Ripple supports Japanese Web3 initiative & crypto research within APAC

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

As part of the celebration of Holi, the Hindu festival of colors, the Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) is unveiling a series of colorful NFT tickets for the Lucknow to Delhi train service. Governed by the Ministry of Railways, IRCTC is a central public sector enterprise in India. Taking to the X social media platform on March 13, the railway company offered a sneak peek into these NFTs, showcasing sketches of iconic landmarks from both Delhi and Lucknow against vividly shaded backgrounds.Photo by Johannes Plenio on UnsplashLimited-time ticketing offeringCommencing March 20, passengers booking tickets for Tejas trains numbered 82501 and 82502 will have the opportunity to access these exclusive NFTs, with the initiative set to conclude on April 2. In its social media post, the IRCTC outlined the additional perks accompanying these NFT tickets, stating:"These tickets are not merely digital souvenirs. ... They symbolize our dedication to enriching your journey experiences, allowing you to personalize your travel memories with your own photographs and enjoy exclusive offers from handpicked brands." As of now, the IRCTC has not officially confirmed whether these NFT tickets will be complimentary with ticket purchases or if passengers will need to make additional payments to acquire these digital collectibles. Polygon and HyperledgerNFTs, or non-fungible tokens, are digital assets built on blockchain networks. Earlier this year, the IRCTC collaborated with NFTtrace, a service offered by Bangalore-based blockchain development firm ChainCode Consulting, to offer NFT tickets for journeys to the Hindu sacred city of Ayodhya. The tickets were presented as more than mere travel documents but as cherished mementos of divine experiences. The NFTtrace website stated:"More than just a ticket to Ayodhya Dham - a souvenir of the divine Shree Ramotsav. Treasure the pious memories of Lord Shree Rama's arrival forever, with Blockchain NFT.”On that occasion, the NFT certificates were minted on the Polygon blockchain. Indian Railways has been exploring blockchain technology for some time now. Last March, the National Academy of Indian Railways partnered with Polygon to conduct a workshop aimed at raising awareness about the benefits of blockchain in railway industries. Polygon outlined that the integration of blockchain within the Indian railway system was the beginning of a new era that moves the technology towards mass adoption.In this latest instance, the NFTtrace platform is involved once again. However, this time around, the NFTs will be minted on the Hyperledger blockchain. Ava Labs, the developer of the Avalanche layer one blockchain, has expressed its interest in developing ticketing-related blockchain applications in India. Last October the firm highlighted blockchain-based ticketing as one of a number of areas it wanted to concentrate on in an expansion within India. Conventional firms in the travel industry have been experimenting with the technology on an ongoing basis in recent times. In 2023 Japan’s largest airline All Nipon Airways (ANA) launched its own NFT marketplace. Argentinian budget airline Flybondi took the decision to offer NFT-based tickets in 2023 in a partnership with NFT ticketing firm TravelX.

Harvest Global to establish fixed income tokenized fundHong Kong investment firm Harvest Global Investments, in partnership with Meta Lab HK, is set to offer a tokenized U.S. dollar bond fund.The collaboration between Harvest Global Investments (HGI), an affiliate of Harvest Fund Management, and Meta Lab HK, backed by Harvest Digital Assets, marks a significant development in the crypto investment landscape within Hong Kong and the broader Asian region.Photo by Giorgio Trovato on UnsplashFirst fixed-income tokenized fund from Chinese institutionMeta Lab HK announced details of the new offering, detailed in a Nov. 22 post on X (formerly Twitter). The fund targets professional investors and will concentrate on U.S. dollar bonds with an investment-grade rating. Meta Lab wrote:”We have learned that this will be the first fixed-income tokenized fund introduced by a Chinese financial institution in Asia with a tokenization arrangement. The fund is exclusively available to professional investors and primarily invests in investment grade U.S. dollar bonds.”Meta Lab added, “The offering is set to be managed by HGI, a subsidiary of Harvest Fund in Hong Kong, with Meta Lab HK providing the tokenization solution.”The tokenization of the fund, a process transforming traditional financial assets into digital tokens, is expected to enhance accessibility and efficiency for investors. The notification to Hong Kong’s securities regulator has been duly completed, underscoring the compliance and regulatory adherence of the initiative.The move comes amidst a series of noteworthy developments emerging from Asia, occurring against the backdrop of persistent regulatory challenges facing the cryptocurrency industry in the United States.CoinFund market entryThis announcement follows closely on the heels of CoinFund, a New York-based investment firm, which revealed its plans to expand services into Asia earlier this week. Choosing Hong Kong as the inaugural location for this expansion, CoinFund cited the city’s appeal to crypto talents as a key factor. As Asia takes strides in pioneering tokenized funds, it suggests a competitive landscape in digital asset development that could rival the United States.It’s likely that Hong Kong is providing a workable environment for Harvest Global to take this tokenized product to market. In August, the local regulator, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), published a report where it indicated an interest in pursuing tokenization as a means to improve aspects of the bond market. The report presented outcomes of Project Evergreen, an initiative the HKMA had been running to examine the potential of tokenization, which also incorporated the launch of a first-of-its-kind tokenized green bond.Regional tokenization interestRecent weeks have also seen further efforts being made within the Asian region in terms of bond tokenization. Last week, SC Ventures, the Singaporean investment subsidiary of British banking group Standard Chartered, unveiled a new platform called Libeara. That platform is working towards the launch of the first-ever tokenized Singapore dollar government bond fund.In the same week, the Bureau of the Treasury in the Philippines announced that it is issuing $179 million in one-year tokenized bonds, with the bonds being facilitated by the Development Bank of the Philippines and the Land Bank of the Philippines.