Maelstrom CIO predicts temporary bitcoin plunge

Rising Cryptocurrency Arbitrage Transactions Raise Concerns in South KoreaThe number of arbitrage transactions between South Korean and foreign cryptocurrency exchanges has been experiencing a notable uptick, according to a report by local media outlet Maeil Business Newspaper.In recent developments, foreign actors engaging in price manipulation have been transferring substantial amounts of cryptocurrency assets to Korean exchanges, driving up prices. Subsequently, they transfer these tokens from Korean exchanges back to overseas platforms, capitalizing on the price discrepancies to generate profits.Photo by Maxim Hopman on UnsplashBithumb’s case in H1According to documents submitted to Kim Hee-gon, a member of the ruling political party People Power Party, on Monday, KRW 3.4 trillion ($2.6 billion) worth of tokens were moved from Bithumb, a leading Korean cryptocurrency exchange, to foreign trading platforms during the first half of this year. Although this figure marks a 40% decrease compared to H1 2022’s KRW 5.7 trillion, primarily due to the significant decline in token prices across the cryptocurrency market, it’s noteworthy that the number of transactions has seen a significant increase.Other exchangesGopax, another major exchange in the nation, recorded token outflows totaling KRW 12.3 billion. On the other hand, Upbit, Coinone, and Korbit, which are also prominent exchanges, declined to provide data due to reasons like confidentiality concerns. However, given that Upbit holds an 82.0% share of the Korean crypto market, nearly four times larger than Bithumb’s share (14.2%), it is suspected that the volume of tokens transferred from Upbit to foreign platforms would likely have followed a similar proportion.While the value of tokens sent from Bithumb to overseas operators saw a year-over-year decrease, the number of transactions surged to 231,302, nearly doubling the figure of H1 2022’s 124,048 transactions. The average transaction size was KRW 14.7 million.Even though the overall enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies might have cooled off since last year, the spike in the number of transactions suggests that there’s been a surge in arbitrage trading between Korea and foreign markets.Kimchi premiumEarlier this month, a significant transaction caught the eye of cryptocurrency market observers in South Korea. On September 1, crypto data analytics firm Arkham identified that 170,000 CyberConnect (CYBER) tokens were transferred to Bithumb from a crypto wallet thought to be owned by DWF Labs, a firm specializing in cryptocurrency trading and investment. The timing of the transaction coincides with a period during which the Kimchi premium for CYBER exceeded 100%. The Kimchi premium refers to the crypto price gap between Korean exchanges and their foreign counterparts.The complicating factor here is that DWF Labs is a foreign entity that is managed by a foreign team.The use of corporate accounts is virtually prohibited in the Korean crypto market. The Travel Rule mandates that any transfers of tokens between Korean and international exchanges must go through accounts that have been verified under Know Your Customer (KYC) guidelines. Given these regulations, there are growing suspicions within the crypto community that foreign venture capitalists may have used accounts in borrowed names to conduct sales on Korean exchanges, which are restricted to Korean citizens. However, it’s worth noting that there is currently no legal basis for taking punitive action even if borrowed-name accounts were indeed used.Lawmaker Kim commented on the limitations of current financial regulations aimed at preventing money laundering in the cryptocurrency market. Despite efforts by financial authorities, including the introduction of the Travel Rule, Kim stated that these measures have not been very effective. He emphasized the urgency of enhancing the regulatory framework to curb potential illicit activities involving cryptocurrencies, such as those exploiting market arbitrage opportunities.

While many people assumed that Bitcoin hashrate had moved overseas once China implemented a Bitcoin mining ban in 2021, miners within mainland China still dominate the activity. 55% of hashrateThat’s according to a report on X by Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of crypto data analytics firm CryptoQuant. Taking to the social media platform on September 23, the CryptoQuant CEO claimed that Chinese mining pools account for 55% of all Bitcoin mining activity.  Since the 2021 ban, an increasing proportion of hashrate has been accounted for elsewhere, including the United States. Ju clarifies that U.S.-based mining pools now account for 40% of Bitcoin hashrate. He added:”U.S. pools primarily cater to institutional miners in America, while Chinese pools support relatively smaller miners in Asia.”Photo by Joshua Sortino on UnsplashShift towards U.S.-based miningWhile the majority of Bitcoin mining is accounted for within China’s borders, Ju acknowledges a growing shift towards U.S.-based mining. Some commentators have speculated that while officially a ban was put in place, in reality the ban presented an opportunity to jettison inefficient mining equipment, selling it on overseas, while maintaining only the most efficient miners within China. Others such as Daniel Batten, an advisor to Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital, went further in suggesting that the reporting of a blanket ban on Bitcoin mining within China was misleading. Instead, he believes that mining was suspended for a time and then rebooted. Taking to X in June, Batten wrote: “Stop referring to it as a ban. It wasn't and it plays into [mainstream media] narratives of Bitcoin mining being unwelcome by nation states.” At the time, rather than Ju’s 55%, Batten estimated that 15% of overall hashrate was accounted for by Chinese miners. Profitability challengesIn the months following the halving of the Bitcoin mining reward, miners have been struggling to maintain profitability. Bitbo data indicates that miner revenue weighed in at $827.56 million in August, representing a 10.5% drop when compared with $927.35 million in July. The situation has raised questions about the ongoing sustainability of securing the Bitcoin network via the current mining model.  Yet despite these adverse conditions, miners have been maintaining the high hashrate level. JPMorgan analysts recently indicated that the Bitcoin hashrate has recovered to pre-halving levels. A report by Decrypt earlier this month claimed that some miners are aggressively purchasing new mining equipment while maintaining significant holdings of Bitcoin rather than selling it off. Alongside what was perceived to be a ban on Bitcoin mining in 2021, China prohibited the trading of cryptocurrencies. Notwithstanding that, it’s thought that many Chinese residents have access to crypto via bank accounts in Hong Kong, connected with global crypto exchanges. Hong Kong is perceived to be China’s sandbox for crypto with many speculating that the current pro-crypto stance taken within the Chinese autonomous territory had been approved by the authorities in mainland China. Whether China will lift its ban on crypto trading remains the subject of ongoing speculation. 

Singapore’s MAS gears up for live CBDC pilotThe Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has unveiled plans to initiate a live central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot for wholesale interbank settlement in 2024.Photo by Sergio Sala on UnsplashMoving beyond simulationThis pilot will move beyond simulation, involving the actual utilization of a live wholesale CBDC for settling payments between commercial banks. Furthermore, MAS indicated that upcoming pilots may extend to leveraging wholesale CBDCs for the settlement of cross-border securities trade.MAS Managing Director Ravi Menon expressed the significance of this move, stating:“The ‘live’ issuance of central bank digital money for use as a common settlement asset in payments is a significant milestone in MAS’ digital money journey that began in 2016. The issuance of wholesale CBDC reinforces the role that central bank money plays in facilitating safe and efficient payments.”Orchid BlueprintThis announcement is a key component of the Orchid Blueprint, a comprehensive plan detailing the infrastructure essential for facilitating the pilot and future developments. In addition to the wholesale CBDC initiative, the Orchid Blueprint outlines the expansion of trials to encompass tokenized bank liabilities and regulated stablecoins, solidifying Singapore’s commitment to fostering innovation in the digital finance space.As part of the Orchid Blueprint, MAS is set to create a settlement ledger to record digital money transfers. This ledger will incorporate features like programmability and atomic settlement of digital tokens. To enhance user experience, a “Name Service” for customer-friendly wallet addresses and name identifiers is on the agenda. Additionally, a tokenization bridge will be developed to connect existing account-based settlement systems with ledgers compatible with tokenized forms of digital money.Purpose-bound moneyThe Orchid Blueprint introduces a “programmability protocol” based on the concept of “purpose-bound money” (PBM). PBM, a concept considered by the MAS in a whitepaper that it published earlier this year, allows for the specification of certain conditions for the use of digital money, enabling automation of transactions and predefined conditions for settlement. This innovative approach empowers centralized planners to define the conditions for usage, bringing a new level of flexibility to the digital financial landscape.This development aligns with the broader trend of increasing institutional interest in digital currencies and blockchain technology. The move towards live CBDC pilots, tokenization and stablecoins underscores Singapore’s commitment to staying at the forefront of financial innovation. As the Orchid Blueprint unfolds, it sets the stage for a dynamic and technologically advanced financial ecosystem, reinforcing Singapore’s position as a leader in the global digital finance arena.In a related move within the region, crypto firm Paxos recently announced plans to launch a new USD-backed stablecoin in Singapore, receiving in-principle approval from MAS to issue the stablecoin. Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva outlined in a keynote speech at the Singapore FinTech Festival earlier this week that CBDCs not only could replace cash but also improve financial inclusion.These concurrent developments indicate the growing convergence of traditional financial systems with the expanding digital currency landscape.