Top

NVT Ratio Signals Overvalued BTC

Markets·April 12, 2023, 3:35 AM

The network value to transaction (NVT) ratio of Bitcoin, which has been staying at a high level since the beginning of the year, has signaled its overvaluation, according to Yonhap Infomax.

However, some argue that this will not necessarily lead to a crypto winter, considering that the nature of Bitcoin as an asset has changed and there is no sign of overheating in other indicators.

BTC coin
©Pexels/Pixabay

 

Price and NVT ratio correlation

Yonhap Infomax found out that the correlation between the NVT ratio and the price of Bitcoin over the past six years is -0.35. A value of 1 represents a completely positive correlation, while a value of -1 represents a completely negative correlation.

Extending this period to 2010 makes the correlation close to 0, but during the early years, NVT ratios showed high volatility, shooting up to four digits. Such a high volatility doesn’t suggest much correlation. Until 2021, there was a high correlation of up to -0.44.

The NVT ratio is calculated by dividing the market cap by the transacted volume. Conceptually, it is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio for the stock market.

In 2017, when the crypto market was bullish, the average Bitcoin NVT ratio was 7.3. This number became 8.7 in 2021 when the market experienced a similar pattern. In retrospect, single-digit NVT ratios usually hint at bullish markets.

This year so far, Bitcoin has been relatively overvalued, given that the average NVT ratio is 23.6.

 

BTC price recovery

When the crypto market sentiment lost its confidence due to the FTX bankruptcy last year, the price of Bitcoin went down to $15,000. It later recovered to the near $30,000 level. The Bitcoin price once had reached an all-time high in 2021, surpassing $65,000.

The years that manifested similar patterns as this year were 2018 and 2019. In those years, the Bitcoin NVT ratio plateaued around 20.

 

Uncertain outlook

The NVT ratio itself could point to a possible crypto winter, but researchers say it’s hard to say.

Jang Kyung-pil, a research analyst at crypto data platform Xangle, said that people now consider Bitcoin as a store of value rather than a means of transactions, pointing out that BTC’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has hit the bottom at 0.84 and now reached 1.4. According to Jang, MVRV values under 1 indicate undervaluation and those above 3 indicate overvaluation.

Jung Seok-moon, head of the research center at crypto exchange Korbit, said that the current NVT ratio signals BTC overvaluation. He added that the Fed is likely to turn dovish in its monetary policy, which would prompt a strong BTC uptrend.

More to Read
View All
Web3 & Enterprise·

Nov 17, 2023

Coinbit suspends operations, marking second crypto exchange shutdown this month

Coinbit suspends operations, marking second crypto exchange shutdown this monthCoinbit, a South Korean cryptocurrency exchange operated by blockchain service provider AXIASOFT, has suspended its services according to an official announcement on its website posted on Thursday (local time). This development comes just over a year after it became a virtual asset service provider (VASP) on Sept. 1 last year. It is also the second crypto exchange in the country that has ended its operations after Cashierest on Nov. 6, indicating that troubled predictions previously projected by industry sources are becoming a reality.Photo by Andrew Winkler on UnsplashBusiness transitionCoinbit explained that, despite its efforts to create an environment optimized for transparent crypto transactions, it was pushed by ongoing changes in regulatory policies to make changes to its business. It intends to shift its focus to establishing a securitized transaction system.Membership registration and deposits will no longer be allowed starting at 5 p.m. next Friday. Transactions and withdrawal services will be suspended from 1 p.m. on Dec. 29. The exchange advised its users to withdraw their virtual assets accordingly.Earlier, it was reported that Coinbit was facing difficulties maintaining smooth operations due to its exceedingly low trading volume. Industry sources believe that the realization of the previously speculated closure of coin market exchanges.More shutdowns to come?“Much of the workforce at crypto exchanges have been taking hits, leading to challenging business conditions,” stated an unnamed industry expert, proposing conjecture that more announcements of service suspensions may be imminent. According to a survey conducted earlier this year by the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), 10 out of 21 crypto exchanges reported zero revenue from transaction fees, and 18 were in a state of complete capital impairment.

news
Web3 & Enterprise·

Aug 25, 2023

Dunamu Distributes 4,100 NFTs for Climate Change Campaign

Dunamu Distributes 4,100 NFTs for Climate Change CampaignDunamu, the operator of the South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit, announced that it has distributed 4,100 non-fungible tokens (NFTs) from the Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species (CBIS) list in collaboration with four agencies under the Ministry of Environment — the National Institute of Biological Resources, the Nakdonggang National Institute of Biological Resources, the Honam National Institute of Biological Resources, and the National Institute of Ecology. This comes as part of efforts to raise awareness about the importance of biodiversity and habitat protection amid the threat of climate change.Photo by Yiju Cheng on UnsplashThemed NFTs for conservationThe CBIS list outlines species whose seasonal activities, habitat area, and population size are susceptible to being impacted by climate change, thus requiring continuous observation and management by the government.Dunamu, along with the four environmental institutions, minted NFTs representing 15 different species from the list — such as the white eye bird and the camellia tree — to distribute to participants of their Resource Circulation Climate Action Campaign.The latest round of NFT distributions was carried out in collaboration with the Honam National Institute of Biological Resources from May 19 to August 11. It is the first of four to be carried out over the course of the year following their initial announcement to do so in May.Empowering climate action beyond boundariesParticipants showed a positive reaction to the utilization of emerging technologies such as NFTs and the metaverse, which enabled them to contribute to climate change efforts without the limits posed by time and space. By organizing fun missions within the metaverse and gifting NFTs to participants, Dunamu and the environmental agencies were able to highlight the severity of the climate crisis while simultaneously making the concept of resource circulation more accessible and easier to understand. Dunamu reported that during the three-month period of the first campaign, the designated campaign space within Dunamu’s metaverse platform, 2ndblock, also racked up a cumulative visitor count of 73,000 users.The second campaign has also commenced and is running from now until October 2. This time around, Dunamu is working with the Nakdonggang National Institute of Biological Resources to issue 1,000 NFTs of four species: the tree frog, barn swallow, kumgang minnow, and little egret. Noteworthy artists will also contribute to creating the NFTs, including those from the Botanical Artist Society of Korea.In order to partake in the campaign, participants must complete the stamp-collecting mission in the campaign space on 2ndblock. Lucky participants who are chosen to receive NFTs must register their issued gift code on Upbit’s NFT marketplace.“As a result of our deliberation on ways to contribute to the environment and society with our technology and resources, many people have shown interest in our online and in-person climate efforts,” said Lee Sirgoo, CEO of Dunamu. He also expressed hopes for continued participation and support for the remaining NFT distributions and campaigns to promote environmental protection and biodiversity conservation.This collaboration between the private and public sectors which combines online and in-person activities stands out as an innovative method for combatting climate change.

news
Web3 & Enterprise·

Aug 02, 2023

Puzzle Monsters Wins Investment from CRIT Ventures for Web3 Game Expansion

Puzzle Monsters Wins Investment from CRIT Ventures for Web3 Game ExpansionSouth Korean blockchain game developer Puzzle Monsters has secured an investment from CRIT Ventures, a venture capital subsidiary of Com2uS Group, during its recent Pre-A investment round. The amount hasn’t been disclosed.The investment comes as part of CRIT Ventures’ efforts to expand its investment portfolio with promising companies specializing in Web3 content and platforms.“Through CRIT Ventures’ investment, we look forward to honing our game development expertise and securing a faster and more meaningful gateway to the blockchain infrastructure and community,” said Yang Jin-hwan, CEO of Puzzle Monsters.Photo by Precondo CA on UnsplashAbout Puzzle MonstersPuzzle Monsters is known for its away-from-keyboard massively multiplayer online role-playing game (AFK MMORPG) called “Idle Ninja Online,” which began incorporating blockchain technology at the end of 2021 and earning popularity among users.The developer’s mounting success can be accredited to its creative game ideas and a keen understanding of market trends. Its other flagship game, Ninja Survivors Online, is also enjoyed by many users both domestically and overseas.“We want to present better products to the market, both in terms of gameplay and blockchain integration,” CEO Yang emphasized.Boosting the market for Web3 gamingCRIT Ventures’ parent group Com2uS has been focusing on leading the Web3 market with various games and game platforms that are based on the XPLA blockchain mainnet. It has also recently launched the immersive online community space SPAXE in Com2uS’s all-in-one metaverse service Com2Verse. Earlier this year, Com2Verse partnered with Microsoft Korea to apply artificial intelligence technology to the metaverse.Com2uS additionally unveiled plans to onboard Puzzle Monsters’ current and future games onto XPLA, aiming to create maximum synergy.

news
Loading