North Korea becomes major nation-state holder of Bitcoin following hack

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

GroundX to Bring NFT Activities to 2023 Seoul Light Hangang Bitseom FestivalGroundX, the blockchain subsidiary of South Korean conglomerate Kakao, said Tuesday that it will host NFT-related activities at Seoul’s largest laser art festival, the 2023 Seoul Light Hangang Bitseom Festival, from October 6 to 15 in collaboration with the Seoul Metropolitan Government and other affiliates like LG Uplus and the Seoul Foundation for Arts and Culture.Photo by Wes Hicks on UnsplashMerging physical activity, learning, and artThe activities will fall under the theme of “3L”: Light Run, Laser Art, and Lecture. Light Run is a four-kilometer running course scheduled for October 6 and 14, for which GroundX will mint NFT certificates for participants who complete the course. The NFTs will contain information about the participant, as well as the date of the event and a record of completion. They will then automatically be sent to and stored in the participant’s Klip wallet, GroundX’s digital wallet service, and can be accessed at any time on the Klip app and KakaoTalk Wallet.GroundX said that it will also showcase digital artworks by eight artists, including Kim Duk-ki, Han Seung-ku, and Berry Kim. These works will be displayed on LED platforms installed at the Banpo and Ichon Hangang Parks.Kim Tae-keun, Head of Business at GroundX, is set to participate as a lecturer for the Bitseom Lecture segment on October 8, where he will discuss NFT art and the company’s vision for the media art industry. Bitseom Lecture is an outdoor art convergence lecture program that introduces immersive media artworks and technology in virtual reality (VR) and extended reality (XR).Bringing the NFT experience to Seoul“We hope that citizens visiting the Bitseom Festival will be able to get the real NFT experience through our media art displays, lectures, and running course completion certificates,” GroundX said. “We will continue to collaborate with various organizations and create NFT use cases through participation in offline festivals and events.”

China's authorities have dismantled an underground bank that illicitly utilized cryptocurrency for currency exchange operations between the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won, involving approximately 2.14 billion yuan ($295.8 million). China has a history of imposing strict capital control policies, prompting some individuals and entities to resort to cryptocurrency as a means of bypassing these regulations. According to a report published by local police in Northeast China’s Jilin province, six suspects were apprehended for their alleged involvement in facilitating the illegal operations spanning China and South Korea.Photo by Hyory Liu on UnsplashExploiting cryptocurrency featuresThe suspects purportedly took advantage of cryptocurrency features like transaction anonymity and decentralization to execute foreign currency exchange activities unlawfully. Investigations revealed that the criminal group utilized domestic accounts for fund receipt and transfer, alongside over-the-counter cryptocurrency transactions. Supporting illicit transactionsThe arrested individuals allegedly aided various entities, including South Korean purchasing agents, cross-border e-commerce platforms and import-export trade firms, in circumventing currency exchange regulations between the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won.