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As the cryptocurrency market anticipates the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the subsequent boost to bitcoin’s unit price, Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of family office Maelstrom, has issued a warning of potential market turbulence. Hayes, better known as the founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has moved on to Hong Kong-based Maelstrom, a family office that invests in early stage infrastructure ventures that implicate a move towards the decentralization of everything.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashMacroeconomic risk factorsIn a detailed blog post on Friday, Hayes outlines a number of macroeconomic variables that could lead to a bitcoin unit price downturn. Hayes begins by highlighting the depletion of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has served as a significant driver for risky assets over the past year. This program allows qualified banks and investment firms to park cash and earn interest on it. The RRP balance has rapidly declined from a record high of $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 to $700 billion. Hayes projects it to reach its historical average of $200 billion by March. As this liquidity source dwindles, he anticipates negative impacts on bonds and stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies. Fed BTFP expirationThe second factor contributing to the potential market turmoil is the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12. This crucial Fed facility is designed to provide longer-term loans to commercial banks. The mechanism aids banking sector stability. Hayes is concerned that the BTFP might not be extended. Such an eventuality could lead to bankruptcy for banks holding massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings. It could lead to a “liquidity rug pull” event reminiscent of the banking crisis in March of the previous year. The crypto OG predicts that such an eventuality would force a response. “The combination of a lack of liquidity gushing from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover the bond losses on banks’ balance sheets will decimate the financial markets globally,” he wrote. Hayes asserts that the combination of reduced liquidity from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover bond losses could have a global impact on financial markets. In response to this scenario, he predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates during its March 20 meeting and reinstate the BTFP funding line. ‘Healthy’ correctionIn terms of bitcoin’s price, Hayes foresees a “healthy” correction of 20% to 30% from early March prices if the outlined scenario unfolds. However, he suggests the decline could be as much as 40% if BTC rallies to $60,000-$70,000 in the coming weeks. Despite this temporary plunge, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s resilience, emphasizing its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally. In a recent podcast appearance, Hayes expressed the view that the business model of U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether will be challenged once multinational banks receive the go-ahead to offer fiat-backed stablecoins. Overall, Arthur Hayes has urged investors to be cautious and to prepare for potential market volatility in March, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interconnected factors influencing both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market. 

The Abu Dhabi Agriculture and Food Safety Authority has announced a ban on cryptocurrency mining on farms, addressing concerns over the misuse of agricultural land.Photo by Kamil Rogalinski on UnsplashClaims of farm misuseAccording to the Khaleej Times, the Authority has informed UAE farmers that their lands are not to be used for Bitcoin and crypto mining. This activity is deemed a “misuse of the farm for purposes other than its intended use.” The new regulation aims to preserve the primary agricultural function of these lands and imposes penalties of up to 10,000 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (approximately $2,722) for violations. Cryptocurrency mining requires significant computational power and electricity, which conflicts with the farms’ intended agricultural use.  Broader support for miningDespite this specific restriction, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) maintains a supportive stance towards cryptocurrency and cryptocurrency mining beyond a farm setting. In 2023, the country emerged as a notable player in the global Bitcoin mining industry, with a combined mining capacity of around 400 megawatts, contributing approximately 4% of the global Bitcoin hash rate. It’s proven to be a popular place in which to locate a mining facility as the country has a robust infrastructure. Stable power is essential in order for miners to be able to run their machines in a sustainable manner. Additionally, the government has generally been supportive of the activity, fostering a conducive environment for both crypto and Bitcoin mining and blockchain technology more generally. Furthermore, the country occupies a strategic location at the crossroads of major trade routes. Regulatory clarity has also been provided by the authorities in the UAE with regard to how crypto mining activity is to be carried out. While this latest move against mining within a farm setting is a restriction, it still feeds into that overall framework of regulatory clarity and certainty. Attracting mining firmsGiven the aforementioned reasons in support of mining in the UAE, the Middle Eastern country continues to attract cryptocurrency mining firms.  In December of last year, a Dubai-headquartered Bitcoin mining company, Phoenix Group, struck a $380 million deal with Chinese mining equipment manufacturer MicroBT. That same month, the company was listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX). In May 2023, Abu Dhabi-based digital assets development company Zero Two entered into a partnership with North American crypto miner Marathon Digital with a view towards developing the region’s first large-scale crypto mining facility. Beyond mining, the location is also proving popular for crypto firms more generally. In May 2023, Chainalysis, a leading blockchain analytics company, established its regional headquarters in Dubai. Similarly, Blockdaemon, a provider of institutional infrastructure, expanded its operations in Abu Dhabi, facilitated by the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), a key financial regulator. Speaking at the Dubai FinTech Summit recently, Reece Merrick, Managing Director of enterprise blockchain company Ripple for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, said that “the UAE has done a remarkable job in really putting itself in a position to be the global crypto hub.”

With the Chinese autonomous territory of Hong Kong having introduced its new Stablecoins Ordinance on August 1 and local taxi operators required to facilitate two forms of digital payment from April 1, 2026, a case is being made that this eventuality lends itself to an ideal test case for stablecoin payments.Photo by The Transport Enthusiast DC on UnsplashA perfect test caseIn an opinion piece published by Bloomberg on Aug. 3, columnist Andy Mukherjee asserted that Hong Kong taxis would be “a perfect stablecoin test case,” suggesting that the timing is ideal for stablecoins, given that a new licensing regime has come into effect via the city’s Stablecoins Ordinance.  In an interview, Franz Bergmueller, CEO of Switzerland-headquartered crypto bank AMINA Bank, said that “stablecoins for me are a killer use case.” On social media, AMINA Bank claimed that it would be “a major step in the right direction” if Hong Kong taxis start to accept stablecoin payments from customers. It emerged last December that the city’s taxi drivers would be required to install both electronic payment facilities and navigation systems, based on a filing made to Hong Kong’s Legislative Council. The filing outlined that while some taxi drivers currently offer electronic payment options, many insist on cash payment. The city’s Transport and Logistics Bureau suggested that “drivers offer at least two electronic payment options, including both QR code and non-QR code methods.” Stablecoin payments overseasThere has been some limited use of stablecoins as a payment method by taxi services in places with unstable currencies such as Argentina and Venezuela. The world’s most popular ride-hailing service, Uber, is understood to be studying the feasibility of offering stablecoin-based payments. In 2024, Asian rival Grab commenced accepting crypto, including the USDT and USDC stablecoins, as a means of payment for ride-sharing and food delivery services in Singapore. Last month, it extended that facility to its platform users in the Philippines.In June it emerged that Tawasul Transport, a taxi service in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), had partnered with Al Maryah Community Bank (Mbank) and Abu Dhabi’s Department of Municipalities and Transport to launch a pilot program implicating the use of AE Coin, a UAE dirham-pegged stablecoin, as a means of payment. Bloomberg’s Mukherjee suggests that for entities now applying for stablecoin licensing, this new digital payment requirement for Hong Kong’s taxi services could provide an immediate segue to onboard users and make a new stablecoin product popular. Mukherjee places specific emphasis in this regard on what actions Ant Group may take. It emerged recently that Ant Group, an affiliate of the Alibaba Group, intends to apply for stablecoin licensing across Asian markets, including Hong Kong. The company is already a leader in Asia in digital payments through Alipay, which serves 1.3 billion users.Although Ant Group is based in mainland China, Hong Kong would offer the company the opportunity to test the establishment of a stablecoin for retail payments.