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An analysis of data recently published as part of Chainalysis’ Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index demonstrates that Hong Kong has recorded a year-on-year crypto transaction value growth rate of 85.6%.  On that basis, the territory accounts for the sixth-largest crypto economy in the world. Furthermore, Hong Kong ranks 30th in terms of global crypto adoption. That’s an improvement of 17 places, as it was ranked 47th in 2023. Regulatory framework aiding crypto adoptionAn excerpt from the 2024 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report by Chainalysis was published on September 18. It found that the steps taken in the Chinese autonomous territory in terms of laying down a regulatory framework for digital assets has led to this uptick in transactional activity, due to the increased adoption of digital assets by institutions.  Over the course of the past eighteen months, Hong Kong has launched crypto trading licensing. Earlier this year, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were given the green light, with the subsequent launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products.  On the topic of ETF’s, Kevin Cui, CEO of digital asset trading platform OSL said that “as market conditions improve, we are seeing indications of a growing institutional interest that could lead to increased capital inflows in the near future.” Meanwhile, the Chinese autonomous territory is working towards the establishment of regulations that cover the issuance and trading of stablecoins.lil artsy on PexelsHong Kong key to Chinese crypto resurgenceIn terms of crypto adoption, mainland China ranked 11th this year, dropping down one place by comparison with last year. The report notes the complicated history China has had with cryptocurrency in recent years, given that a crypto trading ban remains in place. However, last year’s report pointed to the strong usage of centralized crypto exchanges by mainland China residents, which suggests that the ban has either been ineffective or poorly enforced.  The Chainalysis report speculates that “Hong Kong may finally influence China to re-open its doors to crypto.” This is not the first time that Chainalysis has made such an assertion. In last year’s report, it made a similar claim, suggesting that the development of Hong Kong as a crypto industry hub would lead to a softening in the stance of mainland China towards crypto. This year’s report suggests that mainland China residents have turned to over-the-counter (OTC) platforms in order to access crypto as a means towards preserving their wealth. The report quoted Ben Charoenwang, associate professor of finance at the INSEAD Asia Campus as stating: “Nowadays, if you want to move money out of China through traditional unofficial means like using mules, fees can be as high as 25 to 30 percent. The increasing use of OTC crypto in China suggests that people are looking for faster options to move money.” The report finds that five of the top 50 grassroots adopters of crypto, South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan, are located in East Asia. South Korea leads the region in terms of the most crypto value transacted metric. Chainalysis suggests that South Korea’s strong interest in altcoins signals that it will remain a leader in the region from a cryptocurrency innovation perspective.

Japanese Banking Giant Joins Tech Firms to Build Cross-Chain Stablecoin InfrastructureA major Japanese banking group has initiated a collaboration with technology companies to develop cross-chain infrastructure, according to a press release. The purpose of establishing a cross-chain system is to facilitate the trading of stablecoins across various public blockchains.Photo by Takashi Miyazaki on UnsplashThree companies team upIn this collaborative partnership, the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), the key developer of the stablecoin issuance management platform Progmat Coin, will join forces with Datachain, a cross-chain technology firm, and TOKI FZCO, which has global plans for providing cross-chain bridges. Together, they will work towards constructing infrastructure that enables cross-chain transactions involving stablecoins on different blockchain networks.Japan’s new regulatory boostWith the implementation of the revised Payment Services Act in Japan this year, companies completing the license registration process will gain the ability to issue and distribute various stablecoins on Progmat Coin. Furthermore, it is expected that stablecoins will be issued across different blockchains, including Ethereum.TOKI is currently in the process of developing a cross-chain bridge with the aim of introducing it this year. The cross-chain bridge developed by TOKI leverages blockchain intercommunication technologies such as the Inter-Blockchain Communication Protocol (IBC) or Datachain’s Light Client Proxy (LCP). These technologies ensure a high level of security and scalability for cross-chain transactions. Additionally, TOKI’s bridge boasts a highly efficient liquidity mechanism.The three companies strive to cooperate on this infrastructure project with an aim to launch it in the second quarter of next year.Government supportA couple of days ago, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government took a proactive step to support security token businesses based in Tokyo by offering subsidies. Given that both MUFG and Datachain are Tokyo-based companies, it appears that the Japanese government’s initiatives are beginning to yield positive results.

NVT Ratio Signals Overvalued BTCThe network value to transaction (NVT) ratio of Bitcoin, which has been staying at a high level since the beginning of the year, has signaled its overvaluation, according to Yonhap Infomax.However, some argue that this will not necessarily lead to a crypto winter, considering that the nature of Bitcoin as an asset has changed and there is no sign of overheating in other indicators.©Pexels/PixabayPrice and NVT ratio correlationYonhap Infomax found out that the correlation between the NVT ratio and the price of Bitcoin over the past six years is -0.35. A value of 1 represents a completely positive correlation, while a value of -1 represents a completely negative correlation.Extending this period to 2010 makes the correlation close to 0, but during the early years, NVT ratios showed high volatility, shooting up to four digits. Such a high volatility doesn’t suggest much correlation. Until 2021, there was a high correlation of up to -0.44.The NVT ratio is calculated by dividing the market cap by the transacted volume. Conceptually, it is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio for the stock market.In 2017, when the crypto market was bullish, the average Bitcoin NVT ratio was 7.3. This number became 8.7 in 2021 when the market experienced a similar pattern. In retrospect, single-digit NVT ratios usually hint at bullish markets.This year so far, Bitcoin has been relatively overvalued, given that the average NVT ratio is 23.6.BTC price recoveryWhen the crypto market sentiment lost its confidence due to the FTX bankruptcy last year, the price of Bitcoin went down to $15,000. It later recovered to the near $30,000 level. The Bitcoin price once had reached an all-time high in 2021, surpassing $65,000.The years that manifested similar patterns as this year were 2018 and 2019. In those years, the Bitcoin NVT ratio plateaued around 20.Uncertain outlookThe NVT ratio itself could point to a possible crypto winter, but researchers say it’s hard to say.Jang Kyung-pil, a research analyst at crypto data platform Xangle, said that people now consider Bitcoin as a store of value rather than a means of transactions, pointing out that BTC’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has hit the bottom at 0.84 and now reached 1.4. According to Jang, MVRV values under 1 indicate undervaluation and those above 3 indicate overvaluation.Jung Seok-moon, head of the research center at crypto exchange Korbit, said that the current NVT ratio signals BTC overvaluation. He added that the Fed is likely to turn dovish in its monetary policy, which would prompt a strong BTC uptrend.