NVT Ratio Signals Overvalued BTC

The local government of Busan, the second-largest city in South Korea, announced in a press release that it held the 3rd Busan Blockchain Regulation-free Zone Steering Committee (Committee) meeting at the Busan Eurasia Platform, a community center located near Busan Station.  The meeting took place last Thursday at 15:00 (KST), attended by 12 Committee members, including Busan’s Vice Mayor for Economic Affairs Kim Kwang-hee, Busan Technopark Chairman Kim Hyung-gyun, Busan International Finance Agency Chairman Lee Myung-ho and Busan Information Industry Promotion Agency Chairman Kim Tae-yeol.Photo by Finn on UnsplashThe meeting was intended to discuss strategies to revitalize the blockchain regulation-free zone (blockchain zone) and to attract new blockchain businesses to the region. Busan has been recently struggling with developing and attracting blockchain technology companies to the region, which has cast doubt on the city’s ability to retain its status as the regulatory sandbox zone.   New 24 members, new commitment to invigorating blockchain zone Established in October last year, the 3rd Committee comprises 24 new members who have expertise in blockchain technology. The Committee aims to raise awareness of the blockchain zone’s potential and foster the blockchain industry within the region.  Kim Sang-min, Vice CEO of healthcare company Erom, was appointed Committee Chairman at the meeting. Known as an expert in the blockchain ecosystem, Kim currently serves as a blockchain policy advisor for Busan and has experience in taking the lead in establishing the Busan Digital Asset Exchange (BDX) last year.  More meetings in store to become a blockchain hub The meeting focused on creating subcommittees in an effort to facilitate the Committee’s seamless operation. Moreover, members reached a consensus on holding meetings at any time when warranted, in both online and in-person formats.  During the meeting, Busan Vice Mayor Kim said the newly launched Committee will contribute to identifying innovative businesses with great potential that require both cutting-edge blockchain technologies and a regulatory sandbox environment. 

Polymarket activity under scrutiny in Taiwan due to election contractsTaiwanese law enforcement is currently delving into the activities of online influencers and community members promoting Polymarket contracts related to the upcoming presidential election which is due to be held on Jan. 13.Polymarket is a New York-based Ethereum-centric prediction market. The platform runs on the Ethereum layer-2 scaling solution network Polygon. The project invites platform users to bet on the outcomes of a broad spectrum of events, ranging from politics to entertainment.Users deposit USDC stablecoin, choose an event to bet on and purchase “outcome shares” through USDC. The user has the ability to trade those shares anytime before the resolution of the contract.Photo by Ethan Lin on UnsplashPossible election law violationsThe Taiwanese investigation came to light in a report by Taiwan-based crypto publication BlockTempo, which was published last week. The investigation comes as concerns arose about potential violations of Taiwan’s Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act, which explicitly prohibits gambling on election outcomes.Multiple influencers and crypto community members have reportedly been subpoenaed for their involvement in Polymarket contracts, allowing users to place bets on the January election. At present, the betting pool for the election holds over $300,000, with a market prediction favoring the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, with a 78% chance of winning.However, the legality of such betting activities is in question under Article 88–1 of Taiwan’s election law. It stipulates that anyone gambling on the outcome of an election or recall in a public place or a place open to the public may face imprisonment, short-term detention or a fine of up to NT$100,000 ($3,196.85).Sherman Lin, an attorney at Taipei-based Lin & Partners, emphasized the seriousness with which law enforcement views gambling activities related to presidential elections in Taiwan. He explained that broad legal interpretations under the Presidential Election and Recall Act have led to investigations and convictions of gambling website operators targeting Taiwanese gamblers. Lin stated:“Law enforcement agencies in Taiwan are vigilant in investigating any gambling activities related to presidential elections.”“Broad legal interpretations have been applied to gambling crimes under the Presidential Election and Recall Act, leading to investigations and convictions of gambling website operators in Taiwan targeting Taiwanese gamblers,” he added.Prohibited in United StatesComparing the situation to the United States, where gambling on election outcomes is illegal in most states, Lin noted that enforcing such regulations often falls under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket’s Terms of Use explicitly prohibit usage by U.S. persons.Despite potential legal consequences for gambling activities in Taiwan, including participation, promotion and platform hosting for betting pools like Polymarket, Lin pointed out that enforcing actions against overseas entities poses jurisdictional challenges. Taiwan’s legal reach is primarily limited to domestic actors, creating complexities in addressing decentralized platforms like Polymarket.Lin suggested that law enforcement may focus on online influencers who promoted the Polymarket contract, as seen in previous cases involving the collapse of the unlicensed crypto exchange JPEX in Hong Kong.Moreover, while there are legal precedents for pursuing centralized entities organizing election gambling, Lin highlighted that no established legal precedent in Taiwan currently exists for decentralized platforms organizing election betting.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) last Tuesday, prompting South Korean investors to flock to cryptocurrency exchanges to make transactions. However, the revenues recorded by these exchanges showed a mixed performance in response to this development due to their differing transaction fee policies, according to local news outlet DealSite on Monday.Photo by Maxim Hopman on UnsplashTrading volumes surge and retreatAccording to crypto analytics platform CoinGecko, as of 9 a.m. on Jan. 12 (KST), Upbit's trading volume on Dec. 11 and 12 was approximately $5.1 billion and $6.1 billion, respectively, for a total of about $11 billion. During the same period, Bithumb recorded $2.6 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively, totaling nearly $5 billion. However, as of this writing at 11 a.m. on Jan. 15, Upbit’s 24-hour trading volume has dropped back down to $2.1 billion and Bithumb to $874 million. "After the SEC's approval, crypto exchanges were simultaneously flooded with transactions," an anonymous industry employee commented. "Bitcoin and Ethereum were mainly traded." Fee divergenceAlthough the ETF approval caused a general uptick in trading volumes, the amount of revenue that the exchanges earned from transaction fees varied. Upbit charges a fee of 0.05% for both buying and selling crypto, meaning the exchange made an estimated KRW 14.8 billion in revenue from the fees from Dec. 11 to 12. Bithumb, on the other hand, hasn't earned any revenue from trading fees since its zero-fee policy was implemented in October last year.  Bithumb had previously charged 0.25% for transactions and 0.04% with coupons. By implementing the former, the exchange lost about KRW 15.8 billion ($12 million) in revenue, and with the latter, it lost about KRW 2.5 billion. For crypto investors, Bithumb's zero-fee policy has made investing more accessible, but the exchange is unlikely to reap its own rewards. Significant investor interestMoreover, with trading for the spot bitcoin ETF beginning on the 11th, the influx of funds is expected to boost trading. "All told there were 700,000 individual trades today in and out of the 11 spot ETFs," Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas told X (formerly Twitter). "For context, that is double the number of trades for $QQQ." $QQQ refers to the Invesco QQQ ETF. According to an image that accompanied Balchunas’ post, the total trading volume across all 11 spot ETFs was reportedly $4.3 billion. Grayscale's GBTC had the highest volume at $2.1 billion, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT at $1 billion and Fidelity’s FBTC at $673 million.