Ex-PBOC governor warns on stablecoin speculation, questions case for yuan peg

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle tied to halving events may be losing influence, according to a new outlook from crypto exchange Bybit and research firm Block Scholes that examines market conditions through 2026. The report suggests that Bitcoin price action may be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure rather than by new supply reductions. It says historical cycles have tended to track changes in global liquidity, often measured by global M2, and that this relationship has become more visible, while Bitcoin continues to respond to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.Photo by Pawel Czerwinski on UnsplashETFs reshaping demand dynamicsThe analysis points to structural changes in demand, citing the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growth of corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs). The report says ETF flows and corporate balance-sheet allocations are playing a larger role in price formation than retail trading. That shift is disrupting the traditional capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins and memecoins. As a result, the report suggests broad altcoin rallies may be harder to ignite, with gains depending on whether assets can be incorporated into institutional products such as ETFs. On the macro front, the report says markets are pricing in further Federal Reserve easing, with looser financial conditions potentially supporting a closer relationship between Bitcoin and major stock indexes despite recent underperformance versus U.S. equities. Based on options pricing, the report estimates a 10.3% implied probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $91,000. Index criteria and Japan policy in viewThe analysis also highlights policy risks, including potential volatility tied to concerns over the possible exclusion of Strategy from major stock indexes, which could affect companies holding digital assets on their balance sheets. That risk has since eased after MSCI paused a proposal that would have excluded firms with digital asset reserves, though Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cautioned that the issue could resurface in future rule reviews. The Bybit-Block Scholes report also cites potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year as another source of cross-asset risk, following its December rate hike of 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75%. RWA and stablecoinsOne area of focus in the report for 2026 is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which it describes as building on the stablecoin adoption that gathered pace last year. That view is echoed in a separate outlook from Moody’s, cited by Cointelegraph, which says fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits are functioning as “digital cash” for settlement, liquidity management, and collateral movement. Moody’s estimates stablecoins processed about $9 trillion in on-chain settlement volume in 2025 and projects banks, asset managers, and infrastructure providers could invest more than $300 billion in digital finance by 2030. As an example, Moody’s cited JPMorgan’s U.S. dollar–denominated deposit token, JPM Coin, as a way digital-cash layers can operate on top of existing banking systems. The bank’s Kinexys unit plans to work with Digital Asset to bring JPM Coin to Digital Asset’s Canton Network in a phased rollout during 2026. This follows JPMorgan’s expansion of the project onto Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base for institutional clients. 

Asia has taken the lead, surpassing North America, in terms of being a crypto developer hub according to a recent report. Electric Capital, a venture capital firm based in Silicon Valley in the United States, recently compiled a report centered upon global crypto developer data. Its analysis of the data has led to some interesting findings. Photo by Shubham Dhage on UnsplashNorth America loses its leadElectric Capital General Partner Maria Shen took to the X social media platform on Oct. 30 to provide further details on some key takeaways. In the first instance, Shen points out that North America has lost its lead in terms of crypto developer share, with Asia emerging as the leading region in this respect. Shen stated that “for the first time, Asia is the #1 continent for crypto talent.” Underpinning that claim, she provided data that identifies a drop in North America’s share of crypto developers from 44% in 2015 to 24% in 2024. Within the same timeframe, Asia’s share of crypto developer talent has increased from 13% to 32%. Teasing the data out further, the United States still remains the number one country for crypto devs on a country-by-country basis. It leads this particular metric with 18.8% of the developer talent pool, followed by India with 11.8% and the United Kingdom with 4.2%. A consequence of U.S. regulatory uncertaintyRegulatory uncertainty in the United States has been identified as a contributing factor by some crypto community commentators. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the U.S. has engaged in regulation by enforcement rather than establishing a bespoke regulatory framework for crypto.  This approach has led to SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda calling crypto regulation in the U.S. “a disaster” earlier this month. Others, like Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, have gone further, describing the approach of the Biden Administration to crypto as “Operation Choke Point 2.0,” suggesting that there is an active plan being implemented to suppress the industry. This negative approach has led many U.S.-headquartered crypto firms to pursue growth opportunities overseas, particularly within centers in Asia and the Middle East such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong and Singapore. All of these centers have taken the opposite approach, deliberately working towards putting purpose-made regulatory frameworks in place over the course of the past two years, in order to get crypto innovation started on the right footing. Shen underscored the issue from a U.S. perspective, by pointing out that 81% of crypto devs, who are actively playing their part in shaping the future of digital money, live outside the U.S. She highlighted the significance of this, stating: “This is a national security issue & innovation drain for the US.” In a subsequent post, she questioned whether this had come about due to a negative regulatory environment, adding that “the US needs clear crypto policy to maintain its country lead.” 

Hong Kong’s OSL crypto exchange receives $91M boostBC Technology Group, the owner of the licensed OSL exchange, has secured a HK$710 million ($90.9 million) investment from BGX.Photo by Precondo CA on UnsplashBringing clarity to BitgetX market withdrawalBGX is reportedly associated with Seychelles-incorporated crypto exchange Bitget. The investment, which was announced via statements published by both BC Technology Group and BGX on their respective websites on Tuesday, brings further clarity to the rationale behind Bitget’s recent decision to withdraw its BitgetX platform from the Hong Kong market.BitgetX was believed to be working towards crypto licensing in Hong Kong. Its decision on Monday to stop pursuing a virtual asset trading platform (VATP) license and withdraw from the market entirely had been perceived as a weakness of the regulatory regimen in Hong Kong. However, it now appears that it was just clearing the way for involvement in crypto trading brought about through its investment in OSL, an entity that has already acquired a trading license within the Chinese autonomous territory.BGX has entered into an agreement to acquire a 29.97% stake in BC Technology, OSL's parent company, pending shareholder approval. According to an announcement, BGX CEO Patrick Pan Zhiyong is set to become one of two new executive directors as part of this investment. Pan, concurrently serving as the CEO of BitgetX, will also oversee the transition as Bitget steps back from the market, scheduling its platform closure for Dec. 13.Sale rumors deniedReports emerged in October that BC Technology Group was considering the sale of OSL based on a $128 million valuation. Contrary to those reports, BC Technology vehemently denied any intentions to sell OSL, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining the exchange’s operations. The company dismissed such speculation as “factually inaccurate and highly misleading,” underscoring its dedication to navigating the evolving crypto landscape.Bitget, responding to inquiries from the South China Morning Post (SCMP), asserted its independence from BGX, stating that it is “an independent entity” with no legal or commercial connections to the crypto firm.BGX is incorporated in the Cayman Islands and wholly owned by Liu Shuai, the founder of Shenzhen Qianhai Junchuang Fund Management and Singaporean crypto fund Foresight Ventures. Liu’s investment portfolio includes Bitget, as well as U.S. crypto media group The Block, which was acquired by Foresight Ventures, according to reports earlier this week.The incorporation of BGX into BC Technology’s ecosystem introduces a dynamic player with diverse investments across the crypto space. Against the backdrop of Hong Kong’s changing regulatory landscape, with the introduction of a mandatory licensing scheme last year, BC Technology’s OSL was the first exchange to obtain a voluntary license from the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in 2020. The asset management division of the company received a trading license in May of this year. In August, OSL, along with HashKey, received approval from the SFC to upgrade their licenses, allowing them to serve retail investors.The evolving regulatory environment reflects Hong Kong’s ambition to position itself as a crypto hub, attracting both institutional and retail participants. While that endeavor is not without its challenges, the city hasn’t been adversely affected by BitgetX's withdrawal from the market, given this related investment in OSL.