Hong Kong criminalizing promotion of unlicensed stablecoins

Gate.io Threatens Legal Action Against SpeculatorsGate.io, the erstwhile legacy Chinese cryptocurrency exchange currently headquartered in the Cayman Islands, has issued a stern warning to individuals spreading rumors of imminent bankruptcy.The exchange intends to take legal action against those responsible for causing panic among investors by disseminating baseless rumors without any concrete source of information. This announcement, originally written in Turkish, was posted on Gate.io’s official Twitter account on June 4.Photo by Kai Pilger on UnsplashInsolvency rumorsThe insolvency rumors surrounding Gate.io emerged following a series of events involving Multichain, a troubled cross-chain protocol. Multichain has been facing technical difficulties since May 24, when a node issue resulted in transaction delays. Several days later, the Multichain team revealed that they were unable to contact their CEO to access the servers and resolve the problem.These circumstances fueled speculation that the protocol’s leadership had been arrested and that Chinese authorities had seized over $1.5 billion in smart contract funds.On May 24, data from blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence indicated a significant inflow of Multichain tokens ($MULTI) from Gate.io’s platform. In response to mounting concerns, Gate.io categorically denied any liquidity issues on May 31. The exchange asserted that its operations were running smoothly and that withdrawals were not a problem. Despite reports on Twitter and Telegram channels of traders withdrawing funds, Gate.io’s trading volume has remained relatively stable in recent days.As of now, Gate.io’s native token, GateToken ($GT), is trading at $4.01, representing a 18% decline over the past week, according to CoinGecko data. Gate.io, which although headquartered in the Cayman Islands, has recently expanded its presence to Hong Kong, Turkey, and Dubai.Multichain falloutThe ongoing issues faced by Multichain have prompted other cryptocurrency exchanges to take action. Binance, for example, suspended deposits for 10 bridged tokens on the BNB Smart Chain, Fantom, Ethereum, and Avalanche blockchain networks on May 25. Furthermore, transaction downtime compelled the Fantom Foundation to remove 449,740 $MULTI ($2.4 million) from liquidity on the decentralized exchange SushiSwap.Gate.io’s firm denial of insolvency rumors coupled with its threat of legal action underscores the exchange’s determination to combat the spread of this speculation. The exchange is seeking to protect the interests of its investors and maintain the stability of its operations.All stakeholders need to rely on continued vigilance in the crypto space. However, if Gate.io is to be afforded the benefit of the doubt in this instance, then it could be interpreted that it is demonstrating a commitment to transparency and swift action in the face of seemingly baseless rumors. On that basis, the firm’s response could be perceived as a demonstration of its resolve to navigate the challenges presented by the Multichain situation and uphold its reputation as a reliable cryptocurrency exchange.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

Blockchain Council Exec: Philippines Poised for Crypto AdoptionDonald Lim, the Founder of the Blockchain Council of the Philippines (BCP), believes that the country has all the necessary elements for mainstream crypto and blockchain adoption.In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Lim discussed the potential for crypto adoption in the Philippines and explained why he is optimistic about the success of blockchain projects in the country.Photo by Krisia on PexelsFinding its place in blockchainAccording to Lim, the BCP recognized the global shift towards Web3 and organized the Philippine Blockchain Week to explore the ecosystem’s potential. That activity revealed to the organizers that the country has a vibrant community eager to find its place in the world of blockchain. Lim expressed confidence in the Philippines becoming the blockchain capital of Asia, citing the country’s technical expertise, young population with a median age of 25, and its ability to adapt quickly, as demonstrated by the popularity of the play-to-earn game Axie Infinity.Crypto interestAxie Infinity, a play-to-earn blockchain game, gained significant traction in the Philippines in 2021, with 40% of its player base coming from the country. This increased awareness of Web3 concepts and the creation of crypto wallets. Additionally, research carried out recently suggests the Filipinos are among the most interested in crypto in the region.Lim noted that international organizations have been eager to enter the Philippine market due to favorable demographics and the government’s open stance on crypto and blockchain. The executive emphasized that the government is not seeking to stifle innovation in the sector. On the contrary, it welcomes blockchain and Web3 projects, creating an environment conducive to their growth.Ethan Rose, founder of Pouch, a wallet service supporting the Bitcoin Lightning Network in the Philippines, corroborated this sentiment. Pouch has successfully onboarded over 400 businesses in the country to accept Bitcoin payments. While the onboarding of Filipino merchants into the crypto space is a positive step, Lim believes that it will take time before living solely on Bitcoin or crypto becomes a reality.Adoption inevitableHowever, he remains optimistic about the future, stating that it is only a matter of time before crypto adoption snowballs into something more significant.Lim highlighted the need for infrastructure development, expecting it to mature within the next four to five years. As the infrastructure improves, crypto will not only be used for payments but also for activities such as purchasing non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and participating in the metaverse. This comprehensive adoption will pave the way for a crypto-powered future in the Philippines.Philippine regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), recently delayed publication of its crypto regulatory framework. However, it appears that the move stems from an abundance of caution in getting the regulation right. Earlier this year, Robert De Guzman, Head of Legal Compliance at Philippines-based cryptocurrency exchange, Coins.ph, expressed his optimism that the authorities are developing a progressive regulatory framework for crypto in the Southeast Asian country.The Philippines shows promising potential for crypto and blockchain adoption, fueled by its young population, technical expertise, and supportive government. As the infrastructure continues to evolve, crypto adoption is expected to expand beyond payments, encompassing various aspects of the digital economy.