Wintermute Asia executes inaugural options block trade via CME

The Hong Kong Virtual Asset Consortium (HKVAC), a digital asset group in China's special administrative region, has announced modifications to its core cryptocurrency index, reshuffling the top contenders to the detriment of XRP, the payment solution token developed by Ripple Labs.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashSolana takes top 5 slotEffective as of this Friday, HKVAC will replace XRP with Solana (SOL) in its Top 5 Large Cryptocurrency Index, signaling a shift in the composition of its benchmark index. HKVAC is a collaborative effort between Hong Kong-based industry participants such as crypto exchanges and licensed ratings agencies. Its aim is to optimize the risk management capabilities of the crypto sector and in that way, assisting market participants including local regulatory bodies. Crypto exchange platform HTX, previously known as Huobi, became the first member of HKVAC in 2023. It was joined by iPollo, KuCoin, LK Venture, Nano Labs, Purise, Wealthking Investment, G-Rocket Global Accelerator, Hong Kong Data Infinity Technology and others in making up the organization’s membership. The HKVAC's Top 5 index reflects the global cryptocurrency ranking based on market capitalization, maintaining a pulse on the ever-evolving crypto landscape. However, beyond market cap, the digital asset group considers additional factors such as market valuation, investability and liquidity in its index rebalancing decisions. Solana’s growth and progressionSolana, currently ranked as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, has been making substantial strides in the market. Despite the 2022 collapse of the FTX crypto exchange, which significantly impacted SOL's price, the cryptocurrency has made an impressive recovery. Over the past year Solana has surged by 315%. Presently, SOL boasts a market cap of $41 billion, securing its position in the top echelons of the cryptocurrency market. In contrast, XRP, the ousted cryptocurrency, has experienced a more modest price growth during the same period. As of the latest data, XRP holds the sixth position in the cryptocurrency ranking, with a valuation of $31 billion. The decision to remove XRP from the Top 5 index was met with a 3.9% decline in its value, settling at $0.57. XRP had moved within the Top 5 index in October of last year. It was added to the index alongside SHIB in 2023. At the time of its formation, HKVAC emphasized that market capitalization was one of the primary criteria incorporated within the evaluation, which extends to 30 cryptocurrencies. A re-evaluation is carried out each quarter on the basis of that market cap criterion. Crypto rating reshuffleThe HKVAC's reshuffling extends beyond the Top 5 index, impacting other leading cryptocurrencies. Notable changes include the removal of Filecoin (FIL), Binance USD (BUSD), Maker (MKR), Hedera (HBAR) and TrueUSD (TUSD) from the Global Large Cryptocurrency Index. These have been replaced by Near Protocol (NEAR), Internet Computer (ICP), Immutable (IMX), Optimism (OP) and Injective (INJ). Additionally, Avalanche (AVAX) is set to replace Tron (TRX) on the HKVAC Top 10 Global Large Cryptocurrency Index, effective this Friday. These adjustments come amid Hong Kong's ongoing efforts to bolster the cryptocurrency industry within the region. In December, the financial regulator in Hong Kong signaled its readiness to accept spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This move aligns with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission's review of 11 spot bitcoin ETF applications, ultimately approved on Jan. 10.   

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

Switzerland and Singapore-based crypto bank Sygnum has successfully closed a funding round, securing over $40 million in capital, with plans to expand its service offering in Asia. On the brink of unicorn statusThe funding round was achieved based upon a post-money valuation of $900 million, with Sygnum edging closer to unicorn status. Led by global asset management group Azimut Holdings, the funding surpassed the initial target of $35 million, reinforcing Sygnum's position in the rapidly evolving digital assets space. In a press release, Mathias Imbach, Sygnum's co-founder and CEO, expressed excitement about the successful funding round, highlighting the company's commitment to building trust through regulation and good governance. Imbach stated:”Our core thesis has always been that Future has Heritage, and our strategy to build trust via regulation and good governance has guided us throughout all market cycles. ” Gerald Goh, Sygnum's co-founder and CEO of its Singapore operations, emphasized the importance of staying ahead as clients' needs and activities grow more sophisticated. The fresh funds will enable Sygnum to continuously upgrade and enhance its product and service offerings in response to evolving market demands.Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on UnsplashAsian focusThe funds raised in this round will be instrumental in expanding Sygnum's geographical reach into new markets in 2024, within the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region as well as within the European Union. Sygnum has already made in-roads in Asia. Having started out in Switzerland, in 2019 the company set up a base in Singapore, establishing Sygnum Singapore and obtained a capital markets license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Last June, the firm achieved in-principle approval for a Major Payment Institution (MPI) license from MAS. It fulfilled the regulator’s requirements to bring about full approval in October. Goh told Bloomberg that the company envisages achieving growth in Asia and Europe through acquisition.  Developing fully regulated productsThis latest capital injection has also been earmarked to accelerate the development of fully regulated products, including the bank-to-bank platform that currently powers crypto offerings for more than 15 banks and financial institutions worldwide. Sygnum's assets under management have surged to $4 billion, with a client base exceeding 1,700 from over 60 countries. At the end of 2023, the firm reported an annualized revenue run rate (ARRR) exceeding $100 million, marking a significant milestone for the company's financial health and positive cash flow. Sygnum's expansion efforts include collaborations with key players in the industry. In November, the bank furthered its partnership with the Singapore arm of 174-year-old private bank Bordier & Cie, strengthening their initial collaboration that started in Geneva in 2021. Giorgio Medda, CEO of Azimut Holding, highlighted the strategic partnership between Azimut and Sygnum since 2021, emphasizing their joint development of the first tokenization of a private credit portfolio in Europe. Despite the recent challenges in the crypto industry, Sygnum remains optimistic about the future. The broader industry is witnessing a resurgence, with investors and market participants seeking partnerships with trusted and well-managed financial institutions. This sentiment aligns with Sygnum's vision to provide fully regulated solutions and support investors as they increase exposure to the asset class.