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Japan’s rate hike looms over Bitcoin as institutional skepticism persists

Markets·December 15, 2025, 9:30 PM

Bitcoin is facing growing uncertainty as it trades near $90,000, down nearly 30% from its October peak of $126,000. While the cryptocurrency remains under pressure, investors are increasingly focused on Tokyo, where a potential change in monetary policy could tighten global liquidity.

 

According to CoinDesk, which cited a report from Nikkei, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, a move that would push borrowing costs to their highest level in nearly three decades. Historically, a stronger yen has often been associated with weaker Bitcoin performance amid tighter global liquidity.

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Yen carry trade in focus

The report suggested that higher rates could unwind the yen carry trade, a strategy in which investors borrow cheap yen to fund positions in higher-yielding assets such as stocks and U.S. Treasuries. A similar dynamic played out following the Japanese central bank’s July hike, which precipitated a market-wide selloff that dragged Bitcoin from roughly $65,000 down to $50,000.

 

However, CoinDesk noted that a recurrence of such volatility cannot be assumed. It added that speculative positioning is already skewed toward yen strength, while steadily rising Japanese bond yields suggest monetary policy is adjusting to prevailing market realities.

 

Institutional skepticism toward Bitcoin

Beyond the macroeconomic landscape, fundamental skepticism remains entrenched among traditional finance heavyweights. John Ameriks, Vanguard’s global head of quantitative equity, said at Bloomberg’s ETFs in Depth conference that the asset behaves more like a speculative digital collectible, comparable to a Labubu toy, than a conventional investment, citing its lack of income generation, compounding, and cash-flow characteristics.

 

Ameriks’ comments follow Vanguard’s move earlier this month to permit trading of select third-party crypto ETFs. He said the decision was based in part on the funds’ ability to establish a track record since their January 2024 launch. While acknowledging that Bitcoin could theoretically offer value during periods of high inflation or political instability, he maintained that its history remains too short to draw conclusions.

 

Bullish case for Bitcoin

A contrasting view was offered by Katherine Dowling, president of the Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company. Speaking with DL News, Dowling projected that Bitcoin would surge to $150,000 by the end of 2026. She pinned this bullish outlook on favorable U.S. regulatory shifts, increased liquidity from Federal Reserve rate cuts, and sustained institutional adoption via ETFs.


The perceived influence of institutional flows was also underscored by a recent weekly survey of 2,000 South Korean investors conducted by CoinNess and Cratos. The data showed that 42.3% of respondents view flows into and out of spot Bitcoin ETFs as the primary price driver. Monetary policies in major economies like the U.S. and Japan ranked second at 26.7%, while 16.3% pointed to shifts in equity markets. Another 11.5% attributed price action to the halving cycle, and 3.4% said they could identify no specific catalyst.

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Markets·

Nov 05, 2024

Asia emerges at the forefront of crypto development

Asia has taken the lead, surpassing North America, in terms of being a crypto developer hub according to a recent report. Electric Capital, a venture capital firm based in Silicon Valley in the United States, recently compiled a report centered upon global crypto developer data. Its analysis of the data has led to some interesting findings. Photo by Shubham Dhage on UnsplashNorth America loses its leadElectric Capital General Partner Maria Shen took to the X social media platform on Oct. 30 to provide further details on some key takeaways. In the first instance, Shen points out that North America has lost its lead in terms of crypto developer share, with Asia emerging as the leading region in this respect. Shen stated that “for the first time, Asia is the #1 continent for crypto talent.” Underpinning that claim, she provided data that identifies a drop in North America’s share of crypto developers from 44% in 2015 to 24% in 2024. Within the same timeframe, Asia’s share of crypto developer talent has increased from 13% to 32%. Teasing the data out further, the United States still remains the number one country for crypto devs on a country-by-country basis. It leads this particular metric with 18.8% of the developer talent pool, followed by India with 11.8% and the United Kingdom with 4.2%. A consequence of U.S. regulatory uncertaintyRegulatory uncertainty in the United States has been identified as a contributing factor by some crypto community commentators. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the U.S. has engaged in regulation by enforcement rather than establishing a bespoke regulatory framework for crypto.  This approach has led to SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda calling crypto regulation in the U.S. “a disaster” earlier this month. Others, like Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, have gone further, describing the approach of the Biden Administration to crypto as “Operation Choke Point 2.0,” suggesting that there is an active plan being implemented to suppress the industry. This negative approach has led many U.S.-headquartered crypto firms to pursue growth opportunities overseas, particularly within centers in Asia and the Middle East such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong and Singapore. All of these centers have taken the opposite approach, deliberately working towards putting purpose-made regulatory frameworks in place over the course of the past two years, in order to get crypto innovation started on the right footing. Shen underscored the issue from a U.S. perspective, by pointing out that 81% of crypto devs, who are actively playing their part in shaping the future of digital money, live outside the U.S. She highlighted the significance of this, stating: “This is a national security issue & innovation drain for the US.” In a subsequent post, she questioned whether this had come about due to a negative regulatory environment, adding that “the US needs clear crypto policy to maintain its country lead.” 

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Policy & Regulation·

May 08, 2023

BNP Paribas Partners With Chinese in Digital Yuan Push

BNP Paribas Partners With Chinese in Digital Yuan PushThe Chinese authorities continue with their sustained efforts to promote use of the digital yuan, on this occasion by hooking up with French international banking group, BNP Paribas.According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Friday, the partnership will see BNP Paribas collaborating with the Bank of China (BOC) to promote the digital yuan to its corporate clients. The digital yuan or e-CNY is a digital representation of the Chinese sovereign currency, issued by the BOC.Photo by Eric Prouzet on Unsplashe-CNY system accessAs part of the arrangement, BNP Paribas China will connect into the BOCs system, accessing an e-CNY management system. The BOC has authorized ten banks in China including the four state-owned banks, all of which are domestic lenders, to deal with its digital currency business.The direct e-CNY system access enables straight-through processing, allowing BNP Paribas to offer digital wallet functionality to its corporate clients relative to the digital yuan. Essentially, the system will allow BNP Paribas China’s corporate clients to link their bank accounts with an accompanying digital wallet. Other functionality that will be enabled as a consequence includes access to smart contract applications through the m-CBDC bridge (central bank digital currency).BNP Paribas China CEO CG Lai commented on the partnership: “While this collaboration can supplement the Bank’s offline payment collection capabilities and further optimize our clients’ account structure, this also reinforced the Bank’s commitment to the China market.” Lai outlined that the bank intends to enhance customer service capabilities by pursuing digital innovation that, like in this instance, contributes to China’s economic development.Louise Zhang, Head of BNP Paribas China Transaction Banking claimed that the partnership will “provide innovative, efficient cash management and trade financing services to local and multinational clients.”CBDC developmentThere has been a lot of activity in recent years when it comes to the development of CBDCs. The central banks of most nations have carried out some level of preparatory or investigative work relative to a digital currency. However, China has been by far the leader in its development of a CBDC.The BOC first began research into a digital currency in 2014. The country’s State Council approved the development of the digital yuan in partnership with China’s commercial banks in 2017. Beyond initial development, a testing phase began in 2019 with the project known as the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system emerging as the first version of the digital yuan after a number of years of development.In 2020, the BOC began more extensive testing of the digital currency in four Chinese cities — Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu and Xiong’an. To promote use of the currency at that time, they offered free digital yuan to residents of those cities to spend, in that way, stepping up efforts to popularize the digital currency.Last month, the administrators of the Chinese city of Xuzhou announced that it was in the process of publishing a pilot scheme which will set out a means for promoting China’s e-CNY digital currency. Also in April, the eastern city of Changshu clarified that it is gearing up to commence paying state employees in the city in e-CNY. According to an announcement made by the city’s finance bureau the civil servants will start to receive e-CNY as payment in May.

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Aug 04, 2023

HashKey Report Outlines Risks of Liquid Staking

HashKey Report Outlines Risks of Liquid StakingLiquid staking derivatives (LSD) are not without their potential pitfalls according to a report published by Hong Kong’s HashKey Capital.Photo by Shubham Dhage on UnsplashLiquid staking exceeds $22 billionThe report, which was published by the digital asset manager and finance house in July, emphasizes the pressing need for enhanced decentralization to counteract the risks associated with this growing trend of liquid staking.The figures themselves are impressive. This year, the total value locked in the liquid staking derivatives market has surged past the $22 billion mark. Correspondingly, the market capitalization of LSD projects has skyrocketed to $18 billion, indicating a substantial influx of interest and investment.However, the growth that these protocols are witnessing also presents a dual-edged conundrum for the Ethereum ecosystem. HashKey Capital’s report underscores that despite the advantages these protocols might offer their respective communities and token-holders, they could potentially destabilize the Ethereum ecosystem in multifaceted ways.Centralization riskAs evident in HashKey Capital’s overview, several LSD protocols heavily rely on a limited number of node operators, effectively centralizing a significant portion of validator nodes. This centralization trend, as highlighted by the report, is a cause for concern. The concentration of node operators raises red flags, as it contradicts the fundamental tenets of decentralization that underpin blockchain technology.The report articulates the adverse effects of centralization in the realm of liquid staking. It points to the dangers of reduced competition and a heightened risk of censorship.The report raises an important caution: “There is a heightened possibility of censorship with centralized staking players, as they may be subject to incentives or regulatory pressure to censor transactions. This can potentially result in a disruption of the trust within the network.”Security threatsCentralization also ushers in security threats. The dominance of major staking players makes the Ethereum ecosystem more susceptible to 51% attacks. Furthermore, the potential for collusion among centralized stakers looms large, leading to actions that counteract the very essence of decentralization, such as front running and malicious maximal extractable value (MEV) susceptibility.However, amidst these centralization risks, HashKey Capital acknowledges that most protocols are in their nascent stages. Many of them have devised strategies to incorporate distributed validator technology into their protocols, a proactive step towards fostering greater decentralization and resilience.HashKey Exchange awarded retail services licenseIn an unrelated development, HashKey Exchange received approval on Wednesday to upgrade type 1 and type 7 licenses, allowing it to cater to retail investors in Hong Kong. This accomplishment comes a mere two months after the city introduced its Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) licensing framework on June 1.In this evolving landscape, HashKey Capital and OSL were among the pioneer licensed exchanges under the city’s earlier voluntary program. Now, the new regulations stipulate that crypto trading platforms must obtain a license to serve retail investors, further solidifying Hong Kong’s commitment to cultivating a thriving crypto ecosystem.As the HashKey Capital report and recent developments in Hong Kong demonstrate, there’s a lot in play relative to both crypto regulation, protocol design and new product innovation. The challenges posed by centralization in liquid staking underscore the importance of vigilance and corrective action. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s aspirations to become a crypto stronghold offer a beacon of hope in an ever-evolving regulatory landscape.

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