Top

Matrixport forecasts SEC bitcoin ETF rejection

Markets·January 03, 2024, 11:59 PM

In a recent report, Singaporean digital asset financial services firm Matrixport has made a bold forecast regarding the future of bitcoin prices and the potential rejection of spot bitcoin ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States.

https://asset.coinness.com/en/news/d621e6f0630dbe234b59dc2db2793b71.jpg
Photo by André François McKenzie on Unsplash

Minority view

While most ETF and crypto industry analysts in recent weeks have been suggesting a greater than 90% chance of the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin ETF coming from the SEC, Matrixport has had its say, speculating that the regulator will once again reject all such applications.

 

In a note published to its website on Wednesday, the firm stated:

”The current five-person voting Commissioners leadership critical for the ETF approval of the SEC is dominated by Democrats. SEC Chair Gensler is not embracing crypto in the U.S., and it might even be a very long shot to expect that he would vote to approve bitcoin spot ETFs.”

 

The report emphasizes the dominant influence of Democratic leadership within the SEC, particularly Chairman Gary Gensler's cautious approach to crypto regulation. The Democrat-led administration in the United States has been decidedly anti-crypto in its policies throughout the ongoing term of U.S. President Joe Biden. Matrixport also suggests a potential delay in ETF approvals until Q2 2024, dampening hopes of an imminent market boost.

 

Potential bitcoin price slump

Should the company be right in that speculation, it extrapolates that this turn of events will potentially lead to a substantial decline in bitcoin's value, with the bitcoin unit price possibly dropping to as low as $36,000.

 

This revelation has sent shock waves through the market, prompting Matrixport to advise investors to take protective measures. The recommended strategies include purchasing put options or engaging in direct shorting of bitcoin to mitigate potential losses. With an ominous Jan. 5, 2024 deadline looming, traders could decide to hedge their long exposure by purchasing $40,000 strike put options expiring at the end of January or opting for outright short positions through options.

 

Matrixport's report challenges the previously optimistic expectations surrounding bitcoin's future, highlighting the SEC's likely rejection of spot ETFs as a significant factor. Despite the platform's earlier bullish stance, it now expresses skepticism about the SEC's willingness to embrace cryptocurrencies.

 

The firm contends that the current influx of funds into crypto, driven by expectations of ETF approval, could result in significant liquidations if the SEC denies the proposals. The report estimates that about $10 billion of the $14 billion additional investments might be linked to optimistic ETF prospects. Notably, Matrixport foresees a rapid 20% decline in bitcoin's price, reverting to a range of around $36,000 to $38,000 should the SEC reject the ETFs.

 

Positive long-term outlook

Despite the potential setback with the SEC, Matrixport maintains a positive long-term outlook for bitcoin, expecting the BTC price to end 2024 above the $42,000 mark, where it started the year. The analysis also considers historical trends in U.S. election years and bitcoin mining cycles for the potential rally.

 

At the time of writing, the bitcoin unit price is down 4.75% over the course of the past 24 hours, now standing at $42,838. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming SEC decision and may well be heeding Matrixport's advice to navigate potential market volatility.

 

 

More to Read
View All
Web3 & Enterprise·

Jul 08, 2023

Sega Curbs Interest in ‘Boring’ Blockchain Gaming

Sega Curbs Interest in ‘Boring’ Blockchain GamingJapanese video game behemoth Sega Corp., once an advocate for blockchain gaming, is reevaluating its involvement in the sector as the global crypto industry continues to face challenges.In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Shuji Utsumi, the Co-Chief Operating Officer of Sega, revealed that the company will withhold its major franchises from third-party blockchain gaming projects to protect the value of its content.Photo by Pat Krupa on UnsplashHalting blockchain game developmentAdditionally, Sega is temporarily halting the development of its own blockchain games. These decisions mark a significant shift for the 60-year-old gaming studio, which previously joined other industry players in exploring the potential of blockchain technology to enhance game appeal. However, the recent collapse of the digital currency market has dampened enthusiasm for such initiatives.While Sega withdraws from blockchain gaming, it does plan to allow external partners to utilize its lesser-known characters, such as those from Three Kingdoms and Virtua Fighter, for non-fungible tokens (NFTs). NFTs serve as digital asset ownership certificates.Sega’s intention to venture into the NFT community drew criticism from some gamers who viewed crypto technology as environmentally harmful. Utsumi emphasized the importance of creating enjoyable gaming experiences and expressed his skepticism about the “play-to-earn” model associated with blockchain games, describing such games as “boring.”Reservations on Web3 adoptionIn addition to the uncertainties surrounding blockchain gaming, Utsumi expressed reservations about the adoption of Web3 technology in Sega’s upcoming “super game” initiative. This initiative involves the release of high-budget online multiplayer games starting in 2026. Sega is currently assessing whether the technology will gain traction in the gaming industry before committing to its implementation.Sega’s strategic shift reflects a broader cooling trend relative to the Web3 concept, which implicates an internet built on blockchain technology. Despite attracting significant investments in the past, Web3 has faced criticism and diminishing interest from major players like Ubisoft.However, Sega will continue to offer its lesser franchises to several blockchain games that will be announced later this year. The company also plans to invest hundreds of millions of yen in related projects, as the technology still holds value in enabling the transfer of characters and items between different games. Sega remains open to further involvement in blockchain gaming as the technology matures.Big brand cautiousnessUtsumi acknowledged that the views expressed by blockchain advocates may seem extreme to many in the video game industry. Nevertheless, he recognized the importance of risk-takers who pioneer new technologies, referring to them as the “first penguins” who should not be underestimated.Sega’s cautious approach reflects the need to strike a balance between innovation and maintaining the core aspects of enjoyable gaming experiences, while closely monitoring the evolution of blockchain and Web3 technologies in the industry.It’s also likely that the gaming sector’s most coveted brands will remain cautious on blockchain gaming while newcomers like Animoca Brands can better afford to be the risk takers that drive blockchain gaming forward. Earlier this week, Animoca’s Co-Founder Yat Siu said that he was bullish where blockchain gaming is concerned.

news
Web3 & Enterprise·

Aug 15, 2023

ClearVue Partners-Backed Crypto Startup Fund Closed at $50M

ClearVue Partners-Backed Crypto Startup Fund Closed at $50MThe CVP NoLimit Fund I, a crypto-centric fund established by China’s ClearVue Partners, a private equity specialist, has been closed out, reaching a funding level of $50 million.Photo by micheile henderson on UnsplashFunding target achievedThe closing of the fund was announced recently by No Limit Holdings, an investment partnership specializing in global crypto assets based in Malta. ClearVue had entered into a joint venture with No Limit Holdings in order to establish the fund. No Limit Holdings was founded by former Binance Chief Strategy Officer Gin Chao. Partnering with Chao in that venture is another former Binance executive, Anatoly Kondiyakov, who served as Binance’s Head of APAC Institutional Sales in Singapore for four years.News of the fund first emerged in October 2022, when the fund promoters started to distribute a pitch deck. It’s understood that the fund was targeting investment into layer one blockchains prior to their native tokens going live.Chao made the following statement relative to the closing of the fund:“We are grateful for the confidence and trust that our partners have placed in us for this first fund, particularly given the breadth of industries our LP base represents and the challenging macroeconomic conditions during this period. At the same time, this has created an ideal window to deploy capital into the exciting opportunities that the current market presents.”Web3 “where the Internet was in the late 90s”ClearVue Partners Founder, Harry Hui, said that the firm was “excited to team up with Gin and the NLH team. They have deep sector expertise and an incredible track record of success.” Hui added that “Web3.0 is where the Internet was in the late 90s and as blockchain adoption increases, we believe there will be significant value creation for both for our investors as well as for our consumer and technology portfolio companies.”The CVP NoLimit Fund I has already invested in more than twenty crypto projects located globally. Two of them have been listed on multiple digital asset exchanges. Meanwhile, the fund’s administrators have suggested that it has established a robust pipeline of investible projects, and that it has the expectation to invest in an additional twenty projects over the course of the next twelve months.Seed-stage focusThe fund has been focusing on early-stage projects and strategic funding rounds, with individual investments of between $250,000 and $3 million. Some of the projects it has backed thus far include Binance.US, crypto and blockchain infrastructure firm Mysten Labs, Singapore-based dApp developer Hogwarts Labs, Connext Labs which claims to be the HTTP of Web3, and decentralized digital asset money market, IQ Labs.Venture capital investment into the crypto and Web3 space broke all records during the last crypto bull market. Naturally, it has suffered a huge decline in its wake. However, the closing out of this $50 million fund demonstrates that ultimately new money will return to the sector.This is further exemplified by a recent announcement by Kraken Ventures, the venture investment wing of the well-known crypto exchange business, setting out that it is raising a second $100 million fund, earmarked for investment within the sector.

news
Policy & Regulation·

Sep 28, 2023

Shanghai Court Recognizes Unique Traits of Bitcoin

Shanghai Court Recognizes Unique Traits of BitcoinThe Shanghai Second Intermediate People’s Court has added a layer of legitimacy to Bitcoin despite China’s prevailing anti-crypto stance.In a recently published report, the court recognized digital currencies such as Bitcoin as being unique and non-replicable. It went further still in singling out Bitcoin as being distinct from the thousands of other cryptocurrencies that are currently in existence.Photo by Zhou Xian on UnsplashSun chimes inThe significance of this development has caught the attention of Justin Sun, the Founder of the TRON blockchain network, who took to the X social media platform (formerly Twitter) to share insights from the report. Sun wrote:”The Second Intermediate People’s Court of Shanghai believes that with the development of internet technology, digital currencies represented by Bitcoin possess uniqueness and non-replicability.”Legal attributesDelving deeper into the report’s content, it becomes evident that the court was engaging in a discussion about the legal attributes of Bitcoin and how judicial decisions should be approached in cases involving cryptocurrencies.One striking aspect of the report is how it acknowledges the usage of cryptocurrencies in illegal financial activities, such as illicit fundraising. In this instance, the court has indirectly acknowledged the financial nature of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, despite the fact that a ban has been in place on trading Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies since 2021.That said, the report also notes that due to the regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies, the legal attributes of digital currencies remain ambiguous, creating challenges in their judicial handling. Despite some courts attempting to disregard the “monetary” and “property” attributes of digital currencies, these efforts have proved unsuccessful.Inherent characteristicsRegarding the monetary attribute, the courts still identify the sale price of digital currencies in their judgments. When it comes to property attributes, these courts struggle to ignore the inherent property value presented by digital currencies during legal proceedings.While acknowledging Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and lack of centralized control, the article still underscores its “major functions of currency,” such as scalability, circulation, storage, and means of payment, making it a global currency.Future implicationsThe legal opinion expressed by the Shanghai court provides a notable boost to the legitimacy of Bitcoin and other digital currencies. It asserts that these tokens undeniably possess value, even if the People’s Bank of China chooses not to formally recognize them.Moreover, the court’s inclination toward classifying cryptocurrencies as personal property aligns with another report from the Chinese courts as well as rulings in other jurisdictions, such as Singapore. Similarly the Shanghai court acknowledges that Bitcoin can be acquired through various means, including mining, inheritance, and buying and selling.The court’s recognition of the enduring value of cryptocurrencies echoes the sentiment that value is a collective human judgment. In this respect, the Shanghai court’s perspective aligns with the reality that many Chinese citizens continue to use digital currencies as a medium of exchange despite the existing ban.The Shanghai court’s unintentional validation of Bitcoin’s unique attributes and value may have broader implications for the legal status and recognition of cryptocurrencies in China and beyond. This latest development could contribute to a more nuanced approach to cryptocurrency regulation and legal interpretation in the future.

news
Loading