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Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

Hong Kong–listed companies are stepping up digital-asset bets as the city sets out a clearer rulebook, a sign that tighter oversight and new market rails are starting to unlock institutional demand.Photo by Ruslan Bardash on UnsplashCorporate moves signal rising appetiteBoyaa Interactive International has been adding Bitcoin (BTC) to its treasury, with the latest acquisition of 411 BTC bringing its total holdings to 4,091 BTC. The gaming company has said it will direct 90% of a planned $56.3 million rights issue into Bitcoin. Yunfeng Financial raised HKD 1.17 billion, or about $150 million, through a new share issuance and plans to use part of the proceeds to launch cryptocurrency trading and investment management services. The firm is associated with Yunfeng Capital, which was co-founded by Alibaba founder Jack Ma, and has previously outlined plans to accumulate BTC, Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). These moves land alongside a policy reset from the top. In his annual address on Sept. 17, Chief Executive John Lee reaffirmed Hong Kong’s goal of cementing its position as an international hub in finance, including digital assets, while pairing that ambition with stronger investor safeguards. Tokenization and blockchain testbedThe centerpiece is Project Ensemble, run by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). The initiative is building infrastructure for a tokenized market and operates a sandbox where institutions can test blockchain systems in live business settings. Priorities include tokenized bank deposits, settlement of tokenized assets such as money market funds, and standardized issuance of government tokenized bonds. Regulation is advancing in parallel. The government is preparing legislation for a licensing regime that covers stablecoin issuers as well as digital-asset dealing and custody providers. The Securities and Futures Commission is studying an expansion of products for professional investors, with tougher protections baked in. The regulator plans to use automated reporting and data surveillance to curb misconduct. Authorities also intend to deepen cross-border cooperation to combat tax evasion. Banking rules are set to shift as well. The HKMA has circulated draft guidance that would ease capital requirements for certain crypto exposures in line with Basel standards through a new policy module called CRP-1. Under the proposal, assets issued on permissionless blockchains could qualify for lower capital charges when issuers demonstrate effective risk management. Hong Kong aims to implement the international rules by early 2026.Publicly traded BTC treasury firms in China Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NETAdoption amid constraintsNot every institution will join the build-out. Mainland policies may constrain participation, according to Caixin. Chinese digital platforms, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and financial entities operating in Hong Kong could face limits on stablecoin and other crypto activity. Branches of several SOEs and Chinese banks are also unlikely to seek a Hong Kong stablecoin license. Corporate adoption remains broad despite those headwinds. Publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies in China and Hong Kong hold a combined 19,280 BTC, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net. Several appear among the top 50 public corporate holders worldwide, including Next Technology Holding (16th), Cango (18th), Boyaa (24th), Nano Labs (48th), and Ming Shing Group (50th). The tally points to rising regional interest in digital assets. Publicly traded BTC treasury firms in Hong Kong Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

Singaporean Regulator Proposes Framework for Digital Money UseThe Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has released a White Paper that outlines proposed standards for the use of digital assets. The aim is to establish a common protocol and conditions for the utilization of these assets.While the paper identifies the potential digital assets bring in streamlining transactions and promoting financial inclusion, it also outlines challenges that need to be addressed before digital money can be successfully implemented.Photo by Pixabay on PexelsPurpose Bound Money (PBM)MAS’s White Paper, which was published on Wednesday, provides requirements to protect the use of digital assets as a medium of exchange and offers a technical overview of Purpose Bound Money (PBM). PBM allows the sender of digital money to specify certain conditions such as validity periods or how the money can be spent.The covered digital monies include central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), tokenized bank deposits, and potentially well-regulated stablecoins, excluding digital assets that it considers volatile such as Bitcoin. These digital monies are generally pegged to real-world currencies, commodities, or financial institutions, making them more stable.MAS highlights that PBMs utilize a common protocol compatible with different ledger technologies and forms of money. This protocol enables money to be directed toward a specific purpose without requiring the money itself to be programmed. It functions as a secure two-layered delivery vehicle, with funds held as collateral in a “wrapper” until specific conditions are met for its release.Standardized formatThe standardized format outlined in the White Paper will allow users to access digital money using their preferred wallet provider. By establishing these standards, the prospects for digital money to become a significant component of the future financial and payments landscape are enhanced. Standardization and regulated use of PBMs can unlock economic value, facilitate efficient and inclusive digital transactions, and provide additional consumer protection.One notable application of PBMs is in protecting online payments, such as e-commerce transactions and prepaid packages. With PBMs, advance payments can be securely held until the service is fulfilled, ensuring that the product or service is delivered before funds are released. This benefits both consumers and merchants, assuring consumers of product delivery and allowing merchants to verify payment before delivering.PBMs can also aid businesses in mitigating risks associated with international trade transactions, ensuring secure and efficient payments while reducing the potential for fraud or non-payment.InteroperabilityTo ensure the safety and usability of digital monies, MAS highlights considerations that will impact PBM implementation. Interoperability across different platforms is crucial to avoid fragmentation and excessive fees. The choice of underlying digital currencies also affects usability and value, with CBDCs, tokenized bank liabilities, and stablecoins offering varying levels of guarantees and regulatory oversight. Additionally, privacy, digital readiness, and the impact on users need to be carefully assessed.MAS acknowledges that the regulatory landscape for digital monies is still evolving globally, which may lead to varying regulatory treatment of PBMs across jurisdictions. It believes that policy considerations should be thought through when designing PBM-based solutions, including decisions regarding issuance, distribution, and conditions for use.