Hong Kong's VSFG eyes spot ether ETF application in Q2

The European Council has banned all transactions within the European Union (EU) involving the Russian Ruble-backed stablecoin A7A5, according to a press release published Oct. 23. The prohibition targets the stablecoin itself, its developer, its Kyrgyzstan-based issuer, and the operator of a platform that facilitates major A7A5 trades. The package also takes aim at Russian crypto exchanges.Photo by Christian Lue on UnsplashAdditional banking restrictionsThis measure is part of a broader set of economic sanctions against sectors the EU stated assist the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including energy, finance, and defense industries. As part of this financial clampdown, the EU will also impose a ban on five additional Russian lenders starting Nov. 12. One of those lenders, Alfa-Bank, recently began offering Bitcoin buying and selling services, according to an X post by journalist Pete Rizzo. The European body said the new crypto measures address Russia’s increasing use of digital assets to circumvent existing sanctions. Russian banks were cut off from the SWIFT international payment system in early 2022, following the onset of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Reports of Russia using cryptocurrency to finance malign activities have surfaced previously. Earlier this month, Sławomir Cenckiewicz, the head of the Polish National Security Bureau (BBN), told the Financial Times that Russia has employed crypto to finance attacks on EU countries. Cenckiewicz said that a network of agents recruited by Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency and uncovered in Poland in 2023 had been substantially funded with cryptocurrency. Reflecting this concern, lawmakers in Poland’s lower house approved a bill in September to strengthen national crypto oversight, a move also expected to help curb Russian funding channels. Cenckiewicz noted that Polish intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the legislation to prevent loopholes that allow foreign actors to support agents using digital assets. Russia’s evolving crypto policyThe EU’s action comes as Russia itself is attempting to refine its own cryptocurrency rules. According to the Moscow Times, Russia's central bank wants to limit cryptocurrency use strictly to cross-border payments within an experimental legal regime (ELR). The institution continues to reject recognition of cryptocurrency as a legal means of payment and has advocated banning its use for domestic payments and retail investment, while permitting trading only for high-net-worth individuals through licensed platforms. Russia’s finance ministry has expressed a more flexible view, pointing to the scale of crypto adoption among the public. Earlier this year, the central bank estimated that domestic crypto transactions exceeded 1 trillion rubles (about $12.4 billion) per month, and that as of March, wallets linked to Russian users held roughly 827 billion rubles (about $10.2 billion). The finance ministry and the central bank have agreed to tighten supervision of the crypto market, with officials expecting to finalize the new framework before the end of the year. 

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

South Korea’s crypto market, long known for frenzied retail trading and the Kimchi premium, is losing some of its speculative heat as local demand weakens and regulators tighten their grip on the sector.Photo by Ciaran O'Brien on UnsplashThe shift is showing up in the Kimchi premium, the price gap that once saw crypto assets trade higher on Korean exchanges than overseas. That premium has now turned negative, meaning digital assets are cheaper on Korean platforms than on global exchanges. Retail sentiment has soured alongside it: a weekly CoinNess and Kratos survey found that 58.8% of respondents expect Bitcoin to fall or crash in the coming week, up from 28.6% a week earlier. Only 17.7% expect a price surge, down from 36%, while 23.5% expect sideways trading. Weak market, thin liquidityInvestors blamed the persistent negative premium on several factors. The largest specific cause, cited by 25.4% of respondents, was broader market weakness and liquidity outflows. Another 22.7% said a strong stock market has reduced the appeal of crypto, while 16.5% pointed to limitations of local crypto exchanges. The remaining 35.4% said all of these factors are working together. South Korean exchanges are also becoming late-stage listing venues rather than early platforms. According to IOSG Ventures, Coinbase, Binance Futures, and Bybit often lead early price discovery, while Upbit and Bithumb tend to wait for broader market validation before adding new assets. IOSG found that 85% of Bithumb’s listings came after comparable listings on major global platforms, while Upbit listed assets an average of 28 days after their first overseas debut. The lag reflects lengthy regulatory reviews and a preference for more established projects. Regulation is shifting as well. According to SBS News, the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) under the Financial Services Commission (FSC) has decided against a proposed blanket reporting rule for crypto transfers above 10 million won, or about $6,500, to foreign virtual asset service providers (VASPs) or personal wallets. Instead, local VASPs must operate their own internal, risk-based anti-money laundering (AML) controls. Police probe Polymarket usersLaw enforcement is also targeting decentralized prediction markets. Local law firm Jonjung reported on a blog post that the Gangwon Provincial Police Agency has launched an investigation into South Korean Polymarket users over possible violations of the country’s gambling laws. Ahn Chang-bo, managing partner at the law office, said police are tracking crypto transaction records to identify and summon users. However, he noted that whether participation in Polymarket violates South Korea’s gambling laws remains unsettled, as prosecutors have not taken a definitive position and courts have yet to rule on the issue. South Korea remains a major crypto market, but the tone has changed. Local demand has weakened, exchanges are slower to list new tokens, and authorities are taking a closer look at both compliance and emerging platforms such as Polymarket.