Japanese Crypto Firm Pafin to Introduce DeFi Asset Management Platform

As the cryptocurrency market anticipates the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the subsequent boost to bitcoin’s unit price, Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of family office Maelstrom, has issued a warning of potential market turbulence. Hayes, better known as the founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has moved on to Hong Kong-based Maelstrom, a family office that invests in early stage infrastructure ventures that implicate a move towards the decentralization of everything.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashMacroeconomic risk factorsIn a detailed blog post on Friday, Hayes outlines a number of macroeconomic variables that could lead to a bitcoin unit price downturn. Hayes begins by highlighting the depletion of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has served as a significant driver for risky assets over the past year. This program allows qualified banks and investment firms to park cash and earn interest on it. The RRP balance has rapidly declined from a record high of $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 to $700 billion. Hayes projects it to reach its historical average of $200 billion by March. As this liquidity source dwindles, he anticipates negative impacts on bonds and stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies. Fed BTFP expirationThe second factor contributing to the potential market turmoil is the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12. This crucial Fed facility is designed to provide longer-term loans to commercial banks. The mechanism aids banking sector stability. Hayes is concerned that the BTFP might not be extended. Such an eventuality could lead to bankruptcy for banks holding massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings. It could lead to a “liquidity rug pull” event reminiscent of the banking crisis in March of the previous year. The crypto OG predicts that such an eventuality would force a response. “The combination of a lack of liquidity gushing from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover the bond losses on banks’ balance sheets will decimate the financial markets globally,” he wrote. Hayes asserts that the combination of reduced liquidity from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover bond losses could have a global impact on financial markets. In response to this scenario, he predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates during its March 20 meeting and reinstate the BTFP funding line. ‘Healthy’ correctionIn terms of bitcoin’s price, Hayes foresees a “healthy” correction of 20% to 30% from early March prices if the outlined scenario unfolds. However, he suggests the decline could be as much as 40% if BTC rallies to $60,000-$70,000 in the coming weeks. Despite this temporary plunge, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s resilience, emphasizing its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally. In a recent podcast appearance, Hayes expressed the view that the business model of U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether will be challenged once multinational banks receive the go-ahead to offer fiat-backed stablecoins. Overall, Arthur Hayes has urged investors to be cautious and to prepare for potential market volatility in March, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interconnected factors influencing both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market. 

Alchemy Pay scores second money services license in United StatesAlchemy Pay, the Singaporean crypto-fiat payment services provider, is solidifying its presence in the United States, with the acquisition of a money services license in the state of Iowa.Photo by Austin Goode on UnsplashU.S. licensing driveThis expansion, announced on Thursday, aligns with the company’s strategy to navigate the U.S. regulatory landscape and enhance compliance with local requirements. This recent acquisition follows Alchemy Pay’s earlier achievement of a money transmitter license (MTL) in Arkansas in September. The company has not only completed the application process for MTL licenses in additional U.S. states but also expects responses in the coming months.Under the regulatory framework of Iowa, entities or individuals engaged in currency exchange or money transmission must obtain a money services license. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Alchemy Pay Ecosystem Lead Robert McCracken highlighted the Singaporean company’s commitment to a well-structured regulatory environment. McCraken stated:“We believe that a well-structured regulatory environment is essential for the sustainable growth and development of any industry, and that includes the fiat-crypto payment industry.”Despite the challenges posed by the evolving regulatory landscape in the U.S., McCracken affirmed the company’s dedication to seeking licenses and upholding compliance standards as it expands operations. He described this approach as “more challenging but ultimately correct” for ensuring the long-term success of the crypto payment industry.Global market expansionIn addition to its U.S. endeavors, Alchemy Pay is actively pursuing license applications and market expansion opportunities globally, including in the United Kingdom and Hong Kong. The firm operates in 173 countries already, facilitating transactions through various payment methods, including Visa, Mastercard, regional mobile wallets and domestic transfers.In April, the company secured $10 million in funding from Singaporean venture fund and market maker DWF Labs, with a view towards expanding the business in South Korea. The following month, it enabled a rupee-denominated on-ramp, integrating with India’s UPI real-time payments system. In July, it partnered with well-known payments processor Checkout.com, integrating its Visa and Mastercard channels into its on and off-ramps.ICP collaborationThe collaborations and partnerships keep coming with Alchemy Pay and with that, on Wednesday it announced a strategic partnership with the Internet Computer (ICP) smart contract platform.That collaboration will see the listing of ICP, Internet Computer’s native token, on Alchemy Pay’s fiat on-ramp. This is the latest in a line of collaborations the crypto payments gateway has made with layer one and two blockchain network projects, including Polygon, Avalanche, Algorand and Arbitrum.These latest strategic expansions align with the company’s vision to establish a strong global presence while navigating and contributing to the ongoing evolution of crypto regulatory frameworks. Currently, comprehensive regulations for the entire crypto industry in the U.S. are under consideration by regulators, reflecting the dynamic nature of this rapidly evolving sector.

With reports of American exchange platform Coinbase having been in talks with regulators to re-enter the Indian market emerging last month, the firm has made further progress with those efforts, registering with the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU). In a blog post published to the Coinbase website on March 11, the company confirmed that it had successfully registered with the FIU, a national agency which is responsible for gathering, processing, analyzing and circulating data related to suspicious financial transactions.Photo by Big G Media on UnsplashOffering retail services in 2025As a consequence of this registration, the company intends to commence trading activity in India once more, with plans to offer retail services to Indian investors later this year. Commenting on the development, John O'Loghlen, Regional Managing Director for the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region at Coinbase, stated that the company is committed to building its business in markets where potential exists for crypto and on-chain innovation. He added: “India represents one of the most exciting market opportunities in the world today, and we’re proud to deepen our investment here in full compliance with local regulations.” News of this development has been interpreted as a positive for the crypto sector. Taking to X, Suraj Chawla, founder and CEO of GPU.net, a decentralized network of GPUs, suggested that the registration was indicative of a softening in the regulatory approach taken to crypto in India. He believes that the Trump administration in the U.S., which is pro-crypto, is collaborating with India’s government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He added: “This is extremely positive news with countries like UAE, IND, RUS, USA adopting mainstream crypto and working on critical infra like exchanges, ETF and stablecoins.” Taking this development as a sign of a crypto awakening in India, Chawla suggested that we could see major Indian corporations like Reliance, Tata and Adani going into mainstream crypto infrastructure. ‘Informal pressure’Coinbase was forced to disable UPI payments on its platform in India back in 2022 due to what Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong described at the time as “informal pressure” from India’s central bank, the Royal Bank of India (RBI). Armstrong offered the following take on the status of crypto in India at that time:“India is a unique market in the sense that the Supreme Court has ruled that they can't ban crypto, but there are elements in the government there, including at the Reserve Bank of India, who don't seem to be as positive on it.” In 2023 the company disabled new user sign-ups on its platform.  India’s central bank has leaned against crypto over the last few years. In January of last year, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, said that there was no place in India for “crypto mania,” following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. He said at that time that "the way we look at crypto remains unchanged, irrespective of who does what."  While taking what has been at best an ambiguous approach to cryptocurrencies, the RBI has advocated for the adoption of blockchain technology by India’s banks.