Tiger Research: Strategy can withstand BTC drop to $23K

Strategy can withstand a drop in Bitcoin's price to a breakeven point of $23,000 before its total asset value falls below its liabilities, according to a report from Asia-based Web3 research and consulting firm Tiger Research. The report notes that for BTC to reach this level, it would need to plummet by more than 70% from its current price. Tiger Research added that Strategy has secured a relatively stable operational foundation through a diversified financing structure combining preferred stock, convertible notes, and at-the-market offerings. However, the stability of newer listed companies that have adopted crypto accumulation strategies has not yet been verified. The report emphasized that the survival of these companies is determined by their financial statements and capital structure, not simply by price levels or short-term stock performance. The report also highlighted a potential risk centered on 2028, when the call options (holder puts) on a large volume of convertible notes issued by Strategy since last year are concentrated. If BTC's price falls near Strategy's insolvency line amid worsening market sentiment, investors could exercise these options and demand early repayment. In this scenario, Strategy would need to immediately raise up to $6.4 billion in cash. While safeguards exist, such as paying preferred dividends in stock, a worst-case scenario could force the company to liquidate a volume of BTC equivalent to 20-30% of global daily spot trading, which would shock the market. Therefore, the report concluded that 2028 could be a critical turning point determining not only Strategy's survival but also the volatility of the entire Bitcoin ecosystem.