Potential positive impact of monetary stimulus in China

Hong Kong’s SFC Issues Warning Against Unlicensed Crypto PlatformsIn a move to safeguard its financial ecosystem, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued a stern warning recently, cautioning against the activities of unlicensed cryptocurrency exchanges involved in what it termed “improper practices.”In a statement published to its website on Monday, the regulatory authority underscored the gravity of engaging in unlicensed operations within the crypto trading sphere, categorizing such activities as a “criminal offense” under Hong Kong jurisdiction.Photo by Chi Hung Wong on UnsplashDeceptive tacticsFurthermore, the SFC exposed the deceptive tactics employed by certain unlicensed crypto trading platforms, which misleadingly assert that they have submitted license applications to the commission. The reality, however, is quite the opposite, as these platforms remain unregulated.The warning coincides with the SFC's ongoing establishment of a novel regulatory framework for overseeing retail crypto trading. Notably, the SFC made it clear that applicants who fail to adhere to pertinent regulations might find themselves ineligible for licensing under the newly instituted regime.This initiative from the SFC aligns with the broader efforts undertaken by Hong Kong authorities to instill effective oversight and regulation within the cryptocurrency market. The primary objective remains the protection of investors’ interests and the preservation of the integrity of the overall financial system.Platforms must demonstrate ability to complyThe SFC emphasized, “VATPs (Virtual Asset Trading Platforms) which consider themselves eligible for deeming under the transitional arrangements are reminded that the SFC may decide that deeming is inapplicable if it does not see a reasonable prospect for the VATPs to successfully show that they are capable of complying with the applicable legal and regulatory requirements.”This development follows closely on the heels of Hong Kong’s recent announcement outlining plans to grant licensed cryptocurrency platforms the permission to cater to retail investors within the new regulatory framework.These comprehensive guidelines encompass critical facets such as cybersecurity protocols, asset custody safety standards, and the segregation of client assets. This regulatory evolution commenced on June 1, synchronizing with the launch of the novel licensing regime for virtual asset platforms.Drawing attention to the growing influence of the sector, it’s worth noting that in April, cryptocurrency exchange OKX registered an astonishing surge of over 10,000 new user sign-ups within a mere month of launching its operations in Hong Kong.Web3 implementationIn a recent tweet, Chris Lee, former CEO of both the Huobi and OKX crypto exchanges, said that “if Hong Kong wants to implement Web3 well, it still needs to complete the basic requirements, such as Web3 foundation laws and bills.” Lee added that “Hong Kong’s competitors will always be itself, not New York or Singapore.”The Hong Kong SFC’s warning to unlicensed crypto platforms is another step in creating the right foundation for Web3 in the city. It underscores the concerted effort to maintain a regulated and secure environment for cryptocurrency transactions within the Chinese autonomous territory.As the regulatory landscape continues to evolve, industry participants are gradually being compelled to adhere to the stipulated legal and compliance requirements in an effort to foster a robust crypto ecosystem.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

Korean Financial Watchdog to Penalize Bankers Involved in Illegal Foreign RemittancesThe Korean Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) recently completed an investigation into illegal foreign remittances of approximately 16 trillion KRW (~$12,137,718,400) that involved numerous bankers.©Unsplash/Paul FiedlerExploiting the kimchi premiumThe investigation, launched by the Korean financial watchdog last June, found that these lawbreakers sent funds to China, Hong Kong, and other overseas destinations through Korean crypto exchanges, trading firms, and bank branches with an aim of making money through arbitrage by taking the advantage of the kimchi premium, a term used to describe that the higher prices of crypto assets in Korean exchanges compared to their foreign counterparts.Bankers neglecting the KYC ruleSome of these bankers participated in the crime by raising the remittance cap and applying favorable exchange rates to trading companies that had no previous transaction records with banks. By law, bankers in Korea are obligated to follow the “know your customer” rule. It was found that 12 domestic banks and one futures firm were involved in this incident.The FSS has decided to impose strict penalties on these financial institutions, considering they were exploited for money laundering purposes. These entities are likely to have some of their services suspended, with the employees involved being fired.Accountability of top bankersOne key point to watch out for is whether the FSS would be able to hold executives accountable. Some say penalizing top bankers is not easy, given that it has to be proven that the employees’ criminal activities were due to a lack of executives’ internal control.The financial regulator recently announced plans to revise the law governing banks’ governance, but it is expected that such a bill would take some time to pass through the National Assembly.Through a revision of the law, the financial authority aims to hold top executives at financial institutions more responsible for serious financial accidents. It looks forward to bestowing top bankers with the obligation of comprehensive internal control management and making them accountable as an overall manager only in case of critical financial accidents. The term “top executives” in the bill will encompass not only bank presidents but also chairpersons of financial holding companies. More specific revision plans are expected to be revealed by the end of this month.