South Korea and OECD hold roundtable on ASEAN digital finance

NVT Ratio Signals Overvalued BTCThe network value to transaction (NVT) ratio of Bitcoin, which has been staying at a high level since the beginning of the year, has signaled its overvaluation, according to Yonhap Infomax.However, some argue that this will not necessarily lead to a crypto winter, considering that the nature of Bitcoin as an asset has changed and there is no sign of overheating in other indicators.©Pexels/PixabayPrice and NVT ratio correlationYonhap Infomax found out that the correlation between the NVT ratio and the price of Bitcoin over the past six years is -0.35. A value of 1 represents a completely positive correlation, while a value of -1 represents a completely negative correlation.Extending this period to 2010 makes the correlation close to 0, but during the early years, NVT ratios showed high volatility, shooting up to four digits. Such a high volatility doesn’t suggest much correlation. Until 2021, there was a high correlation of up to -0.44.The NVT ratio is calculated by dividing the market cap by the transacted volume. Conceptually, it is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio for the stock market.In 2017, when the crypto market was bullish, the average Bitcoin NVT ratio was 7.3. This number became 8.7 in 2021 when the market experienced a similar pattern. In retrospect, single-digit NVT ratios usually hint at bullish markets.This year so far, Bitcoin has been relatively overvalued, given that the average NVT ratio is 23.6.BTC price recoveryWhen the crypto market sentiment lost its confidence due to the FTX bankruptcy last year, the price of Bitcoin went down to $15,000. It later recovered to the near $30,000 level. The Bitcoin price once had reached an all-time high in 2021, surpassing $65,000.The years that manifested similar patterns as this year were 2018 and 2019. In those years, the Bitcoin NVT ratio plateaued around 20.Uncertain outlookThe NVT ratio itself could point to a possible crypto winter, but researchers say it’s hard to say.Jang Kyung-pil, a research analyst at crypto data platform Xangle, said that people now consider Bitcoin as a store of value rather than a means of transactions, pointing out that BTC’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has hit the bottom at 0.84 and now reached 1.4. According to Jang, MVRV values under 1 indicate undervaluation and those above 3 indicate overvaluation.Jung Seok-moon, head of the research center at crypto exchange Korbit, said that the current NVT ratio signals BTC overvaluation. He added that the Fed is likely to turn dovish in its monetary policy, which would prompt a strong BTC uptrend.

MaskEX Gets Initial Regulatory Approval in UAEThe online cryptocurrency trading platform and wallet provider, MaskEX has been given initial regulatory approval by a regulator in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).Photo by Carlos Alberto Gómez Iñiguez on UnsplashThe trading platform received outline approval from the Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) in Dubai, where the company is headquartered. While the business has been around since 2021, this first compliance step is significant as it seeks to build and extend its footprint within the UAE and the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.Regulatory significanceTo say that regulation has lagged the development of crypto assets on a global basis is an understatement. However, the high profile and spectacular crypto business failures in 2022 have really captured the attention of regulators and lawmakers. Many point to inadequate regulation as a key cause of those failures. With that, most regulators recognize that it won’t be acceptable to the broader public to have such a loss impact on ordinary investors in a rerun of the collapses of 2022.VARA has been one of the most proactive regulators in that respect. The Authority has developed a regulatory framework, culminating in its current licensing regimen for crypto businesses. It wouldn’t have been feasible for MaskEX to trade without obtaining regulatory approval.Regulatory actionIn February, VARA issued Open Exchange (OPNX), a platform that specializes in the trading of crypto bankruptcy claims, with a cease and desist order, relative to the establishment of that business in Dubai. Last month, the Regulatory Authority issued an investor alert related to OPNX, warning the investing public that OPNX was not regulated by them and that investing in or using the platform was risky.That culminated with VARA sending OPNXs founders and CEO a formal warning letter. With that sort of action playing out, it’s no surprise that MaskEX has tried to go the compliant route, acquiring that initial approval.The firm is not alone in taking that approach. On May 1, BitOasis, another crypto trading platform headquartered in Dubai, became the first entity to be awarded a broker-dealer license.This milestone event for MaskEX means that it can now complete entity formation, expand its team, secure banking services and generally, open for business. In its application MaskEX requested permission to engage in the activity of acting as an exchange, offer borrowing and lending services, as well as to act as a broker and crypto asset manager.Crypto market to be driven by ME and Central AsiaOn social media on Thursday, MaskEXs VP and Chief Strategy Officer (CSO) Ben Caselin, said that the initial approval forms part of the firm’s application for a Full Market Product (FMP) license. Caselin used the opportunity to post a video offering a sneak peek at the firm’s new Dubai offices. “MaskEX will be the first crypto exchange to publicly disclose their headquarters and even allow the general public to visit,” he said.Speaking at Finoverse Arabia this week, Caselin also said that “the next crypto bull market is once again going to be driven by Asia, and the unsurprising surprise will come from the Middle East and Central Asia.” That’s a prediction that’s being floated by quite a number of industry commentators, and with the US shooting itself in the foot in its approach to digital assets, it sounds like a reasonable prediction.

Research Finds Over 90% of Korean Cryptos Prone to Pump-and-Dump SchemesThe Korea Institute of Finance (KIF) has released a report revealing that 91.3% of South Korean-issued cryptocurrencies, known as “kimchi coins,” are prone to pump-and-dump (P&D) schemes. These schemes involve intentionally spreading false information on social media platforms to manipulate token prices. This is done with the intention of selling the tokens at artificially inflated prices.Photo by Maxim Hopman on UnsplashP&D prevalenceThese manipulative practices were frequently observed during the rapid growth of the cryptocurrency market from 2020 to 2022. Previous research papers indicate that P&D schemes commonly occur on multiple crypto exchanges and typically unfold within a time frame of 10 minutes. It has been observed that cryptocurrencies with lower liquidity and smaller market capitalization are particularly vulnerable to becoming prime targets for these schemes.Korean market and global marketThe Korean cryptocurrency market stands out with its significant number of cryptocurrencies listed on a single exchange, including kimchi coins. This distinction becomes evident when comparing it to the global market. In the Korean market, the top 10 global cryptocurrencies, ranked by their market capitalization, account for 59% of the total market share. Meanwhile, in the global market, they represent 84.9%. This contrast indicates that the Korean market has a larger proportion of alternative coins, also known as altcoins, which are more susceptible to pump-and-dump schemes and other manipulative activities.According to a survey conducted by the Financial Services Commission in the second half of 2022, there were a total of 625 listed coins (excluding duplicate listings), with 389 (62.24%) of them being listed on a single exchange. Among these single-exchange listed cryptos, 223 were kimchi coins, which is equivalent to 57%.OHLCV data analysisIn this KIF paper, research analyst Baik Yeon-ju delved into abnormal price patterns within the Korean cryptocurrency market. She analyzed the hourly Open-High-Low-Close-Volume (OHLCV) data of kimchi coins in October 2021. The study revealed that out of a total of 16,560 hourly price and volume observations, approximately 4.7% exhibited characteristics consistent with P&D schemes. Baik noted that 91.3% (21 of the 23) observed kimchi coins witnessed such movements.Legislative effortsMeanwhile, it is encouraging that the South Korean National Assembly passed the Virtual Asset User Protection Bill during its plenary session on June 30. This legislation, set to go effective in July next year, aims to provide protection for customers’ assets in the virtual asset space. The act not only establishes regulations to combat unfair trading practices but also enforces penalties for non-compliance.Call for further measuresHowever, Baik suggested that policies should be further strengthened to enhance investor protection within the crypto market. In order to achieve this, she proposed the implementation of a monitoring system for virtual asset service operators (VASPs) and the allocation of inspection and investigation personnel, as well as technical resources. It is also necessary to address potential conflicts that may arise with the Act on Real Name Financial Transactions and Confidentiality, particularly if the data required from VASPs falls under the classification of financial transaction information and personal information.Furthermore, considering the lack of transparency surrounding many altcoins regarding their projects and exchange listings, Baik suggests that the upcoming second virtual asset bill should tackle this issue by regulating the issuance and disclosure of these cryptocurrencies. Additionally, she highlighted the importance of conducting research based on empirical data to detect abnormal transactions. This approach enables the recognition of existing issues and the acquisition of concrete evidence, which serves as a credible basis for policymakers to enact relevant legislation.