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Japan’s rate hike looms over Bitcoin as institutional skepticism persists

Markets·December 15, 2025, 9:30 PM

Bitcoin is facing growing uncertainty as it trades near $90,000, down nearly 30% from its October peak of $126,000. While the cryptocurrency remains under pressure, investors are increasingly focused on Tokyo, where a potential change in monetary policy could tighten global liquidity.

 

According to CoinDesk, which cited a report from Nikkei, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, a move that would push borrowing costs to their highest level in nearly three decades. Historically, a stronger yen has often been associated with weaker Bitcoin performance amid tighter global liquidity.

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Yen carry trade in focus

The report suggested that higher rates could unwind the yen carry trade, a strategy in which investors borrow cheap yen to fund positions in higher-yielding assets such as stocks and U.S. Treasuries. A similar dynamic played out following the Japanese central bank’s July hike, which precipitated a market-wide selloff that dragged Bitcoin from roughly $65,000 down to $50,000.

 

However, CoinDesk noted that a recurrence of such volatility cannot be assumed. It added that speculative positioning is already skewed toward yen strength, while steadily rising Japanese bond yields suggest monetary policy is adjusting to prevailing market realities.

 

Institutional skepticism toward Bitcoin

Beyond the macroeconomic landscape, fundamental skepticism remains entrenched among traditional finance heavyweights. John Ameriks, Vanguard’s global head of quantitative equity, said at Bloomberg’s ETFs in Depth conference that the asset behaves more like a speculative digital collectible, comparable to a Labubu toy, than a conventional investment, citing its lack of income generation, compounding, and cash-flow characteristics.

 

Ameriks’ comments follow Vanguard’s move earlier this month to permit trading of select third-party crypto ETFs. He said the decision was based in part on the funds’ ability to establish a track record since their January 2024 launch. While acknowledging that Bitcoin could theoretically offer value during periods of high inflation or political instability, he maintained that its history remains too short to draw conclusions.

 

Bullish case for Bitcoin

A contrasting view was offered by Katherine Dowling, president of the Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company. Speaking with DL News, Dowling projected that Bitcoin would surge to $150,000 by the end of 2026. She pinned this bullish outlook on favorable U.S. regulatory shifts, increased liquidity from Federal Reserve rate cuts, and sustained institutional adoption via ETFs.


The perceived influence of institutional flows was also underscored by a recent weekly survey of 2,000 South Korean investors conducted by CoinNess and Cratos. The data showed that 42.3% of respondents view flows into and out of spot Bitcoin ETFs as the primary price driver. Monetary policies in major economies like the U.S. and Japan ranked second at 26.7%, while 16.3% pointed to shifts in equity markets. Another 11.5% attributed price action to the halving cycle, and 3.4% said they could identify no specific catalyst.

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Markets·

Oct 31, 2024

HKEX to launch digital asset index with real-time pricing within Asian time zone

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX), the operator of the Hong Kong stock exchange, has announced plans to launch a digital asset price index. The index which the company is marketing as the HKEX Virtual Asset Index Series, will aim to provide for the developing asset class, while complimenting Hong Kong’s overarching efforts to transform itself into a regional digital assets hub. The company announced details of the new product offering in a press release published to its website on Oct. 28. HKEX indicated that the product will go live on Nov. 15, outlining that the product “provides investors with transparent and reliable benchmarks for Bitcoin and Ether pricing in the Asian time zone.”Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashReference index for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH)The firm claims that the Index Series will include a Reference Index for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) while providing a Reference Rate for the two leading digital assets. The Reference Index will be formulated using a 24-hour volume-weighted reference spot price, with that pricing coming from leading virtual asset exchanges. The Reference Rate has been devised with the settlement of financial products in mind. As a result, it will be calculated on a daily basis at 16:00 Hong Kong time. From a compliance perspective, the product complies with the European Union’s (EU) Benchmark Regulation (BMR), being the first such product to be developed in Hong Kong. Additionally, the Index Series will be administered by CCData, a UK-headquartered data and index solutions firm formerly known as CryptoCompare.  Taking to the X social media platform, CCData outlined that the product is underpinned by its data selection process, leveraging its “Exchange Benchmark methodology to provide highly robust real-time and EOD  [end-of-day] reference rates.” The firm added that the offering will introduce “essential benchmarks for the Asian market,” while enhancing transparency and reliability within the digital assets sector, broadening opportunities for market participants across the region. Enabling informed investment decisionsHKEX CEO Bonnie Chan said that the company was pleased to introduce the HKEX Virtual Asset Index Series to meet the region's growing demand for this fast-emerging asset class. “By offering transparent and reliable real-time benchmarks, we seek to enable investors to make informed investment decisions,” she added.Like many other financial services firms in TradFi, HKEX has been getting itself acquainted with the blockchain and digital assets sector. In October of last year, the firm launched a blockchain-based settlement platform called Synapse. The platform relies upon DAML-based smart contracts. Earlier this year, a number of asset management firms launched spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the exchange. In April, a report published by HKEX suggested that the true potential of crypto ETFs had yet to be fully realized, pointing out that a number of regulatory tweaks would be necessary to better support digital asset-based products. HKEX itself could have a greater role to play in the expansion of the digital assets sector in Hong Kong. Last month Hong Kong Legislative Council member Lee Wai-hung called on the platform to expand its range of derivatives, including crypto derivatives.

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Policy & Regulation·

Aug 19, 2023

Singaporean Authorities Uncover $1.3M Crypto Mining Scam

Singaporean Authorities Uncover $1.3M Crypto Mining ScamFour foreign nationals are facing charges in a Singaporean court related to a cryptocurrency mining investment scheme that allegedly cheated investors out of over S$1.8 million ($1.3 million).According to reports in local media, the accused individuals are associated with A&A Blockchain Technology Innovation, a Singaporean company that was previously investigated for potential cheating offenses related to the very same crypto mining scheme in 2022. The accused include Dutch national Yang Bin, who was the Chairman of A&A Blockchain at the time of the offenses, and Lu Huangbin, Wang Xinghong, and Chen Wei, who held various roles within the company. Lu, Wang, and Chen are Chinese nationals.Photo by Arul Kumaran on UnsplashConspiracy to cheat chargesThe four individuals are collectively facing twelve counts of engaging in a conspiracy to cheat, involving the aforementioned sum of money. Additionally, they are charged with carrying out payment services without the required license.The charges are connected to a cryptocurrency mining investment scheme offered by A&A Blockchain between May 2021 and February 2022. The scheme promised investors a fixed daily return of 0.5 percent, luring them in by falsely claiming ownership of a large number of cryptocurrency mining machines.Unlicensed crypto exchangeDuring the period of August 2021 to February 2022, A&A Blockchain operated a cryptocurrency exchange named AAEX, facilitating the trading of multiple cryptocurrencies. However, the company operated without a proper license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) for providing payment services in the country.Under the Penal Code, those convicted of cheating offenses can face penalties that include fines, imprisonment for up to a decade, or both. The accused face a total of 12 cheating charges, out of which 10 are amalgamated charges. If convicted of an amalgamated charge, the punishment could be doubled for a single incident of the offense. Furthermore, engaging in payment services without the necessary license can lead to a jail term of up to three years, a fine reaching S$125,000 ($92,000), or both.The cases against Chen, Wang, and Yang have been adjourned until next month. Meanwhile, Lu’s pretrial conference is scheduled for a later date in September. The charges against these individuals come in the wake of a large-scale operation targeting anti-money laundering offenses within the city-state.The operation resulted in the arrest and charging of ten individuals suspected of forgery, money laundering, and resisting arrest. The group had reportedly amassed assets worth approximately S$1 billion ($736 million), residing in affluent properties and owning luxury vehicles.Good actorsThe nascent nature of crypto is being used as a cover for scammers and while those bad actors get a disproportionate level of coverage, there are plenty of good actors engaging positively with the innovation at hand.As an example of genuine efforts being made in crypto mining, Beijing-based Canaan, a leading mining equipment manufacturer, intends to hold an event in Singapore next month to celebrate ten years in the business. Singapore is also home to well-known crypto miner, Bitdeer, a company with significant mining operations in North America, Bhutan, Norway, and elsewhere.As the industry matures and makes a better fist at self-regulation, in tandem with ever-improving regulations and controls at a national level, scammers using crypto-related activities as a foil for their criminal enterprise will be forced out of the sector.

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Policy & Regulation·

May 21, 2023

Pakistan Implements Ban on Cryptocurrency

Pakistan Implements Ban on CryptocurrencyPakistan has moved to ban cryptocurrency once more, with the country’s Minister of State for Finance and Revenue, Aisha Ghaus Pasha disclosing the move last week.According to multiple local media reports within Pakistan, on May 16 Ghaus Pasha stated at a session of the Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Revenue, that cryptocurrencies are banned and “will never be legalized in Pakistan.”Photo by Hamid Roshaan on UnsplashFATF Grey ListGhaus Pasha supported this position by outlining that the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) had set the banning of crypto as a condition for Pakistan’s removal from its “Grey List.”FATF is an initiative of the G7 group of countries, first established in 1989. Its mandate is to develop policies geared towards combating money laundering, and most especially, terrorist financing. The FATF grey list includes those jurisdictions who are deemed to require increased monitoring relative to their efforts to keep money laundering and terrorist financing to an absolute minimum.Pakistan had found itself on the FATF grey list over the course of a number of years. That meant reputational damage on an international basis, together with loss of investor confidence. It also signals the likelihood of weaknesses in a country’s financial system and in its financial controls. The categorization would have had an impact on the country’s ability to access international finance, impacted trade relations, and involved increased compliance costs.Against that background, there may be a certain logic to the Finance Minister’s stance, despite it naturally being distasteful to those of us that support the development of decentralized systems, blockchain, and cryptocurrency. After an extended period on that Grey List, Pakistan was only removed from it in October of last year.Currency devaluationNotwithstanding that, governments in the developing world may have added incentives in banning cryptocurrencies. Their currencies are oftentimes unstable, and the Pakistani rupee is no exception. Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin find their greatest use case in countries that have their currencies devalued or economies that fall into the trap of hyperinflation relative to the sovereign currency.In Pakistan’s case, the rupee plummeted to a record low against the US dollar in January. Naturally, that hurts ordinary citizens and provides the conditions under which people are more likely to investigate decentralized cryptocurrencies. On that basis, we shouldn’t be surprised to learn that the Pakistani government’s decision to ban crypto was publicly supported by Sohail Jawad, Director of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).Pakistani banks are naturally following the government and the central bank’s lead, in implementing the ban. One circular obtained by CoinDesk stated: “As per regulatory instructions from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), any remittance of foreign exchange directly/indirectly outside Pakistan to overseas foreign exchange trading, margin trading, and CFD trading apps/websites/platforms through any payment channel is not allowed/permitted by SBP and such payments are inherently risky and illegal.”Community reactionNaturally enough, the crypto community internationally and locally, is not enamored by the move. However, people who have been in the space over the last few years are accustomed to ever-changing stances taken by governments as a reaction to a technology that they simply don’t know how to deal with.Waqar Zaka, a Pakistani who works within the Web3 space commented previously on a ban that was implemented in Pakistan in 2017, only later to be found to be unconstitutional. Another Pakistani community member took to Twitter in taking a stand against the decision. Others still immediately considered how they could circumvent the ban.Crypto has always benefited from jurisdictional arbitrage, and while bans are not in any way helpful, in the longer run, they will never stop the roll out and further development of this innovation.

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