Japan eyes crypto tax reform as macro headwinds pressure digital asset markets
The Japanese government and ruling coalition have begun coordinating plans to introduce a flat 20% separate tax on cryptocurrency gains, based on a Dec. 1 report by Nikkei cited by CoinDesk Japan. The change is expected to be reflected in the 2026 tax reform outline.
Lower crypto taxes, aligned with stocks
Under the proposal, income from crypto trading would be taxed in line with traditional financial instruments such as stocks. This would mark a notable decrease from the current regime, under which cryptocurrency gains are treated in principle as miscellaneous income, combined with salary and other earnings, and taxed on a comprehensive basis at rates that can climb to around 55% including local taxes.
Policymakers are reportedly treating the move toward separate taxation as contingent on the establishment of a stronger investor-protection framework through tighter regulation. The planned reforms are also seen as potentially laying the groundwork for the eventual domestic approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by crypto assets.
Market pullback deepens on policy signals
The more favorable tax outlook for investors came against a weaker market backdrop. According to CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market capitalization declined about 1.73% over the past 24 hours, extending a pullback that followed recent communications from the central banks of Japan and China.
In a Dec. 1 report by Reuters, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank intended to consider the possibility of an interest-rate increase at its next policy meeting. His comments are interpreted as suggesting a potential shift toward higher rates in December, prompting concern that yen-funded carry trades could begin to be unwound. Such trades typically involve borrowing yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets, and their reversal can create pressure on broader asset markets.
In a separate weekend statement, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) restated that digital asset trading remains illegal in China and highlighted what it described as a renewed pickup in speculative crypto activity. The central bank also singled out stablecoins as a source of risk, pointing to concerns about fraud, money laundering, and unauthorized cross-border capital flows that could undermine Beijing’s efforts to maintain capital controls.
Against this policy backdrop, major cryptocurrencies moved in mixed directions. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin inched up around 1.02%, Ethereum declined about 0.86%, and XRP fell roughly 0.9%.
Analysts split amid weak market activity
Analysts and market commentators continued to diverge on the implications of the latest pullback. Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested on X that Bitcoin may be entering a deeper corrective phase similar to those seen in past bull markets. He cited historical instances of “exponential decay” and suggested the price could retrace toward $50,000 before potentially advancing to the $200,000–$250,000 range in the next rally cycle.
Author Robert Kiyosaki, known for “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” reiterated his preference for assets such as gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum in a Nov. 29 post on X, linking this stance to his view that the Japanese carry trade had effectively run its course. Roughly a week before that message, he had disclosed selling about $2.25 million worth of Bitcoin at around $90,000 per coin, noting that his initial purchase price had been close to $6,000.
By contrast, long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff continued to argue in favor of precious metals. He contended that gold derives inherent value from industrial and commercial uses tied to its physical properties, including conductivity, ease of shaping, and resistance to corrosion, while maintaining that Bitcoin lacks practical utility and instead depends on investor belief.
SwanDesk CEO Jacob King, another skeptic of the asset, offered an even more pessimistic assessment. He said he did not expect Bitcoin to revisit its previous all-time high and characterized the current decline as the final bear market before the asset ultimately fades from relevance.
Shorter-term indicators have reinforced expectations for muted trading conditions. According to CNBC, Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl pointed to a decline in open interest for perpetual futures, interpreting it as a sign of reduced speculative positioning and leverage. He also highlighted relatively subdued trading volumes on both centralized and decentralized exchanges, suggesting that near-term market activity is likely to remain restrained.
