Indian Supreme Court Scolds Government over Crypto Regulation Delay

Rotonda and Bithumb META to Co-Host Next Block 2023 Conference for Web3 CollaborationsRotonda, a subsidiary of Korean crypto exchange Bithumb and the operator of the Web3 Burrito Wallet, and Bithumb META, the exchange’s metaverse subsidiary, said Friday they will jointly host the Next Block 2023 conference. The conference’s main objective is to explore new business collaboration opportunities in building a new ecosystem for accelerating Web3 projects.“We are pleased to offer a space for interaction where virtual asset exchanges, wallets, and NFT marketplaces — which constitute the core infrastructure of the Web3 industry — can work together to set the stage for an innovative future of blockchain business,” a representative from Burrito Wallet said.Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on UnsplashExploring Web3 and industry insightsThe inaugural Next Block conference is scheduled for September 4 at Amoris Hall in Yeoksam GS Tower located in Seoul.Bithumb is the main sponsor of the conference, and more than 15 companies from various sectors including decentralized finance (DeFi), Play-to-Earn (P2E) gaming, venture capital, and securities are set to attend. A total of ten companies will pitch business ideas, deliver keynote speeches, and participate in panel and networking sessions. Topics to be covered for the event include transitioning to Web3 and discovering new opportunities and paradigms through blockchain.Junbo Yang, investment manager at Hong Kong’s HashKey Capital, and Kim Do-hyung, CEO of blockchain-based investment banking platform Finhaven, will deliver the keynote speeches, discussing the various perspectives of investment and security tokens. Companies like Property Heroes, Oasis, Mineral Hub, and more will participate in the panel discussions.Key business opportunitiesIn particular, the companies that give business pitches will have the chance to present their business models directly to venture capitalists and key industry figures. They can subsequently gain access to broader networking and promotional possibilities.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

Japan’s Blockchain Group Requests Crypto Tax Revision for Web3 AdoptionThe Japan Blockchain Association (JBA) has submitted a request to the Japanese government to reform the current cryptocurrency tax system, as it believes the existing framework hampers the growth of the Web 3 industry and discourages public engagement with cryptocurrencies. The association believes the tax revision would help position Japan as a leading country in the Web3 industry and boost the nation’s economy through these changes.Photo by Su San Lee on UnsplashGreater tax exemptionLast month, the Japanese National Tax Agency announced that companies would no longer be taxed on unrealized gains from cryptocurrencies they hold, provided they are the issuers of those tokens. While this represents a positive step, the JBA considers it insufficient in fostering Web3 growth. In light of this, the blockchain group urges the government to extend this exemption to also cover holdings of tokens issued by third parties.Separate taxationAdditionally, the JBA proposes a shift in the tax treatment of personal cryptocurrency transactions. It advocates for a separate taxation approach with a fixed tax rate of 20% for individual transactions, including crypto derivatives. This modification is seen as a way to adapt to the increasing prevalence of crypto asset transactions in the emerging Web3 era.Crypto-to-crypto trading tax abolitionUnder the current system, individuals trading crypto assets for other crypto assets are subject to income tax on the profits earned from each transaction. However, with the increasing variety of crypto assets and the growing prominence of crypto asset transactions in the emerging Web3 era, the JBA is advocating for the abolition of income tax on transactions between cryptocurrencies. The complexities involved in taxing such transactions within the evolving Web3 landscape have prompted the group to propose a reevaluation of the taxation approach, seeking a more favorable environment to foster the growth of the crypto industry.Japan has demonstrated its proactive approach in promoting and embracing the Web3 industry. At the annual Japanese Web3 conference, WebX, held in Tokyo last week, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a video address to mention Web3 as part of “the new form of capitalism,” acknowledging its capacity to stimulate economic growth and tackle societal challenges. Minister Kishida highlighted the Japanese government’s dedication to creating a supportive and conducive environment for the advancement of Web3 projects.