Over half of BTC supply now at a loss, a potential bottom signal

The volume of Bitcoin held at a loss based on its on-chain acquisition price has surpassed 10.5 million BTC, accounting for more than half of the total circulating supply, CoinDesk reported. Citing data from Glassnode, the report noted that this is the first time this cycle that the volume of BTC in a loss has exceeded the volume in profit. This phenomenon has historically occurred only during bear markets and has often coincided with market bottoms. On June 4, as the price of BTC fell to $61,300, the volume of coins in a loss state peaked at approximately 10.5 million BTC. With a total circulating supply of around 20 million BTC, this means over half of all coins are in an unrealized loss. During the same period, the volume of coins in profit fell to about 9.8 million BTC. However, the report cautioned that predicting the duration of a market bottom is difficult, as the length of time this loss-profit balance has persisted has varied widely in the past: about one year in 2015, six months in 2019, one month during the March 2020 crash, and six months in 2022. The analysis also pointed out that with the price having reached its 200-week moving average (around $61,300), a key support level in past bear markets, a break below $60,000 could see the next major support zone near the realized price of approximately $54,000, which represents the average acquisition cost of all coins.