South Korean FSC prohibits domestic securities firms from brokering spot bitcoin ETF

Chainlink, a prominent decentralized oracle network, has partnered with the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), a free zone and international financial center located on Al Maryah Island in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with a view towards further developing tokenization frameworks.Photo by Shubham Dhage on UnsplashCompliant tokenization frameworksAccording to an announcement on the ADGM website, the international financial center signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Chainlink. It claimed that the collaboration marks “a major step in advancing compliant tokenisation frameworks.” Chainlink provides a suite of services. Central to that is the delivery of real-world data feeds into blockchain networks. ADGM believes that through the partnership, projects located within the free zone will be able to access this technology, while the ADGM’s Registration Authority will ensure regulatory compliance. The CEO of the ADGM Registration Authority, Hamad Sayah Al Mazrouei, said that the strategic alliance is a significant step towards ADGM leadership in blockchain innovation. He added: “By collaborating with Chainlink, we are aiming to set a global benchmark that spearheads transparency, security, and trust across the blockchain space.” The collaboration includes plans to host events and workshops aimed at educating the blockchain sector within the UAE. The two parties also aspire to the initiative, sparking greater dialogue on regulatory matters relative to blockchain, artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. Global collaborationsThis is the latest in a long list of collaborations that Chainlink has entered into, relative to asset tokenization. In October, it partnered with Singapore’s DigiFT, an exchange dedicated to tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). The following month, it completed a pilot program alongside financial messaging service SWIFT and UBS Asset Management under the umbrella of the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) Project Guardian. The project concerned itself with the settlement of tokenized funds. Earlier in 2024, Chainlink partnered with U.S. financial market infrastructure firm DTCC on the Smart NAV pilot project. The initiative centered on the creation and issuance of tokenized funds, counting JPMorgan, State Street, BNY Mellon, Invesco and Franklin Templeton among its participants. In the UAE, Chainlink has been added as a member of the Digital Asset Lab of one of the country’s largest banking groups, Emirates NBD. For its part, the ADGM has also been on the front foot with regard to tokenization initiatives. Its Regulatory Authority has established a regulatory framework with regard to asset tokenization, with an emphasis on investor protection. In October of last year, RWA tokenization platform Realize launched the financial center’s first tokenized U.S. treasury bill fund. At the time, the ADGM said that the development highlighted an objective for the region in becoming the global market leader where RWA tokenization is concerned. The ADGM began operations in 2015 with its own legal system. As of the end of 2024, the financial center hosted 134 fund and asset managers. Market maker and Web3 investment firm DWF Labs moved its headquarters from Singapore to Abu Dhabi’s ADGM at the end of last year, citing the goal of wanting to expand tokenized RWA-based projects as one of the reasons for the move.

PDAX gears up for trading surge amidst Binance market exitThe Philippine Digital Asset Exchange (PDAX), an order book exchange, is planning to take full advantage of Binance’s regulatory issues in the Philippines, with the expectation of an uptick in trading volume as a direct consequence.Photo by iSawRed on UnsplashMarket opportunityAccording to a Filipino English-language broadsheet publication, The Daily Tribune, PDAX CEO Nichel Gaba sees the exit of Binance, flagged by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as an unauthorized exchange in the Philippines, as a pivotal moment for local virtual asset service providers (VASPs) to expand their market presence. Gaba envisions that the anticipated migration of traders from Binance could propel the country’s cryptocurrency trading volume to an estimated $6 billion by 2024.Data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) demonstrates that there are currently 17 VASPs in the Philippines, with 10 operational and seven inactive. As one of the operational ones, PDAX is preparing for the expected growth in the local sector.The SEC in the Philippines has been actively working towards imposing a ban on Binance, citing various issues both locally and internationally. Gaba predicts that this development will prompt a substantial number of Filipino cryptocurrency traders to seek alternative, legitimate trading platforms. Gaba stated:“Now that Binance is being banned, there are a lot of users wondering where they can go and the best option for them is to go to a licensed exchange like PDAX. Our strategy as a company is to focus on being the best alternative.”Binance ban countdownAccording to local news outlet BitPinas, the head of the Philippines SEC, Kelvin Lee, clarified that Binance and any other unregistered exchange issued with an advisory have three months before they are banned from the country.Addressing the confusion surrounding the ban during a panel discussion on Wednesday, Lee stated that the ban would be in effect three months from the issuance date of Nov. 29. In that way, time has been allowed for feedback and potential extensions.While the original recommendation was for a shorter transition period, Lee extended it, considering the upcoming Christmas holiday, stating, “Not to make it hard for Filipino investors during that time.”Two additional exchanges bannedIn addition to Binance, Lee mentioned that OctaFX and MiTrade, along with other exchanges that have received advisories for unregistered operations, will also face bans after three months. The local SEC disclosed having a sizable list of unregistered exchanges that will gradually emerge.Responding to criticisms of the ban, given that some users find Binance to be “cheaper” than other registered exchanges, Lee emphasized the importance of compliance costs and consumer protection. He urged local investors to “invest in registered entities” among the 17 VASPs registered in the country that offer fiat-to-crypto services.The BSP-regulated VASPs are expected to process crypto assets worth approximately $3 billion by the end of the year. However, this estimate does not take into account unregulated transactions occurring outside of VASP channels.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.