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Matrixport Forecasts Bitcoin Bull Market Breather Ahead

Markets·June 23, 2023, 11:32 PM

Matrixport, the Singapore-headquartered digital asset financial services provider, has reported a significant surge in its Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index (GFI) over the past week.

Photo by Karolina Grabowska on Pexels

 

Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index (GFI)

The index, which tracks market sentiments, has skyrocketed from below 10% to a staggering 93%. Such a rapid increase indicates a prevailing sense of greed and excessive optimism among Bitcoin investors. As a result, industry experts are suggesting that a breather in the ongoing Bitcoin rally may be on the cards.

Markus Thielen, the Head of Research and Strategy at Matrixport, has advised short-term traders to consider capitalizing on their gains given the exuberant levels recorded by the Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index. Historical analysis reveals that readings above 90% have often signaled interim tops in Bitcoin’s price, while readings below 10% have preceded notable price rallies.

 

Upward movement favorable

Despite the current high reading, the 21-day simple moving average of the index remains below the critical 90% mark. This implies that the overall trajectory for Bitcoin still favors upward movement. Thielen points out that the rising 21-day moving average indicates the potential for further upside once the current phase of exuberance subsides, allowing for consolidation in the market.

Chart analysts share an optimistic view of Bitcoin’s future, with some predicting a potential rally towards the $35,000 mark and beyond. Josh Olszewicz, Head of Research at digital asset investment firm Valkyrie, highlights a falling wedge setup in Bitcoin’s recent price action.

The successful bounce off the support level, combined with the completion of the falling wedge pattern, has heightened expectations for a move towards the mid-$30,000 range. Olszewicz does caution that significant resistance may arise in that zone, likely leading to a subsequent period of re-consolidation before any further upward progress can be made.

In recent weeks, Bitcoin experienced a pullback from its mid-April high of $31,000, eventually finding support around the $25,200 level earlier this month. This pullback, often referred to as a “throwback,” historically acts as a catalyst for price rallies, as has been evident in the past few days.

 

Ether gain potential

While Bitcoin’s rally has been impressive, Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has seen a gain of 15.9% since last Thursday. However, Ether’s GFI index has yet to reach the 90% threshold, indicating potential room for further growth while Bitcoin takes a breather.

Matrixport’s Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index has surged to an astonishing 93%, signaling heightened levels of greed and optimism among Bitcoin investors. Traders are advised to consider securing their gains as the index reaches exuberant levels.

Nonetheless, the rising 21-day moving average suggests the potential for Bitcoin’s upward momentum to continue following a period of consolidation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $31,200, based on CoinGecko data. Going into the weekend, that’s demonstrating continued growth. Meanwhile, Ether shows promising performance, with potential for further growth.

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Policy & Regulation·

Oct 19, 2023

Public Confidence in Crypto Wanes in Hong Kong Amid JPEX Scandal

Public Confidence in Crypto Wanes in Hong Kong Amid JPEX ScandalThe development of cryptocurrency in Hong Kong has been dented in terms of public sentiment following the JPEX cryptocurrency exchange scandal, according to a recent survey conducted by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology’s (HKUST) business school.Photo by Alex Plesovskich on UnsplashA two-phase survey methodologyThe survey, the preliminary results of which were disclosed by the business school on Tuesday, aimed to gauge how public attitudes toward virtual assets had been affected by the JPEX scandal, which rocked the crypto community within the Chinese autonomous territory.While the survey is set to conclude on October 20, the preliminary findings have already revealed a noteworthy shift in public perception. Notably, 41% of respondents expressed a preference not to hold virtual assets, marking a 12-percentage-point increase from the earlier study conducted in May.Moreover, only 20% of respondents indicated a desire to hold virtual assets in the future, reflecting a five-percentage-point decrease compared to the previous survey. These findings suggest a growing skepticism among Hong Kong’s populace regarding the cryptocurrency industry.Post-JPEX public sentimentThe initial survey involved 5,700 participants aged 18 and above and was conducted between April 24 and May 23. Phase two of the survey commenced on September 28, approximately 11 days after the allegations against JPEX came to light. The results were compared to a similar survey conducted between April and May to assess the evolving sentiment. Between September 28 and October 5, phase two of the survey had compiled responses from 2,200 individuals.HKUST acknowledged that the second survey occurred in the “aftermath of an alleged financial fraud” involving a cryptocurrency platform but refrained from directly naming JPEX in the report.Professor Allen Huang, Associate Dean of HKUST’s business school, attributed the shift in sentiment to the recent financial scandal, which thrust the cryptocurrency industry into the spotlight. This heightened attention has led to a “more conservative investment appetite” among the public. He emphasized the need for greater educational initiatives to enhance public awareness and understanding of the risks and potential of this emerging field.HKUST’s business school stated that the survey’s primary objective was to assess the attitudes and viewpoints of Hong Kong’s residents regarding virtual asset investments, considering their experiences, intentions, and the regulatory safeguards in place.JPEX falloutThe JPEX scandal, which allegedly involved a $166 million fraud scheme, unfolded over several months before Hong Kong authorities publicly announced their investigation into the exchange. It forced local regulators to reassess the soundness of crypto trading-related regulatory measures applied within the Chinese autonomous territory.That reassessment led to regulators concluding that efforts needed to be intensified to combat unregulated platforms operating within Hong Kong. In response to the JPEX saga, the Hong Kong Police Force and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) established a cryptocurrency-focused working group earlier this month to combat illicit activities on cryptocurrency exchanges.The evolving sentiment in Hong Kong reflects the broader challenges and concerns surrounding the cryptocurrency industry. As regulatory scrutiny increases and major incidents like the JPEX scandal come to light, it’s clear that fostering public trust and understanding is a pressing priority for crypto businesses and the broader crypto community.

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Policy & Regulation·

Oct 04, 2023

Binance Collaborates with Thai Police to Bust $277 Million Crypto Scam

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Policy & Regulation·

May 27, 2023

Study Places Hong Kong as Leader in Crypto Readiness

Study Places Hong Kong as Leader in Crypto ReadinessHong Kong, according to a recent study conducted by Forex Suggest, has emerged as the leading jurisdiction worldwide in terms of its readiness for cryptocurrencies. The study evaluated various factors such as the number of blockchain startups per 100,000 people and the density of crypto ATMs in relation to the population.Photo by Traxer on UnsplashZero capital gains taxThe attractiveness of Hong Kong for investors in the crypto space stems from its advantageous tax policies. The study noted that Hong Kong does not levy capital gains taxes on cryptocurrency, making it an appealing destination for crypto enthusiasts. The United States and Switzerland secured the second and third positions, respectively, in the rankings of the most crypto-ready countries.In recent times, Hong Kong has actively embraced investments from digital asset companies and is poised to implement new regulations for the industry. Effective from June 1, the city’s new rules aim to establish Hong Kong as a global hub for digital assets. These regulations permit licensed cryptocurrency trading platforms to offer services to retail investors while incorporating measures to safeguard individual traders.Global crypto firms are gearing up for that new licensing approach, carving out separate corporate entities in order to meet the regulatory requirements which the Hong Kong regulator, the Securities Futures Commission (SFC), has set. Another Hong Kong regulator, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), is also opening up to embrace digital asset innovation through a pilot project implicating the tokenization of real world assets.Regarding the number of blockchain startups, Hong Kong boasts three startups per 100,000 individuals, securing the second position globally. Topping the list is Switzerland, with an impressive count of 12.9 blockchain startups per 100,000 residents, amounting to a total of 1,128.The study also highlighted that countries such as Hong Kong, Switzerland, Panama, Portugal, Germany, Malaysia, and Turkey impose the lowest taxes on cryptocurrencies. These nations exempt individuals from capital gains taxes on profits derived from cryptocurrency trading.Crypto ATM proliferationWhen considering the prevalence of crypto ATMs, Hong Kong ranks third globally, with two ATMs per 100,000 people, totaling 149 ATMs. The United States takes the top spot with nearly 34,000 crypto ATMs, but when normalized to the population, it has 10.1 ATMs per 100,000 individuals.Regressive measures in USIn contrast to Hong Kong’s favorable environment, regulators in the United States have intensified their efforts to tighten regulations on cryptocurrency exchanges, leading many within the industry to advocate for clearer guidelines. Consequently, several exchanges are exploring jurisdictions that offer more favorable conditions.Forex Suggest emphasized that the report’s findings were based on extensive data analysis, taking into account factors such as tax regulations, legislation, the presence of blockchain startups, and the level of interest in cryptocurrencies. Each jurisdiction received a normalized score out of 10 for each factor, and the overall rankings were determined by averaging these scores.Hong Kong’s position as the most crypto-ready jurisdiction in the world showcases its commitment to fostering innovation and becoming a global leader in the digital asset space. With its advantageous tax policies, growing number of blockchain startups, and forthcoming regulations, the autonomous Chinese territory is solidifying its position as an attractive destination for businesses and investors in the cryptocurrency space.

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