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NVT Ratio Signals Overvalued BTCThe network value to transaction (NVT) ratio of Bitcoin, which has been staying at a high level since the beginning of the year, has signaled its overvaluation, according to Yonhap Infomax.However, some argue that this will not necessarily lead to a crypto winter, considering that the nature of Bitcoin as an asset has changed and there is no sign of overheating in other indicators.©Pexels/PixabayPrice and NVT ratio correlationYonhap Infomax found out that the correlation between the NVT ratio and the price of Bitcoin over the past six years is -0.35. A value of 1 represents a completely positive correlation, while a value of -1 represents a completely negative correlation.Extending this period to 2010 makes the correlation close to 0, but during the early years, NVT ratios showed high volatility, shooting up to four digits. Such a high volatility doesn’t suggest much correlation. Until 2021, there was a high correlation of up to -0.44.The NVT ratio is calculated by dividing the market cap by the transacted volume. Conceptually, it is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio for the stock market.In 2017, when the crypto market was bullish, the average Bitcoin NVT ratio was 7.3. This number became 8.7 in 2021 when the market experienced a similar pattern. In retrospect, single-digit NVT ratios usually hint at bullish markets.This year so far, Bitcoin has been relatively overvalued, given that the average NVT ratio is 23.6.BTC price recoveryWhen the crypto market sentiment lost its confidence due to the FTX bankruptcy last year, the price of Bitcoin went down to $15,000. It later recovered to the near $30,000 level. The Bitcoin price once had reached an all-time high in 2021, surpassing $65,000.The years that manifested similar patterns as this year were 2018 and 2019. In those years, the Bitcoin NVT ratio plateaued around 20.Uncertain outlookThe NVT ratio itself could point to a possible crypto winter, but researchers say it’s hard to say.Jang Kyung-pil, a research analyst at crypto data platform Xangle, said that people now consider Bitcoin as a store of value rather than a means of transactions, pointing out that BTC’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has hit the bottom at 0.84 and now reached 1.4. According to Jang, MVRV values under 1 indicate undervaluation and those above 3 indicate overvaluation.Jung Seok-moon, head of the research center at crypto exchange Korbit, said that the current NVT ratio signals BTC overvaluation. He added that the Fed is likely to turn dovish in its monetary policy, which would prompt a strong BTC uptrend.

Two Russian nationals have been referred to prosecutors in South Korea for allegedly facilitating the illegal transfer of roughly 58 billion won ($42.2 million) to Russia using USDT, a U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin. According to a report by KBS News, the Seoul branch of the Korea Customs Service (KCS) announced the charges on May 22, citing violations of the country’s Foreign Exchange Transaction Act. The suspects, a man and a woman both in their 40s, reportedly operated an unauthorized money exchange business to carry out the transactions.Photo by Polina Tankilevitch on PexelsOver 6K transactionsAuthorities suspect the pair of repeatedly using USDT to conduct cross-border transfers between South Korea and Russia. From January 2023 to July 2023, the duo allegedly completed 6,156 illegal remittance transactions, either sending funds abroad or receiving payments on behalf of others, totaling the full 58 billion won in question. Investigators revealed that the two suspects, who hold permanent residency in South Korea and have overseas Korean status, used the messaging app Telegram to solicit clients. When transferring money to Russia, they reportedly collected funds via kiosks in convenience stores that allow users to send money without a bank account. The collected cash was then used to purchase USDT to complete the remittances. According to customs officials, the suspects would either send the cryptocurrency directly to a crypto wallet specified by the customer, or forward it to accomplices in Russia. These accomplices would then convert the crypto to cash and distribute rubles to recipients through local channels. Illicit crypto use by businesses The operation also handled export payments for South Korean businesses. The suspects reportedly accepted payments from Russian importers on behalf of Korean used car dealers and cosmetics exporters. In these cases, associates in Russia would collect ruble payments from importers, convert the funds into USDT and send the cryptocurrency to contacts in Korea. The funds were then exchanged for Korean won and deposited into the accounts of the businesses. Customs officials believe that the group’s services became particularly appealing after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. In the wake of U.S. and international sanctions against Russia, legitimate financial channels for cross-border transactions became restricted, prompting some companies and individuals to turn to illegal alternatives. The Korean export companies involved in these transactions have been fined. The Seoul Customs Office emphasized that illegal money exchange operations are often exploited for criminal activities such as drug trafficking, voice phishing and gambling. In response, the agency committed to stronger enforcement and pledged to spare no effort in combating unlawful financial operations. Scams grow inside the borderThe surge in crypto-related financial crimes in South Korea extends beyond cross-border transactions. According to a recent report by Maeil Business Newspaper, Kakao Pay—a local mobile payment platform—has detected around 70,000 cases of malicious apps linked to virtual assets over the past month. Of those, 80% were associated with Ponzi schemes, where fraudsters lure victims with promises of high returns before disappearing with the funds. A Kakao Pay spokesperson noted that new forms of security threats are emerging alongside the rapid growth of the crypto market, adding that the company is prioritizing the development of stronger security systems. 

In the ongoing legal tussle over cryptocurrency assets, the High Court of Singapore has rejected a plea by the bankrupt crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Arthur Cheong, the founder of Web3 investment firm DeFiance Capital. This ruling represents a pivotal moment in the $140 million dispute, shedding light on the ownership and control of assets, while building upon DeFiance Capital’s previous success back in August of last year in having its preference for jurisdiction in Singapore endorsed.Photo by Tingey Injury Law Firm on UnsplashRecognizing assets held in trustOn Jan. 26, a Singapore judge ruled against 3AC's request to have Cheong’s claim thrown out, stating that DeFiance Capital has adequately demonstrated the existence of a Singapore-based trust safeguarding its assets. This revelation could potentially shield DeFiance Capital from 3AC's liquidators, marking a crucial juncture in the legal battle. The dispute traces back to an agreement where Cheong was set to launch an independent fund on the 3AC Group platform, with ownership and control vested in DeFiance Capital. This fund, leveraging 3AC's infrastructure, faced disagreements over the transfer of certain assets, whose undisclosed value became a point of contention in court documents. The downfall of the $10 billion 3AC hedge fund, responsible for the "Super Cycle" thesis predicting perpetual crypto price increases, had widespread repercussions in the crypto industry. DeFiance Capital bore the brunt of this collapse and the recent court ruling brings the firm closer to resolving the aftermath favorably. The ongoing argument holds strategic importance for DeFiance Capital, as the investment firm challenges any legal obligation for its shareholders to compensate 3AC creditors. "Wassielawyer," a pseudonymous restructuring attorney advising DeFiance Capital's founder Arthur Cheong, highlighted the significance of this stance on social media. Positive signThe judge's acknowledgment of the trust, while not conclusive, is viewed as a positive sign for DeFiance Capital. In a series of posts on the X social media platform, Wassielawyer outlined on Thursday that he sees this as "much-needed vindication" for Cheong, signaling a potential turn in favor of the investment firm. Wassielawyer emphasized that DeFiance Capital merely utilized 3AC's legal structure, without commingling operations. This distinction becomes crucial as carefully drafted legal documents form the basis for 3AC creditors attempting to seize DeFiance Capital funds. The restructuring professional added:”[DeFiance Capital] have on the basis of the substantive facts, ran an argument that the assets of DCs should not be used to pay back 3AC creditors. This eventuality would be manifestly unjust, enriching the creditors of 3AC at the expense of innocent DC investors.” Once a major player in the crypto hedge fund arena, 3AC's demise resulted from exposure to Terra, staked Ethereum and Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust. The bankruptcy filing on June 30, 2022, marked the end of an era for the once-mighty fund. Established in 2020, DeFiance Capital specializes in crypto investments, focusing on decentralized finance and GameFi. It has supported projects such as dYdX, Aave and Lido. This decision establishes a precedent for similar cases, particularly in jurisdictions like Singapore, emerging as pivotal hubs for cryptocurrency and blockchain-related activities. The outcome holds implications for how such legal disputes will be handled in the future, shaping the landscape of crypto-related legal proceedings.