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Hong Kong is gearing up for the potential approval and implementation of both bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and stablecoin regulations in 2024, with further progress achieved through the first filing of a spot bitcoin ETF in the Chinese autonomous territory.Photo by André François McKenzie on UnsplashHarvest Fund filesHarvest Fund (HFM), a major asset manager based in China, has taken the lead by filing for a spot bitcoin ETF with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFA), as reported by Tencent News. While details on the Harvest Fund bitcoin ETF remain limited, the company is hoping for its debut on or after the Lunar New Year holiday, which lands on Feb. 10. Reports suggest that Hong Kong's regulatory body may follow a path similar to the U.S. SEC, approving multiple spot bitcoin ETF applications to ensure fair market access. Although Harvest Fund was the first to apply, other regional financial institutions have expressed interest in launching similar products within the year. Livio Weng, Chief Operating Officer of crypto exchange HashKey, revealed that approximately ten asset management firms are developing spot crypto ETFs for Hong Kong, with applications already submitted to the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission. Earlier this month, Venture Smart Financial Holdings (VSFG) announced its plan to launch a spot bitcoin ETF within the first quarter of this year, contributing to the growing momentum. Stablecoin interestIn tandem with the push for spot crypto ETFs, there is a rising interest in stablecoins. Multiple Hong Kong companies, including Harvest Global Investments, RD Technologies and VSFG, are reportedly engaging in discussions with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) about potential stablecoin trials. These trials aim to explore use cases ahead of anticipated stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong. The HKMA's December consultation paper outlined licensing requirements for fiat-pegged stablecoins, positioning them as a bridge between traditional finance and crypto markets. Sean Lee, senior advisor and head of stablecoin at VSFG, told The Block that it is committed to applying for sandbox inclusion, along with consortium partners, to showcase the potential of programmable digital money while meeting prudential requirements. An HKMA spokesperson confirmed ongoing preparations for the imminent launch of the stablecoin sandbox arrangement. The key criterion for applicants is a demonstrated commitment to a reasonable plan for issuing fiat-reference stablecoins (FRS) in Hong Kong. FRS refers to fiat-reference stablecoins pegged to the value of a fiat currency and backed by a government-issued currency, aligning with the most common stablecoin model. Eddie Yue, CEO of the HKMA, highlighted the potential of stablecoins, stating they could serve as the interface between traditional finance and the virtual asset market. The parallel development of spot crypto ETFs and stablecoin regulations underscores Hong Kong's commitment to fostering digital assets while ensuring investor protection through effective market oversight. Crypto ETFs offer expanded access, while stablecoin trials enable controlled experimentation, establishing gateways between traditional finance and the emerging crypto sectors.  

Hong Kong Legislator Courting US Crypto Exchange CoinbaseRecently, Johnny Ng, a member of the Hong Kong Legislative Council, expressed his interest in the future development of Coinbase, a major US cryptocurrency exchange, in Hong Kong. In a tweet today, Ng said that he had been in contact with Coinbase and that he would keep the public updated on further progress.Photo by Ruslan Bardash on UnsplashNg’s invitation to crypto exchangesThis tweet follows Ng’s earlier invitation to Coinbase and other global crypto trading platforms to apply for licenses in Hong Kong. His comments are in line with Hong Kong’s efforts to become a hub for cryptocurrency and blockchain-related activities. As of June 1, a new licensing regime for centralized virtual asset trading platforms (VATPs) went into effect in the Chinese special administrative region.Differing opinionsDespite the enthusiasm shown by Ng, there are differing opinions on Hong Kong’s current suitability as a crypto-friendly jurisdiction. Leo Weese, the co-founder and President of the Bitcoin Association of Hong Kong, expressed reservations in an interview with crypto media outlet CoinDesk.Weese described Hong Kong’s current setup as “highly unattractive” for crypto businesses. He cited factors such as a relatively small and untested market, limited banking partnerships, and restrictive product offerings.Despite these challenges, Weese acknowledged some potential advantages, stating that Hong Kong’s classification of tokens as non-securities allows for the trading of securities that are deemed unregistered in other jurisdictions. It is important to note, however, that Weese cautioned against assuming that moving operations to Hong Kong would protect Coinbase from US regulatory measures.Moody’s altered outlook on CoinbaseMeanwhile, Moody’s, the American credit rating agency, recently revised Coinbase’s outlook from stable to negative, citing uncertainties surrounding the impact of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) charges on Coinbase’s operation as an unregistered securities broker.

Despite Bitcoin’s recent decline, a South Korean analyst says investors’ trust in the market remains intact. He added that a U.S. crypto market structure bill, which Congress could approve as early as December, may give investors a chance to buy the dip ahead of a potential rebound. According to Etoday, Hong Sung-wook of NH Investment & Securities, one of South Korea’s major brokerage firms, noted that the crypto market has given back all gains made since mid-October, with Bitcoin briefly slipping below $100,000. Most altcoins also saw steep declines, erasing the advances they posted following roughly $19 billion in liquidations around Oct. 10. In this environment, Solana’s year-to-date performance has turned negative despite the recent launch of spot Solana ETFs in Hong Kong and the U.S., while Ethereum has similarly surrendered its earlier gains.Photo by Michael Förtsch on UnsplashContext from past declinesHong framed the latest pullback in a historical context. Since 2018, Bitcoin has recorded a daily closing price drop of more than 20% on seven occasions. The latest decline of about 21% from peak to trough, he said, is broadly in line with previous downturns. He added that Bitcoin is now less likely to experience the extreme volatility seen in earlier years, citing growing institutional participation and its increasing use in so-called “debasement trades,” or hedges against fiat currency inflation. Building on this, Hong attributed the recent weakness primarily to the liquidation wave and the temporary hit to sentiment. However, he argued that confidence could recover faster than in past stress events, emphasizing that trust in the market has not been fundamentally damaged, unlike in prior downturns triggered by unexpected “black swan” shocks. Policy progress could lift market moodIn the near term, Hong pointed to progress on the U.S. crypto market structure bill as a potential catalyst. Further movement on the bill, he said, could help improve sentiment, similar to the supportive reaction seen around the passage of the stablecoin GENIUS Act. Other market observers have expressed a comparable view on Bitcoin’s outlook. BeInCrypto underscored three key factors supporting its stance in an analysis published on FXStreet. First, citing Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score, it noted that Bitcoin has managed to hold above the $100,000 level thanks to a balance between whale sell-offs and continued accumulation by other investors. Second, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts projected for December are seen as another supportive element. Third, Bitcoin continues to trade above its 50-week moving average (WMA), a technical level that has underpinned the market since BTC moved above it in 2023; even when brief sell-offs have pushed prices below this line, buyers have stepped in to restore it by the weekly close. Warning signs of weakening momentumAt the same time, signals of moderating momentum have emerged. Another BeInCrypto report pointed to CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score, an on-chain metric that gauges the asset’s upside potential, which fell to zero on Nov. 6, its lowest level since January 2022, just before the market entered its last major bearish phase. This more cautious tone is reflected in institutional forecasts as well. Crypto financial services firm Galaxy Digital last week lowered its year-end price target for Bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000. The firm cited heavy whale sell-offs, shifting investor focus toward AI, gold, and stablecoins, and the weak performance of Bitcoin-focused digital asset treasury (DAT) companies as key reasons for its downgrade. Even so, Galaxy Digital said it continues to view Bitcoin as a structurally strong asset.From a longer-term perspective, some high-profile experts have also trimmed their expectations. According to Decrypt, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood told CNBC she now sees Bitcoin reaching about $1.2 million in a bullish scenario by 2030, down from her previous $1.5 million target. She attributed the revision mainly to the rapid growth of stablecoins, which are expanding faster than Bitcoin and emerging as a new payment method, a trend she suggested could dilute some of Bitcoin’s potential price momentum over time.