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Amid the ongoing cryptocurrency market slowdown, a South Korean analyst said a rebound will hinge on effective policy measures and sustainable business models.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashAnalyst urges policy and profitabilityAccording to an analysis by iM Securities researcher Yang Hyun-kyung, cited by local outlet Etoday, the current downturn stems from several factors: a liquidity crunch in short-term funding markets, a strengthening U.S. dollar, rising risk aversion, and a prevailing narrative of a cyclical correction. Yang noted that a strong dollar typically drains market momentum, as tighter global liquidity prompts investors to deleverage and reduce exposure to risk assets. He added that growing uncertainty over potential U.S. rate cuts in December has further fueled risk aversion among institutional investors, putting selling pressure on both major cryptocurrencies and altcoins. While the expected resolution of the U.S. government shutdown may create a more favorable environment for a modest technical rebound, Yang argued that the crypto sector still needs to develop profitable business models and gain growth momentum through supportive policy measures. Brokerage frames crypto as diversifierDespite the current headwinds, another Korean brokerage firm released a quarterly report framing digital tokens as an emerging alternative asset class. According to Etoday, Hanwha Investment & Securities CEO Jang Byung-ho wrote in the report that the primary goal of retail investment is to preserve purchasing power. He drew a parallel to the U.S. market in the 1980s, when bond investors would have seen their returns erode had they failed to recognize equities as a viable investment vehicle. Citing that lesson, Jang suggested investors consider digital assets as a new pillar for portfolio diversification. Diverging approaches from global central banksThese evolving viewpoints on crypto come against a complex global macroeconomic backdrop. From one perspective, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has begun quantitative easing (QE). Otavio Costa, a macro strategist at Crescat Capital, shared a chart on X showing that the value of the PBOC’s balance sheet assets is on track to surpass that of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Costa predicted the Fed would soon follow suit, stressing that investors are underexposed to hard assets. This potential easing contrasts with speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise interest rates next month. One BOJ board member noted at a recent policy meeting that most conditions for a hike have already been met and added that a move is likely once wage negotiations scheduled for spring point to sustained pay growth, as long as the global economy avoids major disruptions. These diverging policy directions have mixed implications for the crypto market. Typically, dovish measures like QE are seen as supportive, as increased liquidity tends to boost risk appetite. Rate hikes, by contrast, withdraw liquidity from the system, limiting the upside for risk assets like digital tokens. As economic conditions evolve and the industry adapts, investors will be watching closely to see how these shifts shape the market’s next moves. 

Philippines Delays Crypto Framework PublicationThe Philippines’ financial regulator has decided to postpone the release of a legal framework for the crypto industry, originally scheduled for late 2022, despite a tumultuous year.That’s according to a report published by local news outlet, Philstar Global. In the face of numerous market failures in 2022, the Philippines’ financial regulator has opted for a cautious approach and delayed the publication of a legal framework for the crypto industry, which was initially expected to be released by the end of the same year. However, work on the guidelines is still ongoing, and there is a possibility that the results could be made public in 2023.Photo by Krisia on PexelsScrutinizing crypto failuresAccording to the chairman of the Philippines Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Emilio Aquino, the regulatory authority has adjusted its previous deadlines for introducing the crypto framework in the country. The SEC had originally planned to roll out the guidelines in 2022, but they held back in order to thoroughly study the reasons behind the collapse of the FTX exchange and ensure the protection of investors.Aquino stated that there is still a chance that the framework will be issued by the end of 2023, saying, “We haven’t closed the door. We really just have to make sure people don’t get burned.”Earlier this year, the SEC joined forces with the University of the Philippines Law Center (UPLC) to collaborate on the development of guidelines for digital assets. In January 2023, the regulator introduced the Implementing Rules and Regulations of Republic Act No. 11765 for public comment. This act, which was signed into law in 2022, however, does not explicitly mention “crypto” or “blockchain.”The crypto industry in the Philippines has been facing increasing pressure. The country’s central bank has been urging citizens to refrain from engaging in any transactions with unregistered or foreign crypto exchanges, and the SEC has echoed these recommendations.In May 2023, the SEC identified Gemini Derivatives as an unregistered security product under national law. In the investor advisory, the Commission wrote: “The public is advised not to invest or to stop investing in the investment scheme of Gemini Trust Company, LLC.”Last month the country hosted a meeting of the Regional Consultative Group for Asia of the Financial Stability Board. That meeting, held in the Philippines' oldest city, Cebu, highlighted the risks pertaining to crypto assets.Potential for positive approachNevertheless, the Philippines remains an attractive destination for crypto enthusiasts. With its rapidly growing economy, it has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing markets, with over 11.6 million Filipinos owning digital assets, placing it 10th worldwide in terms of crypto adoption.In an opinion piece published by Forkast News in April, Robert De Guzman, Head of Legal Compliance at Philippines-based cryptocurrency exchange Coins.ph, outlined his view that the country is forging a positive, workable framework for crypto assets. With that, it sounds like while the delay is unwelcome, the more important factor is that the South East Asian country devises a framework that is fit for purpose relative to the innovation at hand.

Bali Governor Warns Tourists of Consequences of Crypto UseAuthorities in Bali have issued a stern warning to foreign tourists, cautioning against the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment.Bali Governor Wayan Koster delivered the message during a tourism development press conference on Sunday, stating that individuals who pay with crypto or violate other regulations could face severe consequences, including deportation, criminal penalties, or strict sanctions.Photo by Alfiano Sutianto on UnsplashCrypto use “dealt with firmly”According to reports from state-owned Indonesian news agency Antara, Governor Koster emphasized the need for firm action against foreign tourists who engage in inappropriate behavior, violate their visa permit conditions, attempt to use cryptocurrencies for transactions, or infringe upon other provisions. Koster stated that tourists that violate Indonesian law and use cryptocurrency for payment “will be dealt with firmly.”Indonesian law mandates that all transactions within the country must be conducted in the local currency, the rupiah. Individuals found using alternative currencies can face imprisonment of up to one year and fines of up to 200 million rupiah ($13,300). These regulations were initially implemented to safeguard the rupiah from the widespread use of the U.S. dollar in the country.‘Silicon Bali’In recent years, however, Bali has emerged as a popular destination for crypto enthusiasts, earning the moniker of ‘Silicon Bali.’ The island has witnessed the rise of cryptocurrencies, with the local crypto community even establishing physical spaces such as the clubhouse set up by Indonesian exchange Tokocrypto.While the use of cryptocurrencies as assets is permitted in Indonesia, their use as a form of payment is strictly prohibited. The country also imposes restrictions on individuals engaging in foreign exchange business activities, requiring them to obtain permission from Bank Indonesia.During the press conference, Governor Koster reiterated the regulations, emphasizing that violations would result in administrative sanctions, including written reprimands, fines, and prohibitions on payment transactions.This latest announcement is part of ongoing efforts to curb negative tourist behavior on the island. Bali, heavily reliant on tourism, experienced significant setbacks due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent travel restrictions. With the return of international visitors, new challenges have emerged.Earlier this year, Governor Koster proposed a ban on tourists using motorbikes following numerous traffic violations and accidents. Concerns have also been raised regarding tourists disrespecting local traditions by posing nude in sacred sites or engaging in digital nomad activities without obtaining proper visas.Policy strugglesThe firm stance taken in Bali on cryptocurrency payments aligns with the local administration’s commitment to upholding local regulations and maintaining the stability of the national currency. However, the Governor’s response is further evidence of the struggles that centralized governments and administrations around the world have been having in understanding decentralized cryptocurrency. The default position of many centralized governments has naturally enough been to control it.For that reason, we have seen administrations in places like India who have changed tact several times, sometimes banning crypto while at other times, permitting it. As time goes on, central administrators are beginning to realize that they can’t control it fully. They can only slow down its rate of progress at best.Over the course of the past 26 years, the Southeast Asian country’s sovereign currency has averaged an inflation rate of 9%, peaking in 1998 at a rate of 82%. Against that background, there’s likely to be an ever-growing interest in using decentralized cryptocurrency in the country.