QCP Capital: Bitcoin Has $34K Price Potential

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle tied to halving events may be losing influence, according to a new outlook from crypto exchange Bybit and research firm Block Scholes that examines market conditions through 2026. The report suggests that Bitcoin price action may be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure rather than by new supply reductions. It says historical cycles have tended to track changes in global liquidity, often measured by global M2, and that this relationship has become more visible, while Bitcoin continues to respond to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.Photo by Pawel Czerwinski on UnsplashETFs reshaping demand dynamicsThe analysis points to structural changes in demand, citing the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growth of corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs). The report says ETF flows and corporate balance-sheet allocations are playing a larger role in price formation than retail trading. That shift is disrupting the traditional capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins and memecoins. As a result, the report suggests broad altcoin rallies may be harder to ignite, with gains depending on whether assets can be incorporated into institutional products such as ETFs. On the macro front, the report says markets are pricing in further Federal Reserve easing, with looser financial conditions potentially supporting a closer relationship between Bitcoin and major stock indexes despite recent underperformance versus U.S. equities. Based on options pricing, the report estimates a 10.3% implied probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $91,000. Index criteria and Japan policy in viewThe analysis also highlights policy risks, including potential volatility tied to concerns over the possible exclusion of Strategy from major stock indexes, which could affect companies holding digital assets on their balance sheets. That risk has since eased after MSCI paused a proposal that would have excluded firms with digital asset reserves, though Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cautioned that the issue could resurface in future rule reviews. The Bybit-Block Scholes report also cites potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year as another source of cross-asset risk, following its December rate hike of 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75%. RWA and stablecoinsOne area of focus in the report for 2026 is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which it describes as building on the stablecoin adoption that gathered pace last year. That view is echoed in a separate outlook from Moody’s, cited by Cointelegraph, which says fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits are functioning as “digital cash” for settlement, liquidity management, and collateral movement. Moody’s estimates stablecoins processed about $9 trillion in on-chain settlement volume in 2025 and projects banks, asset managers, and infrastructure providers could invest more than $300 billion in digital finance by 2030. As an example, Moody’s cited JPMorgan’s U.S. dollar–denominated deposit token, JPM Coin, as a way digital-cash layers can operate on top of existing banking systems. The bank’s Kinexys unit plans to work with Digital Asset to bring JPM Coin to Digital Asset’s Canton Network in a phased rollout during 2026. This follows JPMorgan’s expansion of the project onto Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base for institutional clients. 

Korea’s Code Launches System to Detect Blacklisted Crypto WalletsCode, the only Travel Rule solution provider in South Korea, announced on Monday the launch of Protector, a detection system designed to identify blacklisted wallets in the cryptocurrency space. Established by a collaboration between three major Korean cryptocurrency exchanges (Bithumb, Coinone, and Korbit), Code aims to enhance security and compliance in the industry.Photo by Mariia Shalabaieva on UnsplashTravel RuleThe Travel Rule is a regulation that requires financial institutions to share information with each other about transactions to ensure their legitimacy and to prevent money laundering, terrorist financing, and other illicit activities.Wallet risk assessmentsThe Protector system of Code allows its members to assess risks associated with external wallets and take appropriate measures during the withdrawal and deposit of virtual assets. Risks will be categorized into three levels, represented by the colors white, gray, and black. A white designation signifies a normal status, gray serves as a warning, and black indicates a danger.Not only does Protector enable members to manage risks linked to crypto wallets more effectively, it also allows them to monitor the management status of Code’s Travel Rule.Streamlining regulatory complianceCode CEO Lee Sung-mi stated that the recently launched Protector system is designed to streamline regulatory compliance for Code members. By utilizing Protector, members can concentrate on their projects without being burdened by compliance concerns. Lee also emphasized that Code is committed to expanding its range of services for members in the future.The detection system was developed and is operated in partnership with Uppsala Security, a Singapore-based cybersecurity company specializing in blockchain-powered solutions.

Korean Pharma and Running App Employ NFTs to Promote Fatigue ReliefDaewoong Pharmaceutical recently announced its collaboration with D-Run, an NFT-based running app, to employ non-fungible tokens (NFTs) in marketing a fatigue relief product to millennials and Generation Z.©Pexels/Anna ShvetsUnique NFT IllustrationsFor the project, two unique NFT illustrations have been designed, showcasing a brown bear and a red heart with arms and legs. The bear, named Uri, represents Daewoong’s fatigue relief product UR-Shot, and the heart serves as D-Run’s mascot DZ. In one NFT edition, Uri and DZ are depicted running across a bridge, while the other shows them lying down on a grassy lawn under a tree.Each edition will have 100 NFTs available for purchase on Klip Drops, an NFT marketplace operated by Kakao’s blockchain subsidiary Ground X, from April 26 to May 9. NFT buyers will receive 20 tablets of UR-Shot and D-Run merchandise.Millennial and Gen Z runnersDaewoong’s partnership with D-Run, a platform operated by online media outlet dongA.com, a subsidiary of the nation’s leading newspaper Donga Ilbo, aims to connect with the digital-savvy millennial and Gen Z runners. This collaboration promotes UR-Shot as a healthy energy booster. In November last year, Daewoong introduced NFTs featuring Uri to attract millennials and Gen Z consumers.NFTs as marketing strategyNFTs are tokens that utilize blockchain technology to prove ownership of virtual assets. Due to their scarcity and irreplaceability, NFTs have recently become increasingly influential in the digital art sphere such as paintings and videos. In particular, young consumers often use NFTs as a tool to have fun and express themselves.Park Eun-kyung, the head of the consumer healthcare marketing team at Daewoong, said that this NFT collaboration to reach out to young consumers is the first marketing initiative of its kind in the pharmaceutical industry. Daewoong will continue to keep an eye on the consumption culture of younger generations and conduct various digital marketing programs to alleviate customers’ daily fatigue, she added