Growing Concerns about Single Crypto Exchange Listings in Korea

Singaporean Researchers Devise More Effective DAO VotingResearchers at the Singapore University of Social Sciences have come up with a more efficient governance model for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs).Photo by Shubham Dhage on UnsplashDAO governance reviewThe scientists presented their work via a paper titled “Voting Schemes in DAO Governance,” which was published earlier this week. The paper is due to appear in the Annual Review of Fintech in due course.The research paper initially sets out with a review of the different forms of voting currently used to affect DAO governance in the various early stage projects that are already up and running. Having taken a deep dive into existing approaches, the research team of Qinxu Ding, Weibiao Xu, Zhiguo Wang and David Kuo Chuen Lee decided that they could go one better themselves.Their review encompassed eight current approaches including the following: token-based quorum voting, knowledge-extractable voting, conviction voting and reputation-based voting. Each voting scheme was then evaluated based on the following factors:Efficiency: An assessment of the speed at which proposals are selected and approved.Fairness: Each voter should have equal rights to vote.Scalability: The degree to which storage, computation and communication needs can be adjusted relative to the number of voters.Robustness: An assessment of the relative resistance of the voting scheme to attacks and collusion.Incentive Schemes: The extent to which DAO members are motivated to vote.Following on from that analysis, the scientists put forward a hypothetical voting mechanism with design considerations relative to fully decentralized and permissionless DAO governance. When it came to ratings, the holographic consensus approach scored highest, with a “high” rating in the categories of efficiency, fairness and robustness, dropping down to medium when it came to scalability. None of the other approaches came close.In trying to go one better, the team took the holographic consensus approach and set out to create their own hypothetical voting mechanism based on this model. As evidenced from the paper, they tried to effect improvements to this approach:“We know that the downside of the conviction voting mechanism is that it takes time to approve an urgent proposal. To address this concern, we introduce a blind betting mechanism: each member could choose whether to bet on any proposals with a certain number of their tokens.”The researcher’s hypothetical model allows stakeholders to gamble their tokens on the likelihood of a proposal passing or failing. The logic with this approach, they claim, is that it would speed up the governance process, while making it more robust at the same time.In concluding remarks, the researchers acknowledged that all approaches were not without their pros and cons. They point out that the further development of DAOs shouldn’t be confined to a static organizational future. While they believe that their own hypothetical scheme is in theory superior, they acknowledge that it too has flaws. With that, the realities of implementing it in the real world may be a challenge.

As the cryptocurrency market anticipates the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the subsequent boost to bitcoin’s unit price, Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of family office Maelstrom, has issued a warning of potential market turbulence. Hayes, better known as the founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has moved on to Hong Kong-based Maelstrom, a family office that invests in early stage infrastructure ventures that implicate a move towards the decentralization of everything.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashMacroeconomic risk factorsIn a detailed blog post on Friday, Hayes outlines a number of macroeconomic variables that could lead to a bitcoin unit price downturn. Hayes begins by highlighting the depletion of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has served as a significant driver for risky assets over the past year. This program allows qualified banks and investment firms to park cash and earn interest on it. The RRP balance has rapidly declined from a record high of $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 to $700 billion. Hayes projects it to reach its historical average of $200 billion by March. As this liquidity source dwindles, he anticipates negative impacts on bonds and stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies. Fed BTFP expirationThe second factor contributing to the potential market turmoil is the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12. This crucial Fed facility is designed to provide longer-term loans to commercial banks. The mechanism aids banking sector stability. Hayes is concerned that the BTFP might not be extended. Such an eventuality could lead to bankruptcy for banks holding massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings. It could lead to a “liquidity rug pull” event reminiscent of the banking crisis in March of the previous year. The crypto OG predicts that such an eventuality would force a response. “The combination of a lack of liquidity gushing from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover the bond losses on banks’ balance sheets will decimate the financial markets globally,” he wrote. Hayes asserts that the combination of reduced liquidity from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover bond losses could have a global impact on financial markets. In response to this scenario, he predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates during its March 20 meeting and reinstate the BTFP funding line. ‘Healthy’ correctionIn terms of bitcoin’s price, Hayes foresees a “healthy” correction of 20% to 30% from early March prices if the outlined scenario unfolds. However, he suggests the decline could be as much as 40% if BTC rallies to $60,000-$70,000 in the coming weeks. Despite this temporary plunge, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s resilience, emphasizing its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally. In a recent podcast appearance, Hayes expressed the view that the business model of U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether will be challenged once multinational banks receive the go-ahead to offer fiat-backed stablecoins. Overall, Arthur Hayes has urged investors to be cautious and to prepare for potential market volatility in March, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interconnected factors influencing both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market. 

Polymarket activity under scrutiny in Taiwan due to election contractsTaiwanese law enforcement is currently delving into the activities of online influencers and community members promoting Polymarket contracts related to the upcoming presidential election which is due to be held on Jan. 13.Polymarket is a New York-based Ethereum-centric prediction market. The platform runs on the Ethereum layer-2 scaling solution network Polygon. The project invites platform users to bet on the outcomes of a broad spectrum of events, ranging from politics to entertainment.Users deposit USDC stablecoin, choose an event to bet on and purchase “outcome shares” through USDC. The user has the ability to trade those shares anytime before the resolution of the contract.Photo by Ethan Lin on UnsplashPossible election law violationsThe Taiwanese investigation came to light in a report by Taiwan-based crypto publication BlockTempo, which was published last week. The investigation comes as concerns arose about potential violations of Taiwan’s Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act, which explicitly prohibits gambling on election outcomes.Multiple influencers and crypto community members have reportedly been subpoenaed for their involvement in Polymarket contracts, allowing users to place bets on the January election. At present, the betting pool for the election holds over $300,000, with a market prediction favoring the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, with a 78% chance of winning.However, the legality of such betting activities is in question under Article 88–1 of Taiwan’s election law. It stipulates that anyone gambling on the outcome of an election or recall in a public place or a place open to the public may face imprisonment, short-term detention or a fine of up to NT$100,000 ($3,196.85).Sherman Lin, an attorney at Taipei-based Lin & Partners, emphasized the seriousness with which law enforcement views gambling activities related to presidential elections in Taiwan. He explained that broad legal interpretations under the Presidential Election and Recall Act have led to investigations and convictions of gambling website operators targeting Taiwanese gamblers. Lin stated:“Law enforcement agencies in Taiwan are vigilant in investigating any gambling activities related to presidential elections.”“Broad legal interpretations have been applied to gambling crimes under the Presidential Election and Recall Act, leading to investigations and convictions of gambling website operators in Taiwan targeting Taiwanese gamblers,” he added.Prohibited in United StatesComparing the situation to the United States, where gambling on election outcomes is illegal in most states, Lin noted that enforcing such regulations often falls under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket’s Terms of Use explicitly prohibit usage by U.S. persons.Despite potential legal consequences for gambling activities in Taiwan, including participation, promotion and platform hosting for betting pools like Polymarket, Lin pointed out that enforcing actions against overseas entities poses jurisdictional challenges. Taiwan’s legal reach is primarily limited to domestic actors, creating complexities in addressing decentralized platforms like Polymarket.Lin suggested that law enforcement may focus on online influencers who promoted the Polymarket contract, as seen in previous cases involving the collapse of the unlicensed crypto exchange JPEX in Hong Kong.Moreover, while there are legal precedents for pursuing centralized entities organizing election gambling, Lin highlighted that no established legal precedent in Taiwan currently exists for decentralized platforms organizing election betting.