Dubai regulator takes action against unlicensed crypto firms

As Hong Kong approaches the culmination of the Securities and Futures Commission's (SFC) deadline for cryptocurrency exchanges to seek licenses, the regulator issued a reminder to investors about the potential risks associated with trading on unlicensed platforms.Photo by Jarrod Erbe on UnsplashUrging cautionIn a notice released on Monday, the SFC emphasized the importance of engaging exclusively with SFC-licensed virtual asset trading platforms (VATPs) to ensure investor protection. With only one month remaining for exchanges to apply for a license under the city's virtual asset regulation, the SFC urged investors to exercise caution when dealing with platforms that have not yet received approval.The SFC suggested that investors check the list of regulated platforms, which it maintains on its website. Within the notice, the regulator outlined that in the past, some platforms have claimed to be regulated entities when they were not compliant platforms and not adhering to existing regulations within the Chinese autonomous territory. The advisory comes after the fallout from a high-profile fraud incident involving the JPEX trading platform last fall, resulting in substantial losses of $192 million. Growing list of VATP license applicantsLast month, four additional crypto exchanges, including the KuCoin-affiliated HKVAEX and Singapore-based Bybit, joined the list of official VATP license applicants. The SFC began publishing this list in response to the JPEX scandal, underscoring the importance of regulatory compliance in the cryptocurrency sector. Hong Kong's virtual asset regulation, enacted as an amendment to the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing Ordinance last year, stipulates that companies engaged in selling or marketing cryptocurrencies to Hong Kong residents must apply for a license by Feb. 29. Those failing to do so must cease business operations in the city by May 31. Currently, OSL and HashKey are the only licensed exchanges in Hong Kong, having received an earlier voluntary license that was later upgraded to include retail investors. These exchanges are operating under an interim solution permitted by the SFC, allowing retail investors to trade on their platforms. Setting a high barWhile 14 companies have formally submitted license applications to date, Patricia Ho, General Counsel for blockchain company Scroll, told the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that the stringent requirements set by Hong Kong have led to a selective process. Ho explained that the city has intentionally set a high bar for application submission, resulting in only the most committed and resourceful entities progressing to the application stage. Last month, it emerged that the SFC had acted to bolster investor protection by introducing a minimum insurance requirement of 50% for licensed crypto exchanges that handle customer funds. It is also planning to introduce a regulatory framework relative to crypto over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks. The SFC is also monitoring individual crypto projects, as last week, the regulator issued a stern warning to those behind the offering of the Floki and TokenFi staking programs. As the deadline approaches, Ho anticipates potential enforcement actions against smaller platforms operating in legal gray areas. Larger platforms, on the other hand, have already begun restricting access from Hong Kong. 

NVT Ratio Signals Overvalued BTCThe network value to transaction (NVT) ratio of Bitcoin, which has been staying at a high level since the beginning of the year, has signaled its overvaluation, according to Yonhap Infomax.However, some argue that this will not necessarily lead to a crypto winter, considering that the nature of Bitcoin as an asset has changed and there is no sign of overheating in other indicators.©Pexels/PixabayPrice and NVT ratio correlationYonhap Infomax found out that the correlation between the NVT ratio and the price of Bitcoin over the past six years is -0.35. A value of 1 represents a completely positive correlation, while a value of -1 represents a completely negative correlation.Extending this period to 2010 makes the correlation close to 0, but during the early years, NVT ratios showed high volatility, shooting up to four digits. Such a high volatility doesn’t suggest much correlation. Until 2021, there was a high correlation of up to -0.44.The NVT ratio is calculated by dividing the market cap by the transacted volume. Conceptually, it is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio for the stock market.In 2017, when the crypto market was bullish, the average Bitcoin NVT ratio was 7.3. This number became 8.7 in 2021 when the market experienced a similar pattern. In retrospect, single-digit NVT ratios usually hint at bullish markets.This year so far, Bitcoin has been relatively overvalued, given that the average NVT ratio is 23.6.BTC price recoveryWhen the crypto market sentiment lost its confidence due to the FTX bankruptcy last year, the price of Bitcoin went down to $15,000. It later recovered to the near $30,000 level. The Bitcoin price once had reached an all-time high in 2021, surpassing $65,000.The years that manifested similar patterns as this year were 2018 and 2019. In those years, the Bitcoin NVT ratio plateaued around 20.Uncertain outlookThe NVT ratio itself could point to a possible crypto winter, but researchers say it’s hard to say.Jang Kyung-pil, a research analyst at crypto data platform Xangle, said that people now consider Bitcoin as a store of value rather than a means of transactions, pointing out that BTC’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has hit the bottom at 0.84 and now reached 1.4. According to Jang, MVRV values under 1 indicate undervaluation and those above 3 indicate overvaluation.Jung Seok-moon, head of the research center at crypto exchange Korbit, said that the current NVT ratio signals BTC overvaluation. He added that the Fed is likely to turn dovish in its monetary policy, which would prompt a strong BTC uptrend.

Subreddit Token Price Slide Following SurgeReddit’s subreddit community tokens, Moon and Brick, having experienced a remarkable surge in prices last week fueled by a significant increase in trading volume, have taken a downward trajectory, plummeting in price.Photo by Mike Petrucci on UnsplashCrypto.com token listingThe Moon token, associated with Reddit’s r/CryptoCurrency community boasting over 6.5 million members, shot up from approximately $0.09 to nearly $0.58 on July 19, just after Singapore trading platform Crypto.com listed the token.Concurrently, trading volume spiked to around $3 million on Wednesday, marking an impressive boost.Similarly, the Fortnite subreddit community token, Brick, which Crypto.com distributes as a reward to contributors of r/Fortnite, also witnessed a substantial price surge. The token’s value surged from $0.01 on July 17 to approximately $0.10 on July 19, according to data from CoinGecko.Surge acknowledgedIn response to the sudden price surges, Crypto.com released a note early on Monday, acknowledging the surge both tokens had experienced recently. However, in a swift turn of events, both tokens experienced a significant downturn in the past 24 hours, with their prices plummeting by over 20%.As of midday (ET) on Monday, Moon was trading at $0.33, while Brick was valued just under $0.05, as reported by CoinGecko data. Moreover, trading volumes for both tokens have significantly contracted during this period of volatility. Moon’s volume shrank from over $1 million on July 23 to approximately $200,000 on Monday. On the other hand, Brick’s volume saw an even more drastic decrease, falling from approximately $210,000 on July 23 to a mere $26,000 on Monday.Terms of service changeMarket analysts speculate that the recent change in Reddit’s Terms of Service might have been the catalyst for the initial price increases. Reddit’s alteration of its Terms of Service on July 16 to permit users to trade community tokens and avatars potentially triggered the surge in token prices. It appears that Web2 centralized virtual goods such as coins and awards are making way for tradable Web3 community points.Speculating on the token price surge, Bobby Ong, the Co-Founder and COO of Malaysia-headquartered cryptocurrency data aggregator CoinGecko, wrote via Twitter last week: “Both tokens increased at the speculation of the changes coming at Reddit. No one knows exactly what is happening but Reddit deprecating Web2 Coins & Awards while allowing trading of their Web3 CPs could be something to monitor in the coming months.”Despite the recent downturn, the overall crypto space remains highly dynamic and unpredictable. Events such as the listing of tokens on prominent trading platforms can cause rapid price fluctuations. As always, that scenario makes it essential for investors to approach these assets with caution.While Moon and Brick may have encountered a sharp decline, the cryptocurrency market, in general, has proven its resilience and ability to rebound with Bitcoin currently holding a unit price of $29,125. As the market continues to evolve and gain wider acceptance, investors will need to continue to exercise caution and consider the volatility inherent in digital assets.