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Positive market sentiment ahead of Bitcoin halving

Markets·February 07, 2024, 2:23 AM

Seychelles-incorporated crypto exchange platform Bitget recently released findings from a study on Bitcoin's upcoming halving, revealing that the vast majority of surveyed investors predict bitcoin will achieve a new all-time high (ATH) in 2024. Separately, other market commentators and analysts appear to be bullish on bitcoin ahead of the scheduled cut in Bitcoin mining rewards.

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84% anticipate new bitcoin ATH

The study, based on anonymized data from 9,748 participants worldwide, focused on investor perceptions surrounding the halving's impact on their investment decisions.

 

84% of participants anticipate a new ATH for bitcoin during the next bull run, with only East Europe showing a percentage lower than 80%. Over 50% predict bitcoin's price to be between $30,000 and $60,000 by the time the halving occurs in April. Meanwhile, 30% foresee the bitcoin unit price going higher than $60,000.

 

Off the back of the data that has arisen via the study, Bitget managing director Gracy Chen suggested that it is indicative that 2024 will be a significant year for the bitcoin market.

 

Crypto investment plans

Approximately 70% express plans to increase their crypto investments, with the highest conviction in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and East Europe regions. Western European investors are characterized as "short-term cautious" and "long-term optimistic."

 

In addition to the Bitget study, many market commentators appear to have arrived at a similar conclusion. In July of last year, Standard Chartered Bank forecasted a 2024 unit price for bitcoin of $120,000. The bank reaffirmed that view last month, going further still in stating that by 2025, it expected bitcoin to reach a price of $200,000, largely due to capital inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were approved in the United States in January.

 

Broader market sentiment

Taking to social media on Monday, crypto analyst Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments proposed a potential 500% price return for bitcoin if a bullish halving pattern plays out. Edwards envisions bitcoin reaching $280,000 in 2025. Like Standard Chartered, he cites the January bitcoin ETF launch as the driving force, likening it to a "second halving." He argues that major technological developments have historically seen quicker rates of adoption.

 

Crypto trading analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts a pre-halving surge to $48,000 and an eventual breakout toward an all-time high in Q3/Q4 of 2024. The next Bitcoin halving is expected in April 2024, historically associated with increased scarcity and subsequent price surges.

 

Pseudonymous macroeconomist @Micro2Macr0 took to the X social media platform on Monday, stating:

"Only 2.5 months till the #Bitcoin #Halving. The world is getting more unstable and you have the greatest hedge ever invented sitting in front of you. What are you waiting for?" 

 

Meanwhile, "British HODL" warned that recent developments may result in a break from previous trading patterns. He stated:

"Everyone says 12 months after the halving the shock starts for #Bitcoin price. . . . I think there is a high likelihood that the ETF’s change the cycle you’re expecting. Be aware of that.”

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Policy & Regulation·

Jan 14, 2025

Indian Railways to issue NFT train tickets for world’s largest religious festival

Indian Railways (IR), the state-owned manager of India’s railway network, plans to issue non-fungible token (NFT)-based train tickets to transport pilgrims to Maha Kumbh Mela, the world’s largest religious festival. The Hindu festival is of particular significance given that it only occurs once every 144 years. ChainCode Consulting partnership According to a report published by Indian news outlet Pune.news on Jan. 13, IR has collaborated with ChainCode Consulting, a Bangalore-headquartered enterprise blockchain development and consulting firm, to provide the digital tickets. The Polygon blockchain has been chosen as the network upon which the NFT tickets will be minted. The tickets will then be made available to end users via NFTtrace, a real-world assets (RWA) tokenization and traceability platform run by ChainCode Consulting.Photo by Choong Deng Xiang on UnsplashLong-running collaborationService users and railway personnel will be free to check the validity of tickets on the public blockchain. This announcement is just the latest installment of a long-running collaboration between ChainCode Consulting and IR. In March 2024, a similar project was pursued by both parties. On that occasion, the collaboration involved the release of a series of NFT tickets for use on a train line running from Lucknow, the capital of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, to the Indian capital, New Delhi.  In that instance, NFTs were minted on the Hyperledger blockchain. A previous collaboration, earlier in 2024, saw NFTs minted on Polygon for digital tickets covering journeys to the sacred Hindu city of Ayodhya. Commenting on the choice of Polygon relative to this latest collaboration, Alok Gupta, CEO of ChainCode Consulting, stated: “By partnering with IRCTC and leveraging the Polygon blockchain, we are enabling a digital-first experience that complements the spiritual and traditional significance of the Mahakumbh while introducing a new level of engagement through NFTs.” Polygon is an Ethereum ecosystem scaling network. With that, it has fast throughput and low gas fees and it's on this basis that it’s understood that Polygon was chosen in this instance. Aishwary Gupta, global head of payment and fintech at Polygon Labs, the key developer behind the Polygon blockchain, told Cointelegraph that public blockchains are playing an important role in doing away with middlemen and intermediaries.  The Polygon Labs executive stated that at both state and central government levels in India, Polygon has been used on a number of projects. He added: ”With its low cost and high throughput, we are sure that the NFTs being issued around Maha Kumbh Mela would be yet another great success.” $94 billion market opportunityTicketing remains one of the proposed use cases for blockchain technology that has the potential to gain traction. That potential hasn’t gone unnoticed by ticketing industry leader Ticketmaster. In 2023 the company rolled out token-gated ticket sales. The feature enables artists to reward fans who hold NFTs with access to exclusive pre-sale events, prime concert seating and many other incentives and rewards. NFT technology offers a solution to a number of issues experienced within the events industry, including ticket scalping, fake tickets and security issues. The live events business is a $94 billion industry, underscoring the opportunity available to be exploited by innovative NFT-based ticketing startups. 

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Policy & Regulation·

Dec 19, 2023

Kazakhstan sets sights on 2024 expansion amid CBDC pilot success

Kazakhstan sets sights on 2024 expansion amid CBDC pilot successKazakhstan’s central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital tenge, has completed a one-month pilot project, paving the way for significant advancements in business, regulation and technology in 2024.Photo by Nessi Gileva on UnsplashReal-world use through Onay cardThe National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) established the National Payment Corporation (NPK) in September. NPK is a dedicated entity that’s responsible for spearheading the launch and development of the digital tenge.At that time, the CBDC pilot phase had advanced to controlled environment use. Global exchange Binance has been actively involved with the project. It supported the pilot by way of its BNB Chain.During the pilot phase, the digital tenge played a pivotal role in providing free school lunches to children in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city. The initiative utilized the local Onay card, initially designed for the transit system and transactions were facilitated by Kazpost, the Kazakh postal system operator.Local banking partnersNPC Chairman Binur Zhalenov became the first person to transact using the digital tenge in November. At the time, it was revealed that Eurasian Bank was one of the local banking participants on the project.Eurasian collaborated with Visa and Mastercard, alongside three other local banks, distributing plastic cards to focus group members. These cards empowered users to make both in-person and online purchases, with the added functionality of cash withdrawals from ATMs.Participating merchants were given the flexibility to accept digital tenge directly or convert them into “non-cash” tenge. The converted funds seamlessly integrated into existing point-of-sale (POS) and QR systems, demonstrating interoperability within and outside Kazakhstan.The success extended beyond local transactions, with further experiments involving cross-border payments via SWIFT, issuance of CBDC-backed stablecoins on platforms like Binance and the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, tokenization of gold, value-added tax collection through smart contracts and the trial of a “move-to-earn” app.New objectivesWith an eye on the upcoming year, the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the National Payment Corporation (NPC) have set ambitious objectives. Plans include expanding the network of intermediary banks and advancing decentralized finance applications. A primary focus is on enabling offline transactions on a large scale to enhance financial inclusion in regions with limited internet connectivity.Anticipated developments also include increased participation in cross-border payment projects, such as Project mBridge, an experimental multi-CBDC platform being coordinated and developed by the central bank of central banks, the Bank for International Settlements. Regulatory and legislative goals are on the agenda, alongside efforts to enhance the security and processing speed of the digital tenge.While addressing privacy concerns, Zhalenov emphasized in interviews that the digital tenge will not be utilized for user surveillance. Previously, Zhalenov has also alluded to the versatility of the digital tenge due to its programmable nature, citing smart contracts in particular as having great potential.The successful pilot project and the ambitious plans for 2024 position Kazakhstan’s digital tenge as a promising development in the realm of CBDCs, showcasing the central Asian nation’s positive approach to innovation and financial inclusivity.

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Policy & Regulation·

May 21, 2023

Pakistan Implements Ban on Cryptocurrency

Pakistan Implements Ban on CryptocurrencyPakistan has moved to ban cryptocurrency once more, with the country’s Minister of State for Finance and Revenue, Aisha Ghaus Pasha disclosing the move last week.According to multiple local media reports within Pakistan, on May 16 Ghaus Pasha stated at a session of the Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Revenue, that cryptocurrencies are banned and “will never be legalized in Pakistan.”Photo by Hamid Roshaan on UnsplashFATF Grey ListGhaus Pasha supported this position by outlining that the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) had set the banning of crypto as a condition for Pakistan’s removal from its “Grey List.”FATF is an initiative of the G7 group of countries, first established in 1989. Its mandate is to develop policies geared towards combating money laundering, and most especially, terrorist financing. The FATF grey list includes those jurisdictions who are deemed to require increased monitoring relative to their efforts to keep money laundering and terrorist financing to an absolute minimum.Pakistan had found itself on the FATF grey list over the course of a number of years. That meant reputational damage on an international basis, together with loss of investor confidence. It also signals the likelihood of weaknesses in a country’s financial system and in its financial controls. The categorization would have had an impact on the country’s ability to access international finance, impacted trade relations, and involved increased compliance costs.Against that background, there may be a certain logic to the Finance Minister’s stance, despite it naturally being distasteful to those of us that support the development of decentralized systems, blockchain, and cryptocurrency. After an extended period on that Grey List, Pakistan was only removed from it in October of last year.Currency devaluationNotwithstanding that, governments in the developing world may have added incentives in banning cryptocurrencies. Their currencies are oftentimes unstable, and the Pakistani rupee is no exception. Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin find their greatest use case in countries that have their currencies devalued or economies that fall into the trap of hyperinflation relative to the sovereign currency.In Pakistan’s case, the rupee plummeted to a record low against the US dollar in January. Naturally, that hurts ordinary citizens and provides the conditions under which people are more likely to investigate decentralized cryptocurrencies. On that basis, we shouldn’t be surprised to learn that the Pakistani government’s decision to ban crypto was publicly supported by Sohail Jawad, Director of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).Pakistani banks are naturally following the government and the central bank’s lead, in implementing the ban. One circular obtained by CoinDesk stated: “As per regulatory instructions from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), any remittance of foreign exchange directly/indirectly outside Pakistan to overseas foreign exchange trading, margin trading, and CFD trading apps/websites/platforms through any payment channel is not allowed/permitted by SBP and such payments are inherently risky and illegal.”Community reactionNaturally enough, the crypto community internationally and locally, is not enamored by the move. However, people who have been in the space over the last few years are accustomed to ever-changing stances taken by governments as a reaction to a technology that they simply don’t know how to deal with.Waqar Zaka, a Pakistani who works within the Web3 space commented previously on a ban that was implemented in Pakistan in 2017, only later to be found to be unconstitutional. Another Pakistani community member took to Twitter in taking a stand against the decision. Others still immediately considered how they could circumvent the ban.Crypto has always benefited from jurisdictional arbitrage, and while bans are not in any way helpful, in the longer run, they will never stop the roll out and further development of this innovation.

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