3AC Liquidators Pursue $1.3 Billion from Founders

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

The CEO of Hong Kong’s central banking institution, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), has outlined that the introduction of the Chinese autonomous territory’s Stablecoins Ordinance on Aug. 1 will criminalize the unlicensed promotion of stablecoins. In an article published on the HKMA website on July 23, CEO Eddie Yue stated:”According to the Ordinance, starting from the commencement date, it will be illegal for any person to offer any unlicensed fiat-referenced stablecoin (FRS) to a retail investor, or actively market the issue of unlicensed FRS to the public of Hong Kong.”Photo by Manson Yim on UnsplashSubject to fine & imprisonmentIf an individual is found to have promoted an unlicensed stablecoin, they will be subject to a fine of HK$50,000 ($6,400) and imprisonment of up to six months. Yue warned the public to remain vigilant and to exercise caution if they come across marketing material related to an unlicensed stablecoin offering. The HKMA CEO is conscious of the fact that stablecoins are an emerging payment instrument that is being gradually integrated into the mainstream financial system. However, he feels that some discussion on stablecoins has been overly idealistic. Yue outlined that interactions with the few dozen institutions that have reached out to the HKMA with regard to stablecoin licensing have led him to believe that “many proposals remain conceptual.” He claimed that many of the institutions putting forward these proposals “fail to put together viable and concrete plans as well as implementation roadmaps, let alone demonstrate their awareness of risks and competence in managing them.” Limited license issuanceYue believes that in many instances, these institutions would be better served to collaborate with stablecoin issuers rather than becoming stablecoin issuers themselves. It’s on that basis that the HKMA will only grant a handful of stablecoin issuer licenses. Bloomberg reported that in the region of 50 companies have been seeking to apply for stablecoin licensing in the city, with the HKMA likely to approve around 10 licenses. It referenced particular interest from Chinese brokerages and a related move recently by asset management firm ChinaAMC in launching a yuan-denominated tokenized money market fund that facilitates subscriptions via stablecoins.  Significant Chinese businesses such as JD.com and Ant Group have been preparing to acquire stablecoin licensing in Hong Kong. Chinese stablecoin urgencyIn its Asia Morning Briefing, CoinDesk pointed out that in 2021, the Chinese authorities had been critical of the development of global stablecoins, preferring instead to concentrate on their own central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital yuan. However, it asserts that “Beijing’s caution on stablecoins is giving way to a sense of urgency.” Animoca Group President Evan Ayuang told the publication that China’s interest in stablecoins is on the rise. Ayuang asserted that actions taken by the Trump administration in the U.S. related to stablecoin policy are “pressuring China to act a lot faster.” Developments in Hong Kong are relevant in the context of China’s newfound interest in stablecoins. Lily King, chief operating officer (COO) at crypto custodian Cobo, stated recently that Hong Kong continues to be a testing ground for mainland China.  In keeping with that outlook, analysts at Morgan Stanley recently asserted that yuan-denominated stablecoin projects launched in Hong Kong would potentially serve as a developmental stablecoin sandbox for mainland China.

LINE NEXT and Sega Join Hands to Develop Web3 Games with NFTsLINE NEXT, the NFT business arm of Tokyo-based messaging app developer Line Corporation, has announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Japanese game company Sega. This partnership will see LINE NEXT acquiring intellectual property (IP) licenses of Sega’s video game franchises for the purpose of jointly developing Web3 games.Renowned for its iconic Sonic the Hedgehog franchise, Sega boasts studios in Japan and abroad. The Japanese game publisher produces games of various genres on different platforms, including arcade machines, desktop computers, and mobile phones. Sega has gained recognition for creating generational games for international users through innovative ideas and outstanding game development skills.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashWeb3 game popularizationThrough this collaboration, LINE NEXT will introduce Sega-licensed games on its NFT-based gaming platform, GAME DOSI, with the aim of popularizing Web3 games. GAME DOSI will provide functionalities such as NFT creation, easy payment, and marketing. While the specific lineup of games and their details will be revealed at a later date, LINE NEXT CEO Ko Young-su expressed his belief that this MOU with Sega will bring new elements of joy to global gamers, emphasizing that the NFT company is dedicated to delivering readily enjoyable Web3 content not only to Sega fans but to everyone through GAME DOSI.Launched in May, GAME DOSI focuses on user-oriented games with the slogan “Gamer First, Web3 Next.” The platform has recently unveiled several new games, including Sweet Monster Guardians (a village defense game); Vestria the Last Order, also known as V.L.O, (a roguelite role-playing game); and KEROZ (a hack and slash game). Additionally, GAME DOSI is actively involved in Project GD, an initiative aimed at developing a diverse range of games based on its own intellectual properties.LINE NEXT’s NFT endeavorsIn its efforts to attract NFT enthusiasts, LINE NEXT has undertaken various projects. Last month, it introduced DOSI Land, a program that rewards users with the FINSCHIA token (FNSA). FNSA is currently listed on crypto exchanges Bithumb, Bittrex, Huobi, and Gate.io, according to crypto market data website CoinMarketCap.Sega’s blockchain hesitancyMeanwhile, it was reported earlier that Sega has been rethinking its involvement in blockchain gaming. Shuji Utsumi, the Co-Chief Operating Officer of Sega, recently stated in an interview with Bloomberg that the company intends to protect the value of its content by withholding from participating in third-party blockchain gaming projects. Utsumi expressed his belief in the importance of the fun element in games, while he described “play-to-earn” (P2E) blockchain games as “boring.” P2E games refer to those that enable players to earn tokens as rewards for completing specific tasks or winning battles against other players.