OPNX Makes a Play for Struggling Crypto Lender Hodlnaut

In a recent report, Singaporean digital asset financial services firm Matrixport has made a bold forecast regarding the future of bitcoin prices and the potential rejection of spot bitcoin ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States.Photo by André François McKenzie on UnsplashMinority viewWhile most ETF and crypto industry analysts in recent weeks have been suggesting a greater than 90% chance of the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin ETF coming from the SEC, Matrixport has had its say, speculating that the regulator will once again reject all such applications. In a note published to its website on Wednesday, the firm stated:”The current five-person voting Commissioners leadership critical for the ETF approval of the SEC is dominated by Democrats. SEC Chair Gensler is not embracing crypto in the U.S., and it might even be a very long shot to expect that he would vote to approve bitcoin spot ETFs.” The report emphasizes the dominant influence of Democratic leadership within the SEC, particularly Chairman Gary Gensler's cautious approach to crypto regulation. The Democrat-led administration in the United States has been decidedly anti-crypto in its policies throughout the ongoing term of U.S. President Joe Biden. Matrixport also suggests a potential delay in ETF approvals until Q2 2024, dampening hopes of an imminent market boost. Potential bitcoin price slumpShould the company be right in that speculation, it extrapolates that this turn of events will potentially lead to a substantial decline in bitcoin's value, with the bitcoin unit price possibly dropping to as low as $36,000. This revelation has sent shock waves through the market, prompting Matrixport to advise investors to take protective measures. The recommended strategies include purchasing put options or engaging in direct shorting of bitcoin to mitigate potential losses. With an ominous Jan. 5, 2024 deadline looming, traders could decide to hedge their long exposure by purchasing $40,000 strike put options expiring at the end of January or opting for outright short positions through options. Matrixport's report challenges the previously optimistic expectations surrounding bitcoin's future, highlighting the SEC's likely rejection of spot ETFs as a significant factor. Despite the platform's earlier bullish stance, it now expresses skepticism about the SEC's willingness to embrace cryptocurrencies. The firm contends that the current influx of funds into crypto, driven by expectations of ETF approval, could result in significant liquidations if the SEC denies the proposals. The report estimates that about $10 billion of the $14 billion additional investments might be linked to optimistic ETF prospects. Notably, Matrixport foresees a rapid 20% decline in bitcoin's price, reverting to a range of around $36,000 to $38,000 should the SEC reject the ETFs. Positive long-term outlookDespite the potential setback with the SEC, Matrixport maintains a positive long-term outlook for bitcoin, expecting the BTC price to end 2024 above the $42,000 mark, where it started the year. The analysis also considers historical trends in U.S. election years and bitcoin mining cycles for the potential rally. At the time of writing, the bitcoin unit price is down 4.75% over the course of the past 24 hours, now standing at $42,838. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming SEC decision and may well be heeding Matrixport's advice to navigate potential market volatility.  

Seychelles-incorporated crypto exchange platform Bitget recently released findings from a study on Bitcoin's upcoming halving, revealing that the vast majority of surveyed investors predict bitcoin will achieve a new all-time high (ATH) in 2024. Separately, other market commentators and analysts appear to be bullish on bitcoin ahead of the scheduled cut in Bitcoin mining rewards.Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash84% anticipate new bitcoin ATHThe study, based on anonymized data from 9,748 participants worldwide, focused on investor perceptions surrounding the halving's impact on their investment decisions. 84% of participants anticipate a new ATH for bitcoin during the next bull run, with only East Europe showing a percentage lower than 80%. Over 50% predict bitcoin's price to be between $30,000 and $60,000 by the time the halving occurs in April. Meanwhile, 30% foresee the bitcoin unit price going higher than $60,000. Off the back of the data that has arisen via the study, Bitget managing director Gracy Chen suggested that it is indicative that 2024 will be a significant year for the bitcoin market. Crypto investment plansApproximately 70% express plans to increase their crypto investments, with the highest conviction in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and East Europe regions. Western European investors are characterized as "short-term cautious" and "long-term optimistic." In addition to the Bitget study, many market commentators appear to have arrived at a similar conclusion. In July of last year, Standard Chartered Bank forecasted a 2024 unit price for bitcoin of $120,000. The bank reaffirmed that view last month, going further still in stating that by 2025, it expected bitcoin to reach a price of $200,000, largely due to capital inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in the United States in January. Broader market sentimentTaking to social media on Monday, crypto analyst Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments proposed a potential 500% price return for bitcoin if a bullish halving pattern plays out. Edwards envisions bitcoin reaching $280,000 in 2025. Like Standard Chartered, he cites the January bitcoin ETF launch as the driving force, likening it to a "second halving." He argues that major technological developments have historically seen quicker rates of adoption. Crypto trading analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts a pre-halving surge to $48,000 and an eventual breakout toward an all-time high in Q3/Q4 of 2024. The next Bitcoin halving is expected in April 2024, historically associated with increased scarcity and subsequent price surges. Pseudonymous macroeconomist @Micro2Macr0 took to the X social media platform on Monday, stating:"Only 2.5 months till the #Bitcoin #Halving. The world is getting more unstable and you have the greatest hedge ever invented sitting in front of you. What are you waiting for?"  Meanwhile, "British HODL" warned that recent developments may result in a break from previous trading patterns. He stated:"Everyone says 12 months after the halving the shock starts for #Bitcoin price. . . . I think there is a high likelihood that the ETF’s change the cycle you’re expecting. Be aware of that.”

OKX Enters Final Stages of Securing VASP License in Hong KongSeychelles-headquartered cryptocurrency exchange OKX is on the verge of securing its virtual asset service provider (VASP) license in Hong Kong, with approval expected as early as June 2024.That’s according to Li Zhikai, OKX’s Global Chief Commercial Officer, who, in a recent interview with Infocast, shed light on the exchange’s preparations, including collaborations with banks and other related technological integrations.Photo by Simon Zhu on UnsplashThe Road to a VASP LicenseObtaining a VASP license in Hong Kong is no easy feat. Regulatory requirements impose a 30% cap on investors’ crypto investments, ensuring they do not risk more than one-third of their net income.Furthermore, the Hong Kong regulator has implemented stringent crypto asset storage protocols, mandating that crypto exchanges securely store 98% of their crypto assets in cold wallets. Additionally, they must provide insurance and compensation arrangements to protect clients’ interests.Cost has been another issue. In June it emerged that Web3 businesses have been shelling out anywhere between 20 million and 200 million Hong Kong dollars ($2.55 million and $25.5 million) in order to see out the licensing application process.Alongside these licensing difficulties, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued a warning last month aimed at unregistered crypto businesses engaging in “improper practices” within the Chinese autonomous territory.OKX’s remarkable growthWith OKX having reported growth within the Hong Kong market earlier this year, pointing to the onboarding of over 10,000 new users in just one month, it’s likely that licensing is both worthwhile and necessary for the firm despite the difficulties in obtaining it. In March the exchange established OKX Hong Kong, a local entity, with the primary objective of securing a VASP license and operating as a virtual asset trading platform within the city.Hong Kong’s decision to open its doors to retail investors as of June 1 generated significant interest, with more than 80 foreign and Mainland China-based crypto companies expressing their intent to establish a presence in Hong Kong and obtain local licenses. Among these firms are Gate.io, Huobi, CoinEx, and Interactive Brokers.Expanding global reachNotably, OKX has been actively acquiring licenses in various jurisdictions worldwide as part of its strategic expansion plan. The exchange secured a Minimal Viable Product (MVP) license from the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) in June. This licensing milestone followed the establishment of a new office at the Dubai World Trade Center by OKX.Before venturing into the Middle East, OKX took steps to obtain a French digital asset service provider (DASP) license in May, aiming to position France as its regional hub in Europe. To facilitate this, OKX established a local subsidiary, OKX France. The application and registration process with the French regulator is expected to enable OKX to operate in full compliance with European regulations.Hong Kong embarked on its journey to become a crypto-friendly jurisdiction over the course of the past 12 months, but particularly so when it unveiled its licensing framework for cryptocurrency exchanges catering to retail customers earlier this year. However, only a handful of platforms, such as HashKey and OSL, managed to secure licenses for offering retail crypto trading services. Others, including Huobi and Gate.io, are still awaiting that regulatory nod.