Vitalik sees SNARK computation costs falling to under 10x regular computing before 2030

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin said computation using SNARKs, a zero-knowledge proof technology, is likely to cost less than 10 times regular computation before 2030. In a post on X, Buterin said he sees a 60% chance that SNARKs, fully homomorphic encryption, and indistinguishability obfuscation can all be implemented at under 10 times the cost of normal computing over the long term. Among the three, SNARKs are the most likely to reach that point before 2030, he said. Buterin added that new techniques to improve computational efficiency in SNARKs and fully homomorphic encryption have been emerging rapidly, with especially notable progress in methods that process multiple computations at once. Over a longer horizon, he said he sees a 33% chance that all three technologies will advance to the point where their costs are nearly the same as those of regular computation.