Thailand’s SEC considers Bitcoin ETF approval

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

The crypto space continues to suffer a disproportionate share of hacks and scams that were further exacerbated on Wednesday, with Malaysian crypto data aggregator the latest to succumb to a security breach. Serving as yet another stark reminder of the persistent threats plaguing the sector, a phishing scam targeted CoinGecko's X account, leading to a brief compromise that raised concerns about the safety of user information.Photo by GuerrillaBuzz on UnsplashPhishing scamDuring this incident, hackers posted a phishing link on CoinGecko's X account, falsely advertising a token airdrop for a cryptocurrency named GCKO. The deceptive post claimed that GCKO could be used for API services, including the cryptocurrency ANKR. Swift action by CoinGecko involved the removal of the fraudulent post and a public warning urging users to avoid interacting with any suspicious links or content. In an X post, CoinGecko wrote:”Our Twitter accounts @CoinGecko and @GeckoTerminal have been compromised. We're taking immediate steps to investigate the situation and secure our accounts. Please DO NOT click on any links or engage with suspicious content. Your security is our top priority.” Employee errorThe firm followed up with an update on Thursday, attributing the breach to a team member inadvertently clicking on a fraudulent Calendly link, granting unauthorized access to the hacker. Despite having two-factor authentication (2FA) enabled and employing robust security measures, CoinGecko emphasized that the inadvertent click allowed unauthorized access. The compromised accounts were then exploited to disseminate misleading information and potentially engage in malicious activities. CoinGecko expressed sincere apologies for any confusion or inconvenience caused by the incident. The company reiterated its commitment to platform security and continuous improvement of internal controls, assuring users that corrective measures were promptly implemented. SEC incompetenceCoinGecko's security incident occurred within 24 hours of a similar occurrence involving the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC's X account was compromised, with scammers posting a false message from Chair Gary Gensler about the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While CoinGecko identified a vulnerability in its security regimen, the SEC later confirmed that the breach in its case was far more basic. It was not due to infrastructure attacks but rather the lack of 2-factor authentication (2FA) tied to the SEC's account, the most basic form of operations security. Gensler and the SEC have come in for major criticism from the crypto community in the U.S. due to a policy of regulation by enforcement that has been pursued. With that, the Commission came in for swift and harsh criticism in the immediate aftermath of its X account hack. Many pointed out the irony of Gensler advising consumers to secure their accounts back in October when the SEC itself had failed to do so. Others queried who would be responsible for what some interpreted as an episode of market manipulation, something that the SEC has perennially associated the crypto markets with. During the time that the account was compromised, millions of dollars of value were liquidated in short and long trading positions. CoinGecko's quick response serves as a valuable lesson in the importance of vigilance and proactive security measures amid the growing threats facing the cryptocurrency community.

The Asia Web3 Alliance Japan, an agency that regards itself as a bridge between the Web3 ecosystem in Asia and Japan’s broader business sector, has reached out to the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States with a view towards establishing a strategic collaboration.Photo by Clement Souchet on UnsplashFocus on Web3 regulatory innovation & tokenizationThe President of the organization, Hinza Asif, wrote to SEC Crypto Task Force Chairperson and SEC Commissioner, Hester Peirce, on the subject, on March 25. The letter, subsequently published by the SEC, sets out a proposal that centers on a strategic U.S.-Japan partnership relative to Web3 regulatory innovation and tokenization. The Japanese agency, which has set out cross-border synergy as one of its objectives, calls for collaboration between Japan’s Financial Services Agency, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Bank of Japan with the U.S. regulator. The Alliance proposes that the goal of that partnership would be the establishment of regulatory clarity in respect of the Web3 sector, together with the fostering of interoperability between a developing Web3 ecosystem in the U.S. and the one that’s developing in Japan. Token classification frameworkDelving deeper into proposal specifics, Asif sets out the formation of a harmonized token classification framework as a key objective. The proposal suggests that a distinction needs to be made between tokenized securities, utility tokens and non-security digital assets.  The alliance believes that right now, token classification is unclear, with projects struggling to understand what category their token falls within from a regulatory perspective. There’s a lack of token offering frameworks. While it sees that further work is required, the Asia Web3 Alliance Japan is encouraged by progress made by the SEC’s Crypto Task Force in identifying security categories. With this cross-border collaboration, the Japanese crypto advocacy group believes that there is an opportunity to achieve regulatory interoperability on an international basis. That would facilitate compliant cross-border token issuance. On that basis, the alliance suggests that standards be developed such that regulatory consistency is achieved internationally when it comes to items such as digital asset trading, custody and token issuance. The proposal sets out a need for reciprocal disclosure requirements between the two jurisdictions where cross-border token issuance is concerned. It advocates for mutual recognition of what it terms “compliant tokenized offerings.” Bringing safe harbor to JapanAnother focus area contained within the proposal is the suggestion of a need to implement a safe harbor approach in Japan for early-stage token projects in line with what has been put forward in the U.S. Peirce first put forward a token safe harbor proposal in the U.S. in 2020. It sets out to provide exemptions over a defined initial period for certain token issuances. The idea behind it is to enable these early-stage projects to innovate and mature without getting bogged down in a regulatory quagmire. The establishment of a U.S.-Japan Web3 regulatory roundtable is another strand contained within the proposal. This would provide a mechanism for ongoing dialogue between stakeholders such as regulators, industry leaders and legal experts.