SEBA Bank Receives Conditional Approval for Crypto Services in Hong Kong

As the cryptocurrency market anticipates the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the subsequent boost to bitcoin’s unit price, Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of family office Maelstrom, has issued a warning of potential market turbulence. Hayes, better known as the founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has moved on to Hong Kong-based Maelstrom, a family office that invests in early stage infrastructure ventures that implicate a move towards the decentralization of everything.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashMacroeconomic risk factorsIn a detailed blog post on Friday, Hayes outlines a number of macroeconomic variables that could lead to a bitcoin unit price downturn. Hayes begins by highlighting the depletion of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has served as a significant driver for risky assets over the past year. This program allows qualified banks and investment firms to park cash and earn interest on it. The RRP balance has rapidly declined from a record high of $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 to $700 billion. Hayes projects it to reach its historical average of $200 billion by March. As this liquidity source dwindles, he anticipates negative impacts on bonds and stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies. Fed BTFP expirationThe second factor contributing to the potential market turmoil is the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12. This crucial Fed facility is designed to provide longer-term loans to commercial banks. The mechanism aids banking sector stability. Hayes is concerned that the BTFP might not be extended. Such an eventuality could lead to bankruptcy for banks holding massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings. It could lead to a “liquidity rug pull” event reminiscent of the banking crisis in March of the previous year. The crypto OG predicts that such an eventuality would force a response. “The combination of a lack of liquidity gushing from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover the bond losses on banks’ balance sheets will decimate the financial markets globally,” he wrote. Hayes asserts that the combination of reduced liquidity from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover bond losses could have a global impact on financial markets. In response to this scenario, he predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates during its March 20 meeting and reinstate the BTFP funding line. ‘Healthy’ correctionIn terms of bitcoin’s price, Hayes foresees a “healthy” correction of 20% to 30% from early March prices if the outlined scenario unfolds. However, he suggests the decline could be as much as 40% if BTC rallies to $60,000-$70,000 in the coming weeks. Despite this temporary plunge, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s resilience, emphasizing its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally. In a recent podcast appearance, Hayes expressed the view that the business model of U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether will be challenged once multinational banks receive the go-ahead to offer fiat-backed stablecoins. Overall, Arthur Hayes has urged investors to be cautious and to prepare for potential market volatility in March, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interconnected factors influencing both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market. 

Crypto Features in India-UK Markets DialogueAccording to a press release published by HM Treasury, the 2nd India-UK Financial Markets Dialogue meeting held on Wednesday featured six key themes with crypto featuring among them.©Pexels/SkitterphotoThe event brought officials from both nations together in the first in-person financial dialogue since 2017. While the meeting considered banking, insurance and reinsurance, capital markets, asset management and sustainable finance, it also allotted time to discuss payments and crypto-assets.CBDC knowledge sharingBoth sets of officials discussed the scope for augmenting knowledge on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) by way of mutual learning. The officials agreed on the importance of robust global approaches relative to the emergence and development of crypto-assets internationally. The joint statement issued following the meeting revealed that progress relative to the G20 roadmap for enhancing cross-border payments was a matter which was discussed. It’s an item that could have major implications for the use of cryptocurrency in cross border transactions.Global collaborationThe meeting marks another move towards greater global collaboration on policy and regulation relative to digital payment systems and crypto assets. Earlier this month, India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the introduction of any new regulations on digital assets needs to be coordinated on a global basis. “The G20 and its members agree that it’s not going to be possible to have an independent, standalone country dealing with crypto assets”, Sitharaman stated at a news conference following a meeting of central bank governors and G20 finance ministers.There’s a growing recognition among politicians, government and central bank officials that decentralized money doesn’t end at a territory’s borders due to its inherently decentralized properties.Taking steps to regulate cryptoWhile on the one hand strategizing as to how digital assets can be best controlled on a global level, India is also taking its own individual steps towards national regulatory action. Recently, it expanded its Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) to include consideration of digital assets. The newly amended PMLA will now deal with the exchange of digital assets for fiat money and vice versa. It also considers safekeeping, transfer and administration relative to cryptocurrency. Furthermore, its broadened scope deals with financial services offered related to virtual or digital assets.Rajagopal Menon, the VP of India’s leading cryptocurrency exchange WazirX, has said that “regulations levied by India have been baby steps toward institutional participation in the crypto exchange.” While market participants in the digital assets space are apprehensive about the regulatory measures that governments and state regulators choose to adopt, so long as the objective isn’t to regulate the innovation out of existence, such developments can have a profoundly positive effect on the digital assets market.There’s no doubt that in line with Menon’s point relative to the Indian context, the same scenario can play out in all digital markets given the application of the right regulatory approach. Institutional investment for the most part has eluded crypto despite many already heralding its arrival in recent years. Institutions move slowly and the only way in which they will be comfortable in working with digital assets is with complete regulatory clarity having been set out.So while some in crypto may be concerned at the mention of global regulatory coordination in respect of digital assets, so long as it doesn’t go too far, greater work towards improved regulatory clarity in the digital assets market can be a catalyst for further adoption and growth in India, the UK and further afield.

Several South Korean crypto-only exchanges have long been struggling to keep their business afloat due to their prolonged weak performances. The local news outlet Etoday reported that the persistent underperformance of these local crypto exchanges is mounting pressure on their corporate operation and management, resulting in them shutting down their businesses. The situation hinders them from meeting the requirements set by the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) of the Financial Services Commission (FSC).  Their inability to generate sufficient revenue, due to faltering token trading volumes, makes complying with the FIU guidelines a daunting task.Photo by Anne Nygård on UnsplashCascading closure of crypto exchanges According to crypto industry insiders, local crypto-only exchanges including Cashierest, Coinbit, Huobi Korea, Probit and Tennten have announced their service closure as early as the second half of last year. On Nov. 6, Cashierest announced it was shutting down its services, with Coinbit following suit in the same month. The cascading closure announcements from crypto exchanges raised concerns about their potential harm on investors.  In an effort to protect crypto investors, the FIU has released a statement that local crypto exchanges are obliged to meet the requirements of the FIU in compliance with the Virtual Asset User Protection Act, despite their closing of services. Furthermore, the regulator said finalizing business closure requires due assessment by the FIU.  "Virtual asset service providers (VASPs) must notify their users of the closure and explain how to reclaim their assets at least one month before the business closing date. They must also support users to withdraw their assets for at least three months before closing," the FIU stated.  Struggling to meet FIU requirements However, some point out that it would be challenging for near-bankrupt crypto exchanges to run a customer service center for more than three months. Some exchanges allow users to deposit and withdraw their assets until their closure, as they would under normal conditions, but charge additional fees afterward. "It is very demanding to operate customer services when we're seeing no actual gains," one exchange official said.  It has been found that some crypto exchanges failed to register a change in their business state with the FIU, which is mandatory in the event of business location or contact changes, under the Financial Transaction Reports Act.  When Etoday reporters visited the offices of some of these crypto exchanges, they were met with empty rooms. One person who is familiar with the matter said, "The exchange has moved its office to another location and is scheduled to resume service in March."