Top

Maelstrom CIO predicts temporary bitcoin plunge

Markets·January 06, 2024, 1:49 AM

As the cryptocurrency market anticipates the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the subsequent boost to bitcoin’s unit price, Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of family office Maelstrom, has issued a warning of potential market turbulence.

 

Hayes, better known as the founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has moved on to Hong Kong-based Maelstrom, a family office that invests in early stage infrastructure ventures that implicate a move towards the decentralization of everything.

Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash

Macroeconomic risk factors

In a detailed blog post on Friday, Hayes outlines a number of macroeconomic variables that could lead to a bitcoin unit price downturn.

 

Hayes begins by highlighting the depletion of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has served as a significant driver for risky assets over the past year. This program allows qualified banks and investment firms to park cash and earn interest on it. The RRP balance has rapidly declined from a record high of $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 to $700 billion. Hayes projects it to reach its historical average of $200 billion by March. As this liquidity source dwindles, he anticipates negative impacts on bonds and stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies.

 

Fed BTFP expiration

The second factor contributing to the potential market turmoil is the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12. This crucial Fed facility is designed to provide longer-term loans to commercial banks. The mechanism aids banking sector stability.

 

Hayes is concerned that the BTFP might not be extended. Such an eventuality could lead to bankruptcy for banks holding massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings. It could lead to a “liquidity rug pull” event reminiscent of the banking crisis in March of the previous year.

 

The crypto OG predicts that such an eventuality would force a response. “The combination of a lack of liquidity gushing from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover the bond losses on banks’ balance sheets will decimate the financial markets globally,” he wrote.

 

Hayes asserts that the combination of reduced liquidity from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover bond losses could have a global impact on financial markets. In response to this scenario, he predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates during its March 20 meeting and reinstate the BTFP funding line.

 

‘Healthy’ correction

In terms of bitcoin’s price, Hayes foresees a “healthy” correction of 20% to 30% from early March prices if the outlined scenario unfolds. However, he suggests the decline could be as much as 40% if BTC rallies to $60,000-$70,000 in the coming weeks. Despite this temporary plunge, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s resilience, emphasizing its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally.

 

In a recent podcast appearance, Hayes expressed the view that the business model of U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether will be challenged once multinational banks receive the go-ahead to offer fiat-backed stablecoins.

 

Overall, Arthur Hayes has urged investors to be cautious and to prepare for potential market volatility in March, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interconnected factors influencing both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market.

 

More to Read
View All
Markets·

Sep 08, 2025

Asia-Pacific leads a wider crypto uptake as legal and security risks persist

A new report indicates that the global use of cryptocurrency is not only growing but also quickening, with the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region setting the pace. According to the sixth Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index, released on Sept. 2, India has emerged as the new leader in overall adoption across 151 countries. The index analyzes where value is being transferred, how new users are entering the ecosystem, and which areas are experiencing the most rapid expansion.Photo by Naveed Ahmed on UnsplashIndia leads global crypto adoptionIndia now holds the top spot in the overall index, with the U.S. following in second place. The APAC region demonstrates significant momentum, with Pakistan (3rd), Vietnam (4th), Indonesia (7th), and the Philippines (9th) all securing positions in the top ten. Further down, South Korea and Japan are ranked 15th and 19th, respectively.2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index Top 20 Source: ChainalysisThe picture changes when the data is adjusted for per capita GDP, which highlights grassroots movements. By this measure, Ukraine ranks first, followed by Moldova, Georgia, and Jordan. Hong Kong comes in fifth, Vietnam sixth, while Singapore and South Korea rank 16th and 18th, respectively.2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index Top 20 (Pop. adjusted) Source: ChainalysisRegional transactions surge as APAC gains groundOn-chain transaction data confirms a shift in economic gravity. In the year ending June 2025, APAC's transaction value soared by 69% year-over-year, climbing from $1.4 trillion to $2.36 trillion. While Europe ($2.6 trillion) and North America ($2.2 trillion) still handle larger absolute volumes, growth is accelerating nearly everywhere. APAC's growth rate more than doubled from 27% to 69%, while Latin America's rose from 53% to 63%. In terms of capital entering the crypto market via centralized exchanges, the U.S. leads as the largest fiat on-ramp, processing over $4.2 trillion. This is approximately four times the volume of South Korea (over $1 trillion), while the EU recorded just under $500 billion. Asset preferences also show regional variations; Bitcoin accounted for 47% of purchases in the U.K. and 45% in the EU, but just over 20% in South Korea.  India's top ranking aligns with the latest domestic developments, such as the Independence Day launch of the Bitcoin Policy Institute India, which aims to focus on sovereign mining, policy, and education. Legal and security challenges in IndiaHowever, this rapid growth is accompanied by notable legal and security hurdles. In a high-profile case, an Indian anti-corruption court sentenced 14 individuals, including 11 police officers, to life in prison for a 2018 kidnapping and crypto extortion scheme. In another development, creditors of India's crypto exchange WazirX approved a new restructuring plan over a year after a $234 million hack allegedly linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. An earlier proposal was rejected by the Singapore High Court in April. The revised plan shifts oversight of recovery tokens—representing outstanding balances—from WazirX’s Singapore entity to Zanmai India, regulated by India’s financial authority, with repayments funded by profits and recovered assets. Some 150,000 creditors, representing $206 million in claims, voted between July 30 and Aug. 6 as WazirX also moved operations to a Panama-based unit called Zensui. Separately, on April 16, India’s Supreme Court dismissed a petition from 54 hack victims, ruling it lacked authority to legislate on crypto policy. While India’s headlines highlight the frictions of rapid growth, the broader picture is clearer. The Chainalysis index illustrates a global crypto market expanding across all income levels for varied reasons. In developed nations, clearer regulations and institutional involvement are key drivers. In many emerging economies, factors like remittances and access to U.S. dollars via stablecoins are more prominent. 

news
Policy & Regulation·

Nov 08, 2024

Japan to fine-tune crypto regulations to protect investors

Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) is proposing new legislation in an effort to prevent the assets of Japanese investors held on crypto exchanges from being transferred overseas. According to local news outlet Jiji Press, the Japanese regulator recently put forward the idea of drafting such a bill. It’s thought that the move suggests that the Japanese regulators have learned from the collapses of cryptocurrency exchanges Mt. Gox and FTX. Photo by Jaison Lin on UnsplashLearning from past failuresWhile Japan already had a higher standard of regulation in place prior to the FTX collapse, likely as a consequence of the authorities having experienced the downfall of Mt. Gox in February 2014, there is still room for improvement.  While funds had been ring-fenced for FTX Japan users, those who accessed services advertised in Japan through the FTX app were deemed to have been accessing a service which fell under an international jurisdiction, denying them the same protections otherwise offered to FTX Japan platform users as a consequence of the regulations that had been put in place. Incorporating a holding orderJapanese media outlet Nikkei described this latest move by the Japanese FSA as follows: “The Financial Services Agency is moving towards creating a new ‘holding order’ in the Payment Services Act, which regulates cryptocurrency exchanges, that will order them not to take domestic assets entrusted to them by customers overseas.” Consequently, the regulator is looking to add this as the latest proposed amendment to the Payment Services Act. Back in September it emerged that amendments to that existing legislation were being looked at with a view towards making it easier for businesses to incorporate digital assets into their service offerings. The regulator has also been mulling over the reclassification of crypto as a financial instrument by amending the Payment Services Act accordingly. Additionally, a more generous tax policy is being proposed. Currently, the Japanese authorities impose a tax rate of up to 55% on cryptocurrency-related revenues. Corporate holders of digital assets have to apply a 30% tax rate, irrespective of income or profits. With that, a 20% tax rate is being considered. The matter became a political issue prior to the East Asian nation’s recent elections, with the leader of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) backing the application of a 20% crypto tax rate. The application of a holding order has applied previously to companies that have been registered under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This proposed amendment would see it applied to virtual asset trading platforms as part of the Payment Services Act. Guarding against bankruptcy lossesIf applied, the amendment would prevent loss of Japanese investor funds in circumstances where a crypto exchange platform goes into bankruptcy. Legal precedent set in the FTX bankruptcy in the United States means that if a user’s funds go into a non-individually segregated hot wallet belonging to an exchange, any property rights, even if explicitly outlined in the terms of service, are lost.  A company can make a case to go into bankruptcy in any international jurisdiction, which means that this precedent has potential implications for all market participants. The proposed amendment from the Japanese FSA would serve to protect investors from such an eventuality.

news
Web3 & Enterprise·

Aug 22, 2023

Blockchain Experts from Ethereum, Solana, and More to Visit Seoul for Upbit D Conference

Blockchain Experts from Ethereum, Solana, and More to Visit Seoul for Upbit D ConferenceDunamu, the fintech company operating South Korea’s leading crypto exchange Upbit, has unveiled the lineup of international speakers for the upcoming sixth annual Upbit D Conference (UDC). Scheduled to take place on November 13, the conference will bring together global blockchain specialists from notable projects like Ethereum and Solana to explore the latest trends and insights in the industry as well as future prospects.Photo by Terren Hurst on UnsplashThe roster of speakers includes renowned figures such as Tom Teman, Product Manager at Ethereum Foundation; Roger Ver, Founder of Bitcoin.com; and Wally Yu, Solutions Architect at Chainlink Labs. Korean speakers, such as Sehyeon Oh, Executive Vice President of telecommunications giant SK Telecom, are also set to attend.Empowering Korea’s blockchain landscapeSince its inception in 2018, UDC has grown to become Korea’s central blockchain conference. Conceived as a means to contribute to the domestic blockchain ecosystem without focusing on generating profit, the conference has consistently garnered praise for its in-depth presentations from global experts and a wide variety of sessions.Under the theme coined “All That Blockchain,” this year’s conference is open to anyone interested in blockchain, Dunamu said. The “D” in UDC stands for various keywords related to blockchain, including digital assets, decentralization, and developers. However, the focus of the conference has evolved beyond just technology, now encompassing areas such as policy, finance, technology, culture, and societal trends.Event detailsThe conference will be conducted in a hybrid — both online and offline — format, allowing a higher level of participation without the constraints of time and place. Though it will be hosted at the Grand Walkerhill Seoul hotel, anyone anywhere can tune in live through the official UDC YouTube channel. Simultaneous interpretation will also be provided in Korean and English.Dunamu will kick off registrations for both online and offline attendance starting from 10:00 AM KST on September 11. Due to the limited venue capacity, offline tickets will be available on a first come, first served basis.

news
Loading