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Public Confidence in Crypto Wanes in Hong Kong Amid JPEX ScandalThe development of cryptocurrency in Hong Kong has been dented in terms of public sentiment following the JPEX cryptocurrency exchange scandal, according to a recent survey conducted by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology’s (HKUST) business school.Photo by Alex Plesovskich on UnsplashA two-phase survey methodologyThe survey, the preliminary results of which were disclosed by the business school on Tuesday, aimed to gauge how public attitudes toward virtual assets had been affected by the JPEX scandal, which rocked the crypto community within the Chinese autonomous territory.While the survey is set to conclude on October 20, the preliminary findings have already revealed a noteworthy shift in public perception. Notably, 41% of respondents expressed a preference not to hold virtual assets, marking a 12-percentage-point increase from the earlier study conducted in May.Moreover, only 20% of respondents indicated a desire to hold virtual assets in the future, reflecting a five-percentage-point decrease compared to the previous survey. These findings suggest a growing skepticism among Hong Kong’s populace regarding the cryptocurrency industry.Post-JPEX public sentimentThe initial survey involved 5,700 participants aged 18 and above and was conducted between April 24 and May 23. Phase two of the survey commenced on September 28, approximately 11 days after the allegations against JPEX came to light. The results were compared to a similar survey conducted between April and May to assess the evolving sentiment. Between September 28 and October 5, phase two of the survey had compiled responses from 2,200 individuals.HKUST acknowledged that the second survey occurred in the “aftermath of an alleged financial fraud” involving a cryptocurrency platform but refrained from directly naming JPEX in the report.Professor Allen Huang, Associate Dean of HKUST’s business school, attributed the shift in sentiment to the recent financial scandal, which thrust the cryptocurrency industry into the spotlight. This heightened attention has led to a “more conservative investment appetite” among the public. He emphasized the need for greater educational initiatives to enhance public awareness and understanding of the risks and potential of this emerging field.HKUST’s business school stated that the survey’s primary objective was to assess the attitudes and viewpoints of Hong Kong’s residents regarding virtual asset investments, considering their experiences, intentions, and the regulatory safeguards in place.JPEX falloutThe JPEX scandal, which allegedly involved a $166 million fraud scheme, unfolded over several months before Hong Kong authorities publicly announced their investigation into the exchange. It forced local regulators to reassess the soundness of crypto trading-related regulatory measures applied within the Chinese autonomous territory.That reassessment led to regulators concluding that efforts needed to be intensified to combat unregulated platforms operating within Hong Kong. In response to the JPEX saga, the Hong Kong Police Force and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) established a cryptocurrency-focused working group earlier this month to combat illicit activities on cryptocurrency exchanges.The evolving sentiment in Hong Kong reflects the broader challenges and concerns surrounding the cryptocurrency industry. As regulatory scrutiny increases and major incidents like the JPEX scandal come to light, it’s clear that fostering public trust and understanding is a pressing priority for crypto businesses and the broader crypto community.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

Chinese Court Recognizes Virtual Assets as Legal PropertyAccording to a recent report published by the People’s Courts of the People’s Republic of China, a Chinese court has recognized the legal status of virtual assets, having analyzed their attributes within the framework of Chinese criminal law.The court unequivocally stated that virtual assets are considered legal property under the current legal policy framework and are thus protected by law.The People’s Courts of the People’s Republic of China exercise judicial power independently, free from interference by administrative or public organizations. They have responsibility for adjudicating civil, criminal, and administrative cases.Photo by Christian Lue on UnsplashProperty classificationLocal news source Odaily News reported on the development on Friday, indicating that the report, titled “Identification of the Property Attributes of Virtual Currency and Disposal of Property Involved in the Case,” explicitly recognized the economic attributes of virtual assets, leading to their classification as property.This declaration is particularly significant in light of China’s sweeping ban on decentralized cryptocurrencies. Despite this ban, the report argues that virtual assets held by individuals should enjoy legal protection within the existing policy framework.Furthermore, the report proposed recommendations for addressing crimes involving virtual assets. It emphasized that in cases where money and property are involved, confiscation should be based on the integration of criminal and civil law. The approach taken aims to strike a balance between safeguarding personal property rights while also addressing broader social and public interests.Contentious approach to cryptoWhile China has been making every effort to promote its central bank digital currency (CBDC) and the development of blockchain and metaverse-related technology within the country, its stance on decentralized cryptocurrencies has been contentious at best.Its approach in that respect has been marked by a blanket ban on crypto-related activities such as mining and trading and the prohibition of foreign crypto exchanges from serving customers within mainland China. Nevertheless, Chinese courts have consistently taken a more nuanced view without necessarily contradicting the government’s approach.Differing interpretationsThe divergence between national policy and court rulings first emerged in 2019 when the Hangzhou Internet Court found that Bitcoin is a form of virtual property, and on that basis, it is safeguarded by the law from the point of view of property rights. In May 2022, a Shanghai court affirmed that Bitcoin qualifies as virtual property and, as such, falls under the purview of property rights.Global issueIt’s not just the Chinese courts that are grappling with the issue of clarifying property rights relative to virtual assets. In April of this year, a case in Hong Kong involving defunct crypto exchange Gatecoin resulted in the courts determining that cryptocurrency is property and that on that basis, it’s “capable of being held in trust.”In July a Singaporean court determined that cryptocurrency is capable of being held in trust and on that basis, it should be recognized as property. Earlier this year, the High Court of Justice in London recognized non-fungible tokens (NFTs) as property.The report from the People’s Court reaffirms the legal status of virtual assets as protected property under Chinese law. This development highlights the ongoing divergence between China’s regulatory policy and the judicial interpretation of virtual assets, signaling a potential evolution in the country’s approach to cryptocurrencies.