Yat Siu: Hong Kong’s Crypto Adoption Sanctioned by the Mainland

Report: Can Bitcoin Replace Gold As a Safe Asset?In light of the substantial increase in Bitcoin (BTC) prices this year, a report from KB Financial Group in South Korea examined the potential for BTC to replace gold as a safe asset.©Pexels/Michael SteinbergThe study delves into the factors behind the recent BTC price surge and emphasizes the need for caution when considering BTC as an alternative to traditional safe assets.3 drivers behind BTC surgeFrom January 1 to March 31 this year, BTC experienced an impressive return of 71%. This surge can be attributed to three main factors: an anticipated increase in liquidity due to market expectations of unchanged or falling interest rates; central banks supplying liquidity to mitigate risks in the traditional banking system; and concerns over the potential delisting of cryptocurrencies should the US court’s decision on the Ripple-SEC case classify XRP, Ripple’s native token, as securities, prompting investors to shift their focus to BTC.The report suggests that the current BTC boom is more likely a result of short-term arbitrages and social conformity, given the greater information asymmetry in the crypto market, which lacks the disclosure system present in traditional stock markets.Persisting risk factorsLast month, blockchain tracker Whale Alert spotted a transfer of 11,125 BTC from an anonymous address to Binance. The primary reason for moving assets from a private address to an exchange address is to sell them, indicating that investors should keep a watchful eye on Bitcoin trading volumes, particularly for any signs of large sell-offs.Data from the crypto data analysis platform Glassnode revealed that the percentage of the BTC supply that was active over a year ago reached an all-time high of 68% in late March. Historically, such an increase has been associated with falling BTC prices.This year, the BTC supply is set to grow due to the US government’s liquidation of seized BTC. As detailed in a March 31 Cointelegraph article, the US government seized 51,352 BTC in a case related to Ross Ulbricht, the creator of the online black market Silk Road. The government has already sold 9,861 BTC, with the remaining amount expected to be liquidated in four additional portions throughout the year.Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, has been struggling to find banks in the US to store client funds after crypto-friendly banks Silvergate and Signature closed their doors.Need for cautionAlthough various media sources often portray BTC as a safe asset, the report advises caution in accepting these claims. Although some liken BTC to “digital gold,” the two assets share little in common beyond their finite and scarce nature. In fact, gold and BTC diverge significantly in terms of social consensus, intrinsic value, price volatility, and investor protection.Gold serves as a highly liquid asset with applications in both jewelry and industrial goods, in addition to its role as an investment vehicle. In contrast, BTC’s intrinsic value is still debatable. The price volatility of BTC is also a concern, as evidenced by its 71% spike in the first quarter of 2023, compared to gold’s modest 8% increase. Additionally, gold investment products are regulated by law, whereas BTC is not. The report thus recommends treating BTC as a high-risk product and incorporating it into a diverse investment portfolio.It is worth noting that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the crypto market has demonstrated a stronger correlation with the global stock market in response to negative signals. This trend can be partially attributed to the growing presence of institutional investors in the crypto market, who often sell risky assets first to secure liquidity in the face of unexpected shocks.

Key appointment sees Turkey’s central bank enhance crypto expertiseTurkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has taken a step in integrating blockchain and cryptocurrency expertise into the nation’s monetary policy by appointing Professor Fatma Ozkul to the central bank’s rate-setting committee.Photo by Engin Yapici on UnsplashIncorporating digital financial knowledgeThis decision, which became effective on Saturday, marks a significant move towards incorporating digital financial knowledge within the economic framework of Turkey.As part of Turkey’s economic strategy, President Erdogan has been restructuring the economic management team since his victory in the May general election. This reshuffling included the appointment of ex-Goldman Sachs banker Hafize Gaye Erkan as the central bank’s governor in June.That appointment led to a series of policy rate increases, totaling 3,400 basis points, bringing the rate to 42.5%. Further changes in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) occurred in July, reinforcing the trajectory of monetary tightening.Crypto credentialsProfessor Fatma Ozkul, a lecturer at Istanbul’s Marmara University, joins the MPC with a primary focus on accounting, finance and auditing. Notably, she brings expertise in blockchain technology and crypto assets, having conducted courses on these subjects. Her recent work has delved into the implications of blockchain and crypto assets on finance, culminating in the publication of a book on crypto asset accounting in 2022.While Ozkul’s appointment may not immediately alter the current monetary policy direction, it reflects an understanding of the need to incorporate digital financial tools when formulating economic and monetary policy. Her extensive knowledge in digital finance is expected to contribute significantly to the process of setting benchmark interest rates, a critical instrument in controlling inflation within Turkey.President Erdogan’s emphasis on digital banking aligns with Turkey’s proactive steps in this direction. The central bank introduced a digital Turkish lira collaboration platform in 2021 and successfully tested digital lira transactions in late 2022. Additionally, the government is anticipated to submit a draft law regulating crypto assets in the coming year.Crypto adoptionThe political and economic climate in Turkey has shown a growing interest in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. Chainalysis, a blockchain analytics company, reports that Turkey recorded nearly $170 billion worth of cryptocurrency transactions between July 2022 and June 2023, ranking fourth globally in terms of raw transaction volumes.A report by KuCoin earlier this year identified a noteworthy increase in the overall number of crypto investors in Turkey over the course of the past 18 months. That growth in adoption was found to be youth-driven. The importance of the Turkish market within the crypto sector is further evidenced by the recent revelation that the Turkish Lira is the most dominant fiat trading pair on leading global crypto exchange Binance.In response to this surge, the Turkish government has been working on cryptocurrency regulations, focusing on licensing and taxes. This regulatory move aims to remove Turkey’s name from the Financial Action Task Force’s “gray list” and align the country with global financial norms.As Professor Ozkul assumes her role, her expertise and input may well play a pivotal part in shaping Turkey’s evolving position and approach where digital assets, blockchain and cryptocurrencies are concerned.

Audit Finds Excessive Pay Features on China’s e-CNY ProjectChina’s Digital Currency Research Institute, responsible for developing the digital yuan, has come under scrutiny for its excessive pay rises, which exceeded the typical limit for central government departments by eight times, according to a recent audit report. The report, released by the National Audit Office, sheds light on the inner workings of the institute, which oversees China’s widely used central bank digital currency (CBDC).Photo by Eric Prouzet on Unsplash28 percent pay risesIn 2020, employees at the institute received an average salary increase of around 28%, a significant bump compared to the typical government limit. Despite its influential role, the Digital Currency Research Institute maintains a low profile, lacking an official website and public disclosure of its payroll size, budget, and organizational structure.Since the substantial pay increases in 2020, the institute’s growth appears to have accelerated. Job postings indicate that the institute embarked on a hiring spree in the past year, with positions ranging from Beijing-based software engineers for Google’s Android mobile operating system to cloud platform engineers in Suzhou and blockchain experts in Shenzhen.While the Digital Currency Research Institute is among several government agencies flagged for financial irregularities in the audit report, it is essential to note that the institute plays a crucial role in advancing China’s digital yuan project.Ongoing trialsOver the past four years, trials of the digital yuan, known as e-CNY, have rapidly expanded. Currently, there are 26 pilot cities and 5.6 million merchants accepting the CBDC, accessible through official apps and third-party payment systems such as Alipay and WeChat Pay.Despite the progress made in trial deployments, there is no official timeline for the official launch of the digital yuan. The e-CNY has already demonstrated its utility in various contexts. For instance, in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, subway riders can utilize e-CNY as a payment option through local transport apps. Moreover, passengers in eastern Zhejiang province can now use the official e-CNY wallet app to pay for the metro, even without an internet connection.While some cities have started exploring the use of e-CNY for bank loan and utility bill payments, the overall adoption of the digital yuan remains relatively slow. The amount spent using e-CNY is still a fraction of the massive 500 trillion yuan in mobile payments made in China last year. Consumers perceive little difference between e-CNY and traditional payment channels when using popular mobile payment apps.Jiangsu Province is establishing use of the digital yuan within its education system. Meanwhile, in the eastern city of Changshu, local administrators are starting to pay civil servants in e-CNY. To encourage wider acceptance and adoption, it will be crucial to further develop the infrastructure and address the concerns of businesses and consumers.As trials continue, it is expected that the digital yuan will play an increasingly significant role in China’s financial landscape, offering new opportunities while transforming the way transactions are conducted.