this year. He suggests that this growth trajectory will not only continue but also attract increased attention from the public.

While global cryptocurrency sentiment remains subdued, authorities and state-linked investors in Abu Dhabi are deepening their engagement with digital assets through expanded regulation and increased capital allocation. On Dec. 8, stablecoin issuer Tether and cryptocurrency exchange Binance announced they had secured regulatory approvals from the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), the international financial center and free economic zone in the UAE capital. The moves signal a continued effort by the United Arab Emirates to integrate blockchain technology into its formal financial system, creating a contrast with the broader market’s current “extreme fear” rating of 22 on the Alternative Fear and Greed Index.Photo by DrawKit Illustrations on UnsplashTether, Ripple stablecoins approvedTether confirmed that its USDT stablecoin has been designated as an Accepted Fiat-Referenced Token within the ADGM. This status allows financial entities licensed by the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) to conduct regulated activities involving USDT across a broader range of blockchain networks, including Aptos, Celo, Cosmos, Kaia, Near, Polkadot, Tezos, TON, and TRON. The approval builds on previous authorizations for USDT on Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche, and follows the FSRA’s recognition of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin last month. Binance fully cleared for regulated launch Simultaneously, Binance announced it has secured full authorization from the FSRA to operate a regulated platform within the financial center. Pending final operational preparations, Binance is scheduled to commence regulated activities on Jan. 5, 2026. The exchange will operate in Abu Dhabi through a three-entity structure that separates key functions, mirroring traditional financial infrastructure. Nest Exchange Limited (currently Nest Services) will function as the regulated arm for spot and derivatives trading, while Nest Clearing and Custody Limited will manage clearing and settlement. Broker-dealer activities will be handled by a third entity, Nest Trading Limited (currently BCI Limited). Circle awarded FSP for paymentsMore recently, Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, announced the receipt of a Financial Services Permission (FSP) license from the FSRA. The license allows Circle to act as a Money Services Provider within Abu Dhabi’s International Financial Centre (IFC), enabling it to support regulated payment and settlement services for businesses, developers, and financial institutions across the UAE. Circle has been expanding its regulatory presence in the region throughout the year. In February, the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) recognized the company’s USDC and EURC tokens as permitted crypto assets under its virtual asset framework. This regulatory expansion comes amid the UAE’s efforts to develop a comprehensive financial compliance framework. A recent report by the Global Finance & Technology Network identified the UAE as one of seven jurisdictions globally that meet three core standards for anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing compliance. Those standards include know-your-customer (KYC) and identity verification, suspicious transaction reporting, and implementation of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Travel Rule. Institutional capital inflows riseIn parallel with the regulatory push, investment vehicles linked to the Abu Dhabi government have increased their exposure to digital assets. Bloomberg reported that in the third quarter, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council, a Mubadala subsidiary, increased its position in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF more than threefold to nearly eight million shares. Separately, the Royal Group, an investment firm associated with the Abu Dhabi royal family, currently holds roughly 6,516 Bitcoin, according to Arkham data. An earlier Crypto Briefing report noted that this acquisition was carried out through its majority-owned subsidiary, Citadel Mining. These simultaneous developments in licensing and capital allocation suggest a coordinated strategy to establish Abu Dhabi as a hub for institutional digital assets, with a focus on long-term infrastructure despite current market fragility.