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Positive market sentiment ahead of Bitcoin halving

Markets·February 07, 2024, 2:23 AM

Seychelles-incorporated crypto exchange platform Bitget recently released findings from a study on Bitcoin's upcoming halving, revealing that the vast majority of surveyed investors predict bitcoin will achieve a new all-time high (ATH) in 2024. Separately, other market commentators and analysts appear to be bullish on bitcoin ahead of the scheduled cut in Bitcoin mining rewards.

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84% anticipate new bitcoin ATH

The study, based on anonymized data from 9,748 participants worldwide, focused on investor perceptions surrounding the halving's impact on their investment decisions.

 

84% of participants anticipate a new ATH for bitcoin during the next bull run, with only East Europe showing a percentage lower than 80%. Over 50% predict bitcoin's price to be between $30,000 and $60,000 by the time the halving occurs in April. Meanwhile, 30% foresee the bitcoin unit price going higher than $60,000.

 

Off the back of the data that has arisen via the study, Bitget managing director Gracy Chen suggested that it is indicative that 2024 will be a significant year for the bitcoin market.

 

Crypto investment plans

Approximately 70% express plans to increase their crypto investments, with the highest conviction in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and East Europe regions. Western European investors are characterized as "short-term cautious" and "long-term optimistic."

 

In addition to the Bitget study, many market commentators appear to have arrived at a similar conclusion. In July of last year, Standard Chartered Bank forecasted a 2024 unit price for bitcoin of $120,000. The bank reaffirmed that view last month, going further still in stating that by 2025, it expected bitcoin to reach a price of $200,000, largely due to capital inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in the United States in January.

 

Broader market sentiment

Taking to social media on Monday, crypto analyst Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments proposed a potential 500% price return for bitcoin if a bullish halving pattern plays out. Edwards envisions bitcoin reaching $280,000 in 2025. Like Standard Chartered, he cites the January bitcoin ETF launch as the driving force, likening it to a "second halving." He argues that major technological developments have historically seen quicker rates of adoption.

 

Crypto trading analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts a pre-halving surge to $48,000 and an eventual breakout toward an all-time high in Q3/Q4 of 2024. The next Bitcoin halving is expected in April 2024, historically associated with increased scarcity and subsequent price surges.

 

Pseudonymous macroeconomist @Micro2Macr0 took to the X social media platform on Monday, stating:

"Only 2.5 months till the #Bitcoin #Halving. The world is getting more unstable and you have the greatest hedge ever invented sitting in front of you. What are you waiting for?" 

 

Meanwhile, "British HODL" warned that recent developments may result in a break from previous trading patterns. He stated:

"Everyone says 12 months after the halving the shock starts for #Bitcoin price. . . . I think there is a high likelihood that the ETF’s change the cycle you’re expecting. Be aware of that.”

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Markets·

Dec 07, 2023

Market speculates on Qatari investment driving bitcoin price surge

Market speculates on Qatari investment driving bitcoin price surgeRumors are circulating within the cryptocurrency space that Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund may have dabbled in investing in bitcoin, leading to the recent surge in the bitcoin unit price.Such a move, while still an unconfirmed speculation, would be indicative of the increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a mainstream asset class. At the time of writing, bitcoin stands at $44,000. That represents a 16% increase over the space of the past week and a 166% increase since the beginning of the year.Photo by Yiğit Ali Atasoy on UnsplashKeiser’s claimAccording to outspoken Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund (QSWF), responsible for managing the nation’s significant oil and gas-generated wealth, is considering allocating up to $500 billion to the leading cryptocurrency.To provide context, this investment would eclipse the publicly disclosed bitcoin holdings of MicroStrategy, founded by Michael Saylor, by an astonishing 671 times. MicroStrategy currently holds the position of the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 174,530 BTC acquired in November.Keiser speculates that the QSWF’s monumental investment could propel bitcoin’s price to new highs, reaching $100,000. Keiser tweeted:“The God Candle, a $100,000 uptick in #Bitcoin is in play. It will shift the global axis of wealth and power in 1 tick.”Custodia Bank Founder and CEO Caitlin Long shared a similar view on the X social media platform on Wednesday, pointing out that in September the Emir of Qatar had visited El Salvador and met with President Nayib Bukele. The inference is that it would have been an interest in bitcoin that may have provided the motivation for that visit, given that Bukele and El Salvador have adopted bitcoin as a sovereign currency.However, not everyone is on board with this theory. Some have pointed out that the assertion that the QSWF will invest $500 billion into bitcoin is impossible, given that the fund has $475 billion under management.Bitcoin advocate Luke Broyles weighed in on the rumor, emphasizing the crucial interplay between bitcoin’s supply and demand. Broyles highlighted the $76 billion worth of BTC still available on crypto exchanges, underscoring the fundamental principle of bitcoin’s fixed supply. According to Broyles, any substantial investment would inevitably drive prices higher.However, Broyles remains skeptical of the Qatar news, deeming it a rumor, and expressed shock if it proves remotely true. That view has led many back to the original speculation in relation to this most recent price action, the illusive bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the United States.Some activity in recent days has suggested that BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, has been doing preparatory work for the launch of its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. Not everyone was positive on the topic of Bitcoin on Wednesday, however. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testified before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday, stating “If I were the government I’d close [Bitcoin] down.”

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Policy & Regulation·

Dec 08, 2023

Bitzlato co-founder to pleads guilty in US to illicit funds processing

Bitzlato co-founder to pleads guilty in US to illicit funds processingAnatoly Legkodymov, the co-founder and majority owner of Hong Kong-registered virtual currency exchange Bitzlato, entered a guilty plea in a U.S. court on Wednesday in relation to illicit funds transfer activity.Photo by Max Sandelin on UnsplashNew York court appearanceAccording to a Department of Justice press release, Legkodymov, a Russian national, appeared before U.S. District Judge Eric Vitaliano for a “criminal cause for pleading,” signaling a guilty plea.Legkodymov, 41, was arrested in Miami on Jan. 17 and has been held at the Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC) in Brooklyn since then. U.S. authorities accused him of processing approximately $700 million in illicit funds through Bitzlato, a platform headquartered in Hong Kong.The charges related to operating the platform as an unlicensed money exchange business. Allegedly, he engaged in significant cryptocurrency swaps with Hydra Market, described as a marketplace involved in drugs, stolen financial information and money laundering services.United States Attorney for the Eastern District of New York, Breon Peace stated:“Legkodymov’s guilty plea today confirms that he was well aware that Bitzlato, his cryptocurrency exchange, was being used like an open turnstile by criminals eager to take advantage of his lax controls over illicit money transactions.”The Department of Justice maintained that Bitzlato becoming “a haven for criminal proceeds and funds intended for use in criminal activity” was as a result of its “deficient know-your-customer (KYC) procedures.”Website taken downBitzlato’s website has been replaced by a notice stating that the service was seized by French authorities as part of an international law enforcement action coordinated with U.S. and German law enforcement shutting down Hydra Market in April 2022.This guilty plea is the latest development in U.S. law enforcement’s broader efforts to crack down on fraud and illicit financial activities within the cryptocurrency markets. In recent cases, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted for stealing billions from customers, while Binance agreed to a $4.3 billion settlement, with CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) pleading guilty to violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws. Binance was identified as one of Bitzlato’s top counterparties by U.S. authorities.Russia calls for Legkodymov’s releaseDespite calls from Russia’s embassy in Washington for Legkodymov’s release and an embassy visit to him in jail, the U.S. State Department confirmed that Russia rejected a proposal for the release of two Americans, including Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. This follows Russia’s denial of a U.S. embassy request to visit Gershkovich. The diplomatic exchanges underscore the international dimension of the case and the geopolitical tensions surrounding the detention of individuals in both countries.As U.S. law enforcement continues its efforts to combat cryptocurrency-related crimes, the anticipated guilty plea of Bitzlato’s co-founder highlights the regulatory scrutiny and consequences faced by those involved in illicit financial activities within the crypto industry.

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Policy & Regulation·

Apr 07, 2023

Korean Crypto Exchange Group Installs Separate Division to Prevent Money Laundering

Korean Crypto Exchange Group Installs Separate Division to Prevent Money LaunderingThe Digital Asset Exchange Alliance (DAXA), a group of five major Korean crypto exchanges, announced yesterday that it has installed a division to prevent money laundering.©Pexels/Anna TarazevichAML division’s roleThe anti-money laundering (AML) division will devise suspicious transaction report types, create guidelines to assess risks at virtual asset service providers, and hold various seminars.With the new AML division installed, DAXA now has five divisions, the other four of which are responsible for trading support, market monitoring, compliance monitoring, and education.Improving listing and delisting guidelinesDAXA also plans to improve listing and delisting guidelines that exchanges can share.DAXA vice chairman Kim Jae-jin said long-term efforts are required to build a healthy virtual asset ecosystem, calling for exchanges’ stronger voluntary compliance.

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