Top

The coming crypto bull run ‘an Asian story’

Markets·January 09, 2024, 3:10 AM

Australian venture capitalist and founder of MHC Digital Group, Mark Carnegie, is optimistic about bitcoin's potential for a bullish trend, while believing that Asia will be the real force driving the market beyond the exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval hype in the United States.

https://asset.coinness.com/en/news/6239144835d133a8fbb76cee833e2a90.jpg
Photo by Hans Eiskonen on Unsplash

$50,000 bitcoin retest

In a recent interview with CNBC, Carnegie expressed his belief that bitcoin is "clearly primed for a bit of a run and a retest to $50,000." The bitcoin unit price stood at around $43,600 at the time of the interview. At the time of writing, it’s weighing in at $46,773. While there’s likely to be considerable resistance in the leading cryptocurrency getting past the psychologically important $50,000 level, the digital asset is certainly heading in the direction that Carnegie had predicted.

 

Looking ahead, Carnegie shared his short-to-medium-term outlook, stating:

"So my feeling is short term, long, medium term, which is, you know, 30 to 90 days, probably a retrace." This suggests that Carnegie anticipates a positive trajectory for bitcoin in the coming months, likely as an initial response to a spot bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S.

 

Last week a report from Singapore-based digital asset financial services firm Matrixport speculated that spot bitcoin ETF applications would be rejected as they have been over the past few years.

 

Market risk factors

However, he also voiced concerns about the current state of the U.S. equity markets and potential recession indicators.

 

Reflecting on the recent miss on payrolls, Carnegie commented:

"I feel like that miss on payrolls last week makes me feel like there's a big flip. And everyone's going to start panicking about a recession."

 

Despite the uncertainty in traditional markets, Carnegie remains optimistic about bitcoin's performance. When asked about the specific impact on cryptocurrencies, he admitted, "How's that going to affect crypto? I don't really know."

 

In a blog post published last Friday, Arthur Hayes, the CIO of Hong Kong-based family office Maelstrom, similarly points to market turbulence in the short to medium term while remaining bullish on bitcoin over the longer term.

 

An Asia-powered bull run

Carnegie highlighted the influence of spot bitcoin ETFs and suggested inflows, noting that there are more net flows from Asia than the U.S. He stated:

“You could easily see $50 - $100 billion in net new flow out of Asia this year, and if that happens..!”

 

He mentioned the anticipation of approximately $5 billion waiting to come into the U.S., characterizing it as substantial but perhaps not as impactful as expected in the short term. "It's an Asian story this time round,” Carnegie claimed.

 

Carnegie also expressed a preference for bitcoin over Ethereum in the current financial landscape. He stated:

"Bitcoin feels more solid to me at the moment. So on a relative basis, I can talk like I can talk to you. I feel like for the next little while, Bitcoin feels better to me than Ethereum."

 

Mark Carnegie's positive outlook on bitcoin's potential rally to $50,000 aligns with his preference for bitcoin over Ethereum in the current market conditions, despite concerns about the broader economic landscape.

 

 

More to Read
View All
Policy & Regulation·

Jun 07, 2023

Lawsuit Sees Further Chinese Crypto TV Coverage

Lawsuit Sees Further Chinese Crypto TV CoverageChina’s state broadcaster, CCTV, rarely covers the topic of crypto but in the space of the past three weeks, it has covered the subject twice, with the latest segment covering the news of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing a lawsuit against global crypto exchange, Binance.Photo by Paolo Chiabrando on UnsplashBad pressThe segment, which aired on CCTV, provided a brief overview of the lawsuit, stating that the SEC accused Binance, its Co-Founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), and its American affiliate Binance.US of violating US securities laws. The report also noted that the prices of Bitcoin and Binance’s native BNB coin experienced a decline following the news.The lawsuit filed by the SEC received significant media attention due to Binance’s position as the world’s largest crypto exchange. The crypto industry in the US has been under increased scrutiny following the recent troubles faced by FTX, another major player in the market. Prosecutors have alleged that FTX engaged in fraudulent activities that harmed its users.Many blame US regulators who spent hundreds of hours with FTX executives working on projects, and US Capitol Hill politicians, 33% of whom received money from FTX, as being culpable for the FTX collapse. Despite this, it’s clear that the collapse is being leveraged to effect a clampdown on the digital assets sector.It is worth noting that the CCTV broadcast also made mention of a lawsuit filed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against Binance and CZ in March. This lawsuit, similar to the SEC’s, focused on the sale of crypto derivatives. It is unclear whether CCTV covered the CFTC lawsuit when it was initially filed.CCTV’s coverage of crypto-related news is rare, making this particular broadcast significant and garnering wider attention. The outcome of legal action taken by the SEC against Binance is being watched carefully as it will likely have implications for digital asset regulation going forward.Previous coverageIn a previous broadcast last month, CCTV aired a segment that featured cryptocurrencies, including the Bitcoin logo. Ironically, given the nature of this latest reporting, Binance’s CZ regarded that previous coverage as a noteworthy event. Historically, such coverage has often preceded bull runs in the crypto market. The segment showcased what appeared to be a Bitcoin ATM in Hong Kong, displaying a prominent blue Bitcoin logo and an option to “Buy Bitcoins.”NFTs were also highlighted in the segment. Many speculated that the coverage signified a softening of the stance of the Chinese authorities in relation to crypto. However, the video of the initial crypto segment was taken down from the broadcaster’s website shortly after CZ tweeted about it.Despite it not being the most positive of news, CCTV’s coverage of the Binance lawsuit and its previous segment on cryptocurrencies indicates a growing interest in the industry from mainstream media outlets. The attention from a state broadcaster like CCTV suggests that regulators and authorities in China are closely monitoring developments in the crypto space and considering their potential impact on the broader financial landscape.

news
Web3 & Enterprise·

Jun 23, 2023

Japan’s Biggest Bank Explores Global Stablecoin Issuance

Japan’s Biggest Bank Explores Global Stablecoin IssuanceMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (MUFG), the largest bank in Japan, is currently engaged in discussions with companies involved in popular global stablecoins, as well as other firms, to explore the possibility of issuing these tokens using MUFG’s blockchain platform.That’s according to a report published by Bloomberg on Thursday. The stablecoin law in Japan, which recently went into effect on June 1, has established that only licensed banks, registered money transfer agents, and trust companies within the country are authorized to issue stablecoins.Photo by CoinWire Japan on UnsplashProgmat platformMUFG is actively in talks with various parties regarding the utilization of its blockchain platform, Progmat, to mint stablecoins linked to foreign currencies, including the US dollar, with the intention of facilitating their global use.Tatsuya Saito, the Vice President of Product at MUFG, emphasized that the implementation of the legislation provides issuers and users with a sense of security when it comes to engaging with stablecoins. However, he refrained from disclosing the specific stablecoin parties that MUFG is currently in discussions with.Stablecoins play a pivotal role within the cryptocurrency sector, serving as a reliable asset for investors to hold between trades involving more volatile tokens. These tokens are designed to maintain a consistent value, often pegged to $1, and are typically backed by reserves such as cash and bonds. CoinGecko data indicates that approximately $130 billion worth of stablecoins are presently in circulation.Stablecoin stabilityNevertheless, stablecoins have faced challenges in the past when it comes to maintaining their pegs, resulting in disruptions within crypto markets. Notably, TerraUSD, a token reliant on algorithms and trader incentives, experienced a significant crash in May 2022, leading to losses of at least $40 billion. In response to such incidents, regulators have intensified their scrutiny of stablecoins. The stablecoin law in Japan encourages the issuance of stablecoins that are fully backed by fiat cash in a corresponding currency.MUFG envisions leveraging its Progmat blockchain platform to issue security tokens on behalf of third parties, with no immediate plans to develop its own stablecoin, according to Saito. He further revealed that the bank is actively exploring stablecoin projects with entertainment firms, non-financial businesses, and a consortium of Japanese financial institutions. Furthermore, overseas financial groups have shown keen interest, and Saito believes that Japan has the potential to become a global hub for stablecoin issuance.Tether dominanceTether ($USDT) holds the position of the top global stablecoin, accounting for more than 60% of the sector’s market value, while Circle Internet Financial Ltd.’s USD Coin ($USDC) occupies the second spot. Any party intending to produce stablecoins within Japan would need to comply with the country’s legislation.Saito highlighted that the regulation’s provision allowing stablecoins to be denominated in various currencies, including the US dollar, opens up opportunities for the issuance of tokens intended for global use. He expressed his belief that this presents a significant opportunity for Japan.Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s economic agenda, known as “New Capitalism,” includes a focus on supporting the growth of Web3 firms. While Japan has taken steps to relax certain cryptocurrency regulations, such as those pertaining to token listing and taxation, it continues to be perceived as a country with relatively strict regulations.

news
Policy & Regulation·

Dec 02, 2023

Binance’s U.S. legal woes may have repercussions for its expansion in Thailand

Binance’s U.S. legal woes may have repercussions for its expansion in ThailandWhile Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, is gearing up for a new trading venture in Thailand, the recent guilty plea by the firm in the United States and the hefty $4.3 billion penalties for anti-money laundering and sanctions violations have raised concerns about the feasibility of its Thai market venture.That’s a consideration that has been raised by a recent report by Bloomberg. Earlier this month, it emerged that Binance had entered the beta testing phase of its Binance.th platform in Thailand. The venture is a collaboration with the local company, Gulf Energy Development Pcl, led by billionaire Sarath Ratanavadi.Photo by Peter Borter on UnsplashCasting a shadow over expansion plansFollowing Founder Changpeng Zhao’s (CZ) departure from the CEO role in the wake of the US criminal probe resolution, Singaporean Richard Teng, a regulator-turned-crypto executive, has taken the helm at Binance. In its report, Bloomberg suggests that these recent issues in the U.S. have “cast a shadow over the planned domestic digital-asset platform” in Thailand.The new Binance CEO has emphasized Binance’s commitment to compliance overhaul and increased corporate transparency. In an interview Ratanavadi expressed confidence in Binance, noting that the company was not accused of crimes such as fraud or misuse of customer funds in the U.S. settlement. He stated:“Binance grew extremely fast and so probably crossed paths with some regulations.”Despite the regulatory storm, Ratanavadi chose Binance due to its market-leading position. The stringent scrutiny by Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission and the approval process, including inquiries about Binance, reflect the regulator’s cautious approach. The Gulf Binance Co. platform is set to launch fully in January, with Gulf Energy holding a 51% stake and Binance the remaining share.Challenges in other Asian marketsThe company may also face additional challenges in other Asian markets as a consequence of its regulatory troubles in the United States. While it remains to be seen if this was an unrelated development, it emerged earlier this week that regulators in the Philippines were moving to block access to the Binance platform and curtail the exchange’s ability to target Filipinos through advertising.In South Korea, Binance’s activities in the country have come under renewed scrutiny within the crypto community in the wake of the regulatory penalties Binance has experienced in the U.S. Binance is active in that market through its acquisition of fiat-to-crypto exchange GOPAX. While GOPAX management are unfazed by these events, others have suggested that there may be consequences in terms of the ability of GOPAX to achieve full regulatory approval.Demand reductionAnother challenge for the Thai venture includes a reduction in demand for crypto trading services in the Southeast Asian country. Official data reveals a significant drop in monthly trading volume at licensed digital-asset operators in Thailand, falling from over 250 billion baht in November 2021 to 17 billion baht ($490 million) in September 2023. The number of active trading accounts has plummeted by 87% from the peak in 2021.Ratanavadi, whose net worth is estimated at $11 billion, believes that tighter regulatory oversight will restore investor confidence. Gulf Binance’s technology partner, Advanced Info Service Pcl, with its retail outlets, is expected to contribute to the joint venture’s marketing efforts.

news
Loading