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In a recent report, Singaporean digital asset financial services firm Matrixport has made a bold forecast regarding the future of bitcoin prices and the potential rejection of spot bitcoin ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States.Photo by André François McKenzie on UnsplashMinority viewWhile most ETF and crypto industry analysts in recent weeks have been suggesting a greater than 90% chance of the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin ETF coming from the SEC, Matrixport has had its say, speculating that the regulator will once again reject all such applications. In a note published to its website on Wednesday, the firm stated:”The current five-person voting Commissioners leadership critical for the ETF approval of the SEC is dominated by Democrats. SEC Chair Gensler is not embracing crypto in the U.S., and it might even be a very long shot to expect that he would vote to approve bitcoin spot ETFs.” The report emphasizes the dominant influence of Democratic leadership within the SEC, particularly Chairman Gary Gensler's cautious approach to crypto regulation. The Democrat-led administration in the United States has been decidedly anti-crypto in its policies throughout the ongoing term of U.S. President Joe Biden. Matrixport also suggests a potential delay in ETF approvals until Q2 2024, dampening hopes of an imminent market boost. Potential bitcoin price slumpShould the company be right in that speculation, it extrapolates that this turn of events will potentially lead to a substantial decline in bitcoin's value, with the bitcoin unit price possibly dropping to as low as $36,000. This revelation has sent shock waves through the market, prompting Matrixport to advise investors to take protective measures. The recommended strategies include purchasing put options or engaging in direct shorting of bitcoin to mitigate potential losses. With an ominous Jan. 5, 2024 deadline looming, traders could decide to hedge their long exposure by purchasing $40,000 strike put options expiring at the end of January or opting for outright short positions through options. Matrixport's report challenges the previously optimistic expectations surrounding bitcoin's future, highlighting the SEC's likely rejection of spot ETFs as a significant factor. Despite the platform's earlier bullish stance, it now expresses skepticism about the SEC's willingness to embrace cryptocurrencies. The firm contends that the current influx of funds into crypto, driven by expectations of ETF approval, could result in significant liquidations if the SEC denies the proposals. The report estimates that about $10 billion of the $14 billion additional investments might be linked to optimistic ETF prospects. Notably, Matrixport foresees a rapid 20% decline in bitcoin's price, reverting to a range of around $36,000 to $38,000 should the SEC reject the ETFs. Positive long-term outlookDespite the potential setback with the SEC, Matrixport maintains a positive long-term outlook for bitcoin, expecting the BTC price to end 2024 above the $42,000 mark, where it started the year. The analysis also considers historical trends in U.S. election years and bitcoin mining cycles for the potential rally. At the time of writing, the bitcoin unit price is down 4.75% over the course of the past 24 hours, now standing at $42,838. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming SEC decision and may well be heeding Matrixport's advice to navigate potential market volatility.  

Suspects emerge in Taiwan in ongoing JPEX scandal falloutIn the ongoing saga surrounding the collapse of Dubai-headquartered cryptocurrency exchange JPEX, Taiwanese prosecutors have identified new suspects, marking a significant development in the case.The Taipei District Prosecutors Office (TDPO) has requested the custody of Chang Tung-ying, chief partner at JPEX’s Taiwan office, over allegations of fraud. That’s according to a report by local TV channel TVBS News on Thursday.Photo by Ricky Zeng on UnsplashMoney laundering and Banking Act violationsThis latest development brings a new twist to the scandal, which has largely been playing out in the Chinese territory of Hong Kong. The TDPO reportedly conducted searches at nine locations linked to the JPEX investigation. Chang, along with three other individuals, including JPEX lecturer Shih Yu-sheng (also known as Shi Yu), was summoned by the authorities. Chang and Shih are being investigated for violations of the Banking Act and the Money Laundering Control Act.During the investigation, JPEX salespersons Liu Chien-fu and Niu Keng-sheng were released, with Liu being granted bail of 50,000 New Taiwan dollars ($1,550). Niu, the registered person in charge of JPEX Taiwan, was released after questioning.Celebrity promoter focusThe report also revealed that Nine Chen, a Taiwanese celebrity and singer who previously served as a brand ambassador for JPEX, was summoned by prosecutors. He has cooperated with law enforcement in the role of a witness to the alleged fraud who has testified to illicit activity carried out by the platform. However, it is now understood that recent events have developed such that Chen is now being treated as a defendant.This action resonates with actions taken by the authorities in Hong Kong some weeks ago in the earlier stages of investigation into this affair. In September, one of the first actions taken by Hong Kong law enforcement was the arrest and detention of social media influencer and former lawyer Joseph Lam, known to followers as “Jolamchok” on the Instagram platform.Alleged liquidity crisisJPEX, once a successful crypto exchange, abruptly halted some services in mid-September, citing a liquidity crisis triggered by alleged “unfair treatment” from institutions in Hong Kong. The sudden implosion led to accusations of misleading investors regarding the application for a crypto trading license and other issues.The scandal surrounding JPEX has escalated into a major industry concern, prompting investigations by Hong Kong authorities. Over 2,000 complaints from JPEX users, reporting losses of nearly $180 million, have triggered significant regulatory attention.As investigations progressed in Hong Kong, the authorities took the decision to block access to the platform, with the platform responding by advising customers to circumvent this restriction through the use of a virtual private network (VPN).As of September 25, law enforcement has arrested at least 11 alleged suspects in the JPEX case, while the alleged masterminds remain at large. At that time, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pledged to renew its efforts to combat unregulated crypto platforms in Hong Kong.A survey conducted by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) business school has indicated that the affair has had a negative impact on public sentiment towards crypto more recently.

China Makes History by Settling Cross-Border Oil Deal with Digital YuanThe digital yuan, China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC), also known as e-CNY, was used for the first time to settle a significant oil transaction.Chinese state-owned media outlet China Daily reported on Saturday that the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange (SHPGX) revealed on October 20 that PetroChina International, a subsidiary of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), successfully acquired 1 million barrels of crude.Photo by engin akyurt on UnsplashAdvancing e-CNY use internationallyThis transaction is a response to the call by the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government to incorporate the digital yuan into international trade, marking a noteworthy stride towards the broader adoption of the digital currency.The exact seller and price details for the deal were not disclosed. This historic crude oil transaction signals not only the increasing use of the digital yuan in global trade but also a noteworthy step in the movement towards de-dollarization. Reports from China Daily suggest that the use of the yuan in cross-border settlements experienced a remarkable 35% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2023, reaching a total of $1.39 trillion.This milestone isn’t the first time the yuan has been utilized in the energy sector. In March, the yuan was first used in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchase on the SHPGX, as French TotalEnergies reached an agreement to sell LNG to the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). Recently, another LNG deal was executed between CNOOC and French Engie, although these transactions did not involve the digital yuan.In parallel developments, First Abu Dhabi Bank announced on October 19 that it had established an agreement on digital currency with the Bank of China during the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. China and the United Arab Emirates, including Abu Dhabi, are participants in the mBridge platform designed to facilitate cross-border transactions using CBDCs. The mBridge platform is expected to launch as a minimum viable product in the coming year.Furthering mass adoptionThe Chinese authorities are taking several distinct approaches in furthering mass adoption of the e-CNY. The Chinese subsidiaries of both Singapore’s DBS Bank and France’s BNP Paribas have recently partnered with the People’s Bank of China to enable their international clients operating in China to use the digital yuan.A long list of initiatives have been taken within mainland China by regional governing authorities to further the use of the CBDC. To further enable mass adoption at home, a new offline SIM card-based digital yuan wallet was developed and launched earlier this year.The successful use of the digital yuan in settling this oil deal represents a significant step forward in the internationalization of China’s currency and the growing influence of CBDCs on the global economic stage. As the world watches these developments unfold, the digital yuan continues to make strides towards becoming a crucial means of exchange in international trade and finance.